Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== Atlas.7.1.5 Summary ====

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Significant warming trends between 0.2°C and 0.3°C per decade have been observed in the three reference regions of Central America in the last 30 years, with the largest increases in the North American Monsoon region ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Changes in mean precipitation rates are less consistent and long-term trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were observed in the total annual precipitation in part of the region.

Warming in the continental part of the region is projected to increase in the range of the mean global values for GWL of 1.5°C and 3°C, but in the Caribbean regional warming will be lower. Precipitation is projected to decrease with increasing GWLs, especially for CAR and SCA.

Projected change in mean annual precipitation shows a large spatial variability across Central America and the Caribbean. Under moderate future emissions overall negative but non-significant precipitation trends are projected for the 21st century ( ''low confidence'' ). Under higher-emissions scenarios and at higher GWLs, average precipitation is ''likely'' to decrease in most of the region, particularly in the north-western and central Caribbean and part of continental Central America, especially in SCA.

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