Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-11 (section)

=== 11.9.1 Overview ===

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Sections 11.9.2, 11.9.3 and 11.9.4 provide brief summaries of the underlying evidence used to derive the regional assessments for temperature extremes, heavy precipitation events, and droughts, respectively. The assessments take into account evidence from studies based on global datasets (global studies), as well as regional studies. Global studies include analyses for all continents and AR6 regions with sufficient data coverage, and provide an important basis for cross-region consistency, as the same data and methods are used for all regions. However, individual regional studies may include additional information that is missed in global studies, and thus provide an important regional calibration for the assessment.

The assessments are presented using the calibrated confidence and likelihood language (Box 1.1). ''Low confidence'' is assessed when there is ''limited evidence'' , either because of a lack of available data in the region and/or a lack of relevant studies. ''Low confidence'' is also assessed when there is a lack of agreement on the evidence of a change, which may be due to large variability or inconsistent changes depending on the considered sub-regions, time frame, models, assessed metrics, or studies. In cases when the evidence is strongly contradictory, for example, with substantial regional changes of opposite sign, ‘mixed signal’ is indicated. With an assessment of ''low confidence'' , the direction of change is not indicated in the tables. A direction of change (increase or decrease) is provided with an assessment of ''medium confidence'' , ''high confidence'' , ''likely'' , or higher likelihood levels. Likelihood assessments are only provided in the case of ''high confidence'' . In some cases, there may be confidence in a small or no change.

For projections, changes are assessed at three global warming levels (GWLs; Cross-Chapter Box 11.1): 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C. The assessments use literature based both on GWL projections and scenario-based projections. In the case of literature on scenario-based projections, a mapping between scenarios/time frames and GWLs was performed, as documented in Cross-Chapter Box 11.1. Projections of changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are assessed relative to two different baselines: the recent past (1995–2014) and pre-industrial (1850–1900). With smaller changes relative to the variability, in particular because droughts happen on longer timescales compared to extremes of daily temperature and precipitation, it is more difficult to distinguish changes in drought relative to the recent past. As such, changes in droughts are assessed relative to the pre-industrial baseline, unless indicated otherwise.

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