Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.2.5 Arctic Non-Renewable Extractive Industries ====

<div id="section-3-5-2-5-arctic-non-renewable-extractive-industries-block-1"></div>

Climate change has resulted a limited response by non-renewable resource extraction industries and agencies in the Arctic to changes in sea ice, thawing permafrost, spring runoffs, and resultant timing of exploration, construction and use of ice roads, and infrastructure design (AHDR, 2014). In some regions, climate change has offered new development opportunities, although off-shore prospects remaining cost prohibitive given current world markets (Petrick et al., 2017) ''.'' (In the area covered by the Antarctic Treaty, exploitation of mineral resources is prohibited by the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.)

Climate change in some Arctic regions is facilitating easier access to natural resources (Section 3.5.2.3), which may generate financial capital for Arctic residents and their governments, including Indigenous peoples but also greater exposure to risks such as oil spills and increases in noise. Receding sea ice and glaciers has opened new possibilities for development, such as areas of receding glaciers of eastern Greenland (Smits et al., 2017). As mineral development commenced in Greenland, its home rule government developed environmental impact assessment protocols to provide for improved public participation (Forbes et al., 2015). Indigenous peoples are considered as non-state actors and in many, but not all cases, promote environmental protection in support of the sustainability of their traditional livelihoods. This protection is at times in opposition to the industrial development business sector, which is well-funded and lobbies strongly. Bilateral agreements for resource development in the Arctic are typically state dominated and controlled, and are negotiated with powerful non-state actors, such as state-dominated companies (Young, 2016). Among the non-state actors, new networks and economic forums have been established (Wehrmann, 2016). One example is the Arctic Economic Council, created by the Arctic Council during 2013–2015 as an independent organisation that facilitates Arctic business-to-business activities and supports economic development.

Several regional governments are assessing the long-term viability of ice roads, historically used for accessing mineral development sites, as well as some Arctic human settlements. In Northwest Territories, Canada, several ice roads are being replaced with all-season roads, with other replacements proposed. Assessing future conditions is key for planning and initiating new projects (Hori et al., 2018; Kiani et al., 2018) but is often constrained by uncertainties of available climate models (Mullan et al., 2017).

On the North Slope of Alaska, oil and gas development is now undergoing new expansion, while industry concurrently faces increasing challenges of climate change, such as shorter and warmer winters, the main season for oil exploration and production (Lilly, 2017). The method for building of ice roads on the North Slope has been somewhat modified to account for warmer temperatures during construction. There are also knowledge gaps in understanding implications of seismic studies with climate change on the landscape (Dabros et al., 2018). The issue of cumulative effects also raises questions of current practice of environmental impact assessment to evaluate potential cumulative effects (Kirkfeldt et al., 2016).

Lilly (2017) reported that optimising Alaska North Slope transportation networks during winter field operations is critical in managing increasing resource development and could potentially provide a better framework for environmentally responsible development. Better understanding of environmental change is also important in ensuring continued oil field operations with protection of natural resources. Improved forecasting of short-term conditions (i.e., snow, soil temperatures, spring runoffs) could allow management agencies to respond to conditions more proactively and give industry more time to plan winter mobilisation, such as construction of ice roads ( ''low confidence'' ).

<div id="section-3-5-2-5-arctic-non-renewable-extractive-industries-block-2"></div>

<span id="figure-3.12"></span>
<!-- START IMG -->
<!-- IMG TITLE -->
'''Figure 3.12'''

<span id="changes-in-public-infrastructure-damage-costs-in-cumulative-usd-by-2100-in-alaska-under-different-emission-scenarios-representative-concentration-pathways-rcp.-the-inset-showing-airports-railroads-and-pipelines-has-a-different-in-scale-than-roads-buildings-and-the-total.-bars-over-open-circles-represent-climate-related-costs-of-impact-with-no-engineering-adaptation-measures-whereas-bars"></span>
<!-- IMG CAPTION -->
'''Changes in public infrastructure damage costs in cumulative USD by 2100 in Alaska under different emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)). The inset showing airports, railroads, and pipelines has a different in scale than roads, buildings, and the total. Bars over open circles represent climate-related costs of impact with no engineering adaptation measures, whereas bars […]'''
<!-- IMG FILE -->
[[File:87c080149da0fe281332c1688bd7a5c7 IPCC-SROCC-CH_3_12.jpg]]

Changes in public infrastructure damage costs in cumulative USD by 2100 in Alaska under different emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)). The inset showing airports, railroads, and pipelines has a different in scale than roads, buildings, and the total. Bars over open circles represent climate-related costs of impact with no engineering adaptation measures, whereas bars over check-marked circles represent the costs following savings from engineering adaptation (figure modified from Melvin et al., 2017).

<!-- END IMG -->
<div id="section-3-5-2-6-infrastructure"></div>

<span id="infrastructure-1"></span>