Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.2.1 Impacts and Risks of a 1.5°C Warmer World: Implications for Poverty and Livelihoods ===

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Global warming of 1.5°C will have consequences for sustainable development, poverty and inequalities. This includes residual risks, limits to adaptation, and losses and damages (Cross-Chapter Box 12 in this chapter; see Glossary). Some regions have already experienced a 1.5°C warming, with impacts on food and water security, health and other components of sustainable development ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4). Climate change is also already affecting poorer subsistence communities through decreases in crop production and quality, increases in crop pests and diseases, and disruption to culture (Savo et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r18|18]]</sup> . It disproportionally affects children and the elderly and can increase gender inequality (Kaijser and Kronsell, 2014; Vinyeta et al., 2015; Carter et al., 2016; Hanna and Oliva, 2016; Li et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r19|19]]</sup> .

At 1.5°C warming, compared to current conditions, further negative consequences are expected for poor people, and inequality and vulnerability ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Hallegatte and Rozenberg (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r20|20]]</sup> report that by 2030 (roughly approximating a 1.5°C warming), 122 million additional people could experience extreme poverty, based on a ‘poverty scenario’ of limited socio-economic progress, comparable to the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) 4 (inequality), mainly due to higher food prices and declining health, with substantial income losses for the poorest 20% across 92 countries. Pretis et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r21|21]]</sup> estimate negative impacts on economic growth in lower-income countries at 1.5°C warming, despite uncertainties. Impacts are likely to occur simultaneously across livelihood, food, human, water and ecosystem security ( ''limited evidence, high agreement'' ) (Byers et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r22|22]]</sup> , but the literature on interacting and cascading effects remains scarce (Hallegatte et al., 2014; O’Neill et al., 2017b; Reyer et al., 2017a, b) <sup>[[#fn:r23|23]]</sup> .

Chapter 3 outlines future impacts and risks for ecosystems and human systems, many of which could also undermine sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty and hunger, and to protect health and ecosystems. Chapter 3 findings (see Section 3.5.2.1) suggest increasing Reasons for Concern from moderate to high at a warming of 1.1° to 1.6°C, including for indigenous people and their livelihoods, and ecosystems in the Arctic (O’Neill et al., 2017b) <sup>[[#fn:r24|24]]</sup> . In 2050, based on the Hadley Centre Climate Prediction Model 3 (HadCM3) and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1b scenario (roughly comparable to 1.5°C warming), 450 million more flood-prone people would be exposed to doubling in flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase substantially (Arnell and Gosling, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r25|25]]</sup> . For droughts, poor people are expected to be more exposed (85% in population terms) in a warming scenario greater than 1.5°C for several countries in Asia and southern and western Africa (Winsemius et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r26|26]]</sup> . In urban Africa, a 1.5°C warming could expose many households to water poverty and increased flooding (Pelling et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r27|27]]</sup> . At 1.5ºC warming, fisheries-dependent and coastal livelihoods, of often disadvantaged populations, would suffer from the loss of coral reefs (see Chapter 3, Box 3.4).

Global heat stress is projected to increase in a 1.5°C warmer world, and by 2030, compared to 1961–1990, climate change could be responsible for additional annual deaths of 38,000 people from heat stress, particularly among the elderly, and 48,000 from diarrhoea, 60,000 from malaria, and 95,000 from childhood undernutrition (WHO, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r28|28]]</sup> . Each 1°C increase could reduce work productivity by 1 to 3% for people working outdoors or without air conditioning, typically the poorer segments of the workforce (Park et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r29|29]]</sup> .

The regional variation in the ‘warming experience at 1.5°C’ (see Chapter 1, Section 1.3.1) is large (see Chapter 3, Section 3.3.2). Declines in crop yields are widely reported for Africa (60% of observations), with serious consequences for subsistence and rain-fed agriculture and food security (Savo et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r30|30]]</sup> . In Bangladesh, by 2050, damages and losses are expected for poor households dependent on freshwater fish stocks due to lack of mobility, limited access to land and strong reliance on local ecosystems (Dasgupta et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r31|31]]</sup> . Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are expected to experience challenging conditions at 1.5°C warming due to increased risk of internal migration and displacement and limits to adaptation (see Chapter 3, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12 in this chapter). An anticipated decline of marine fisheries of 3 million metric tonnes per degree warming would have serious regional impacts for the Indo-Pacific region and the Arctic (Cheung et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r32|32]]</sup> .

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