Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-4 (section)

===== 4.7.1.2.3 Arctic sea ice =====

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[[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-9|Chapter 9]] assesses with ''high confidence'' that on decadal and longer time scales, Arctic summer sea ice area will remain highly correlated with global mean temperature until the summer sea ice has vanished (Section 9.3.1.1). This means that Arctic sea ice will continue to decline in scenarios of continued warming but will begin to recover in scenarios where GSAT begins to decrease. Under the CMIP5 extension simulations, minimum (September) Arctic sea ice area began to recover for most models under RCP2.6 out to 2300, while RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 extensions became ice-free in September ( [[#Hezel--2014|Hezel et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bathiany--2016|Bathiany et al., 2016]] ). They also found increasingly strong winter responses under continued warming such that under the RCP8.5 extension, the Arctic became ice-free nearly year-round by 2300. Consistent with the assessment in Section 9.3.1.1 that Arctic sea ice area is correlated with GSAT, CMIP6 projections to 2300 show partial sea ice recovery by 2300 in SSP1-2.6 in line with GSAT (Figure 4.40), with one model (MRI-ESM2-0) showing near complete recovery to present-day values. SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-3.4-OS are not distinguishable in behaviour of Arctic sea ice in these models after 2100. SSP5-8.5 remains ice-free in September up to 2300.

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