Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

== 11.1 Introduction ==

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This chapter assesses the observed impacts, projected risks, vulnerability and adaptation, and the implications for climate resilient development for the Australasia region, based on the literature published up to 1 September 2021. It should be read in conjunction with other Working Group (WG) II chapters, the climate science assessment in the WGI report and the greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation assessment in the WGIII report.

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=== 11.1.1 Context ===

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The Australasia region is defined as the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and territories of Australia and New Zealand. In both countries, climate adaptation is largely implemented at a sub-national level through the devolution of functions constitutionally or by statute, alongside disaster risk reduction ( [[#COAG--2011|COAG, 2011]] ; [[#Lawrence--2015|Lawrence et al., 2015]] ; [[#Macintosh--2015|Macintosh et al., 2015]] ).

Australia’s economy is dominated by financial and insurance services, education, mining, construction, tourism, health care and social assistance (ABS, 2018) with Australian exports accruing mostly from mining (ABS, 2018; ABS, 2019). In New Zealand, service industries, including tourism, collectively account for around two-thirds of GDP ( [[#NZ%20Treasury--2016|NZ Treasury, 2016]] ). The primary sector contributes 6% of New Zealand’s GDP and over half of the country’s export earnings ( [[#NZ%20Treasury--2016|NZ Treasury, 2016]] ).

Existing vulnerabilities expose and exacerbate inequalities between rural, regional and urban areas, Indigenous and non-Indigenous Peoples, those with health and disability needs, and between generations, incomes and health status, increasing the relative climate change risk faced by some groups and places ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Jones--2014|Jones et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bertram--2015|Bertram, 2015]] ; [[#Perry--2017|Perry, 2017]] ; [[#Hazledine--2018|Hazledine and Rashbrooke, 2018]] ).

Previous IPCC reports (Table 11.1) have documented observed climate impacts, projected risks, adaptation challenges and opportunities. This chapter presents more evidence of observed climate impacts and adaptation, better quantification of socioeconomic risks, new information about cascading and compounding risks, greater emphasis on adaptation enablers and barriers, and links to climate resilient development.

'''Table 11.1 |''' Summary of key conclusions from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) Australasia chapter ( [[#Reisinger--2014|Reisinger et al., 2014]] ) and relevant conclusions from the IPCC Special Reports on Global Warming of 1.5°C ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]] ), Climate Change and Land ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ) and Oceans and Cryosphere ( [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ).

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! Conclusions

! Report

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| Our regional climate is changing ( ''very high confidence'' ) and warming will continue through the 21st century ( ''virtually certain'' ) with more hot days, fewer cold days, less snow, less rainfall in southern Australia and the northeast of both of New Zealand’s islands, more rainfall in western New Zealand, more extreme rainfall, SLR, increased fire weather in southern Australia and across New Zealand and fewer cyclones but a greater proportion of intense cyclones.

| ( [[#Reisinger--2014|Reisinger et al., 2014]] )

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| Key risks include changes in the structure and composition of Australian coral reefs, loss of montane ecosystems, increased flood damage, reduced water resources in southern Australia, more deaths and infrastructure damage during heatwaves, more fire-related impacts on ecosystems and settlements in southern Australia and across New Zealand, greater risk to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems and reduced water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and southern Australia ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Benefits are projected for some sectors and locations ( ''high confidence'' ), including reduced winter mortality and energy demand for heating, increased forest growth and enhanced pasture productivity.

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| Adaptation is occurring and becoming mainstreamed in some planning processes ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptive capacity is considered generally high in many human systems, but adaptation implementation faces major barriers, especially for transformational responses ( ''high confidence'' ). Some synergies and trade-offs exist between different adaptation responses and between mitigation and adaptation, with interactions occurring both within and outside the region ( ''very high confidence'' ).

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| Vulnerability remains uncertain due to incomplete consideration of socioeconomic dimensions ( ''very high confidence'' ), including governance, institutions, patterns of wealth and ageing, access to technology and information, labour force participation and societal values.

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| Emissions reductions under Nationally Determined Contributions from signatories to the Paris Agreement are consistent with a global warming of 2.5°C–3.0°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Much deeper emission reductions are needed prior to 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. There are limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity for some human and natural systems at global warming of 1.5°C, with associated losses.

| ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]] )

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| Climate impacts will disproportionately affect the welfare of impoverished and vulnerable people because they lack adaptation resources. Strengthening the climate-action capacities of national and sub-national authorities, civil society, the private sector, Indigenous People and local communities can support implementation of actions.

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| Land-related responses that contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation can also combat desertification and land degradation and enhance food security.

| ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] )

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| Appropriate design of policies, institutions and governance systems at all scales can contribute to land-related adaptation and mitigation while facilitating the pursuit of climate-adaptive development pathways.

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| Mutually supportive climate and land policies have the potential to save resources, amplify social resilience, support ecological restoration and foster collaboration between stakeholders.

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| Near-term action to address climate change adaptation and mitigation, desertification, land degradation and food security can bring social, ecological, economic and development co-benefits. Delaying action (both mitigation and adaptation) will be more costly.

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| The rate of global mean SLR of 3.6 mm yr −1 for 2006–2015 is unprecedented over the last century. Extreme wave heights, coastal erosion and flooding have increased in the Southern Ocean by around 1.0 cm yr −1 over the period 1985–2018.

| ( [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] )

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| Some species of plants and animals have increased in abundance, shifted their range and established in new areas as glaciers receded and the snow-free season lengthened. Some cold-adapted or snow-dependent species have declined in abundance, increasing their risk of extinction, notably on mountain summits.

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| Many marine species have shifted their range and seasonal activities. Altered interactions between species have caused cascading impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning.

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| Mean SLR projections are higher by 0.1 m compared to AR5 under RCP8.5 in 2100. Extreme sea level events that are historically rare (once per century) are projected to occur frequently (at least once yr −1 ) at many locations by 2050.

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| Projected ecosystem responses include losses of species habitat and diversity and degradation of ecosystem functions. Warm water corals are at high risk already and are projected to transition to very high risk even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C.

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| Governance arrangements (e.g., marine protected areas, spatial plans and water management systems) are too fragmented across administrative boundaries and sectors to provide integrated responses to the increasing and cascading risks. Financial, technological, institutional and other barriers exist for implementing responses.

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| Enabling climate resilience and sustainable development depends critically on urgent and ambitious emissions reductions coupled with coordinated, sustained and increasingly ambitious adaptation actions. This includes better cooperation and coordination among governing authorities, education and climate literacy, sharing of information and knowledge, finance, addressing social vulnerability and equity, and institutional support.

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=== 11.1.2 Economic, Demographic and Social Trends ===

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Economic, demographic and sociocultural trends influence the exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Elrick-Barr--2016|Elrick-Barr et al., 2016]] ; [[#Smith--2016|Smith et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hayward--2017|Hayward, 2017]] ; B. Frame et al., 2018; [[#Plummer--2018|Plummer et al., 2018]] ; [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Gartin--2020|Gartin et al., 2020]] ). In the absence of proactive adaptation, climate change impacts are projected to worsen inequalities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups ( [[#Green--2009|Green et al., 2009]] ; [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ambrey--2017|Ambrey et al., 2017]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Socioeconomic inequality, low incomes and high levels of debt, poor health and disabilities increase vulnerability and limit adaptation ( [[#Hayward--2012|Hayward, 2012]] ) (11.7.2). A lack of services, such as schools and medical services, in poorer and rural areas and decision-making processes that privilege some voices over others exacerbate inequalities ( [[#Kearns--2009|Kearns et al., 2009]] ; [[#Hinkson--2018|Hinkson and Vincent, 2018]] ).

Changes to the composition and location of different demographic groups in the region contribute to increased exposure or vulnerability to climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). Australia’s population reached 25 million in 2018 and is projected to grow to 37.4–49.2 million by 2066, with most growth in major cities (accounting for 81% of Australia’s population growth from 2016 to 2017) (ABS, 2018), although COVID-19 is expected to slow the growth rate ( [[#CoA--2020c|CoA, 2020c]] ). The highest growth rates outside of major cities occurred mostly in coastal regions ( [[#ABS--2017|ABS, 2017]] ), which have built assets exposed to sea level rise (SLR). New Zealand’s population was 5.1 million at the end of 2020 and is projected to increase to 6.0–6.5 million by 2068, assuming no marked changes in migration patterns ( [[#Stats%20NZ--2016|Stats NZ, 2016]] ; [[#Stats%20NZ--2021|Stats NZ, 2021]] ). Although the population densities of both countries are much lower than other OECD countries, they are highly urbanised with over 86% living in urban areas in both countries ( [[#Productivity%20Commission--2017|Productivity Commission, 2017]] ; World Bank, 2018). This proportion is projected to increase to over 90% by 2050 ( [[#UN%20DESA--2019|UN DESA, 2019]] ) mostly in coastal areas ( [[#Rouse--2017|Rouse et al., 2017]] ). Consideration of climate change impacts when planning and managing such growth and associated infrastructure could help avoid new vulnerabilities being created, particularly from wildfires, sea level rise (SLR), heat stress and flooding.

The region has an increasingly diverse population through the arrival of migrants, including those from the Pacific, whose innovations, skills and transnational networks enhance their and others’ adaptive capacity ( [[#De--2016|De et al., 2016]] ; [[#Fatorić--2017|Fatorić et al., 2017]] ; [[#Barnett--2018|Barnett and McMichael, 2018]] ), although language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage can create vulnerabilities for some (11.7.2).

Climate change inaction exacerbates intergenerational inequity, including prospects for the current younger population ( [[#Hayward--2012|Hayward, 2012]] ). Increasing transient worker populations (ABS, 2018) may diminish social networks and adaptive capacity ( [[#Jiang--2017|Jiang et al., 2017]] ). The region has an ageing population and increasing numbers of people living on their own who are highly vulnerable to extreme events, including heat stress and flooding ( [[#Zhang--2013|Zhang et al., 2013]] ).

Socioeconomic trends are affected by global mega trends ( [[#KPMG--2021|KPMG, 2021]] ), which are expected to influence the region’s ability to implement climate change adaptation strategies ( [[#World%20Economic%20Forum--2014|World Economic Forum, 2014]] ). Digital technological advances have potential benefits for building adaptive capacity ( [[#Deloitte--2017a|Deloitte, 2017a]] ).

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