Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.4.5 Southern Europe and the Mediterranean ====

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The Mediterranean is regarded as a climate change hotspot, both in terms of projected stronger warming of the regional land-based hot extremes compared to the mean global temperature increase (e.g., Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1187|1187]]</sup> and in terms of of robust increases in the probability of occurrence of extreme droughts at 2°C vs 1.5°C global warming (Section 3.3.4). Low river flows are projected to decrease in the Mediterranean under 1.5°C of global warming (Marx et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1188|1188]]</sup> , with associated significant decreases in high flows and floods (Thober et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1189|1189]]</sup> , largely in response to reduced precipitation. The median reduction in annual runoff is projected to almost double from about 9% ( ''likely'' range 4.5–15.5%) at 1.5°C to 17% ( ''likely'' range 8–25%) at 2°C (Schleussner et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1190|1190]]</sup> . Similar results were found by Döll et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1191|1191]]</sup> . Overall, there is ''high confidence'' that strong increases in dryness and decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean and southern Europe would occur from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Sea level rise is expected to be lower for 1.5°C versus 2°C, lowering risks for coastal metropolitan agglomerations. The risks (assuming current adaptation) related to water deficit in the Mediterranean are high for global warming of 2°C but could be substantially reduced if global warming were limited to 1.5°C (Section 3.3.4; Guiot and Cramer, 2016; Schleussner et al., 2016b; Donnelly et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1192|1192]]</sup> .

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