Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

===== Globally comprehensive studies =====

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The UNFCCC Secretariat has assessed the aggregate effect of NDCs multiple times. The first report considered the intended NDCs in relation to 2°C ( [[#UNFCCC--2015b|UNFCCC 2015b]] ), whereas the second considered NDCs also in relation to 1.5°C ( [[#UNFCCC--2016b|UNFCCC 2016b]] ). New submissions and updates of NDCs in 2020/21 are assessed in Section 4.2.2.5. A number of globally comprehensive studies ( [[#den%20Elzen--2016|den Elzen et al. 2016]] ; [[#Luderer--2016|Luderer et al. 2016]] ; [[#Rogelj--2016|Rogelj et al. 2016]] , 2017; [[#Vandyck--2016|Vandyck et al. 2016]] ; [[#Rose--2017|Rose et al. 2017]] ; Baumstark et al. 2021) which estimate aggregate emissions outcomes of NDCs and current policies have previously been assessed in Cross-Chapter-Box 11 of IPCC SR1.5.

According to the assessment in this report, studies projecting emissions of current policies based on pre-COVID assumptions lead to median global GHG emissions of 60 GtCO 2 -eq with a full range of 54–68 by 2030 and original unconditional and conditional NDCs submitted in 2015/16 to 57 (49–63) and 54 (50–60) GtCO 2 -eq, respectively ( ''robust evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) (Table 4.1). Globally comprehensive and national-level studies project emissions of current policies and NDCs to 2025 and 2030 and, in general, are in good agreement about projected emissions at the country level.

These estimates are close to the ones provided by the IPCC SR1.5, Cross-Chapter-Box 11, and the UNEP emissions gap report ( [[#UNEP--2020a|UNEP 2020a]] ). [[#footnote-003|3]]

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