Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-11 (section)

=== 11.9.2 Temperature Extremes ===

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Tables 11.4, 11.7, 11.10, 11.13, 11.16, and 11.19 include assessments for past temperature extremes and their attribution, as well as future projections. The evidence is mostly drawn from changes in metrics based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures, similar to those used in [[#11.3|Section 11.3]] . The regional assessments start from global studies that used consistent analyses for all regions globally with sufficient data. This includes [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al. (2020)]] for observed changes, and [[#Li--2021|Li et al. (2021)]] and the [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11 Chapter 11] Supplementary Material (11.SM) for projections with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Evidence from regional studies, and those based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble or CORDEX simulations, are then used to refine the confidence assessments. For attribution, Seong et al. (2020) provide a consistent analysis for AR6 regions, and Z. [[#Wang--2017a|Wang et al. (2017a)]] for SREX regions. Additional regional studies, including event attribution analyses ( [[#11.2|Section 11.2]] ), are used when available. In some regions that were not analysed in Seong et al. (2020), and those with no known event attribution studies, ''medium confidence'' of a human contribution is assessed: when there is strong evidence of changes from observations that are in the direction of model-projected changes for the future; when the magnitude of projected changes increases with global warming; and where there is no other evidence to the contrary. This assessment is further supported by an understanding of how temperature extremes change with the mean temperature and overwhelming evidence of a human contribution to the observed larger-scale changes in the mean temperature and temperature extremes.

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