Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.4.4 Southeast Asia ====

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Southeast Asia is a region highly vulnerable to increased flooding in the context of sea level rise (Arnell et al., 2016; Brown et al., 2016, 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r1181|1181]]</sup> . Risks from increased flooding are projected to rise from 1.5°C to 2°C of warming ( ''medium confidence'' ), with substantial increases projected beyond 2°C (Arnell et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1182|1182]]</sup> . Southeast Asia displays statistically significant differences in projected changes in heavy precipitation, runoff and high flows at 1.5°C versus 2°C of warming, with stronger increases occurring at 2°C (Section 3.3.3; Wartenburger et al., 2017; Döll et al., 2018; Seneviratne et al., 2018c) <sup>[[#fn:r1183|1183]]</sup> ; thus, this region is considered a hotspot in terms of increases in heavy precipitation between these two global temperature levels ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Schleussner et al., 2016b; Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1184|1184]]</sup> . For Southeast Asia, 2°C of warming by 2040 could lead to a decline by one-third in per capita crop production associated with general decreases in crop yields (Nelson et al., 2010) <sup>[[#fn:r1185|1185]]</sup> . However, under 1.5°C of warming, significant risks for crop yield reduction in the region are avoided (Schleussner et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1186|1186]]</sup> . These changes pose significant risks for poor people in both rural regions and urban areas of Southeast Asia (Section 3.4.10.1), with these risks being larger at 2°C of global warming compared to 1.5°C ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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