Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-2 (section)

===== 2.5.3.2.1 Future projections of wildfire globally =====

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Continued climate change under high-emission scenarios that increase global temperature ~4°C by 2100 could increase global burned area by 50% ( [[#Knorr--2016b|Knorr et al., 2016b]] ) to 70% ( [[#Kloster--2017|Kloster and Lasslop, 2017]] ) and global mean fire frequency by ~30% ( [[#Gonzalez--2010|Gonzalez et al., 2010]] ), with increases on one-third ( [[#Gonzalez--2010|Gonzalez et al., 2010]] ) to two-thirds ( [[#Moritz--2012|Moritz et al., 2012]] ) and decreases on one-fifth ( [[#Gonzalez--2010|Gonzalez et al., 2010]] ; [[#Moritz--2012|Moritz et al., 2012]] ) of land globally. Lower emissions that would limit the global temperature increase to &lt;2°C would reduce projected increases of global burned area to 30% ( [[#Lange--2020|Lange et al., 2020]] ) to 35% ( [[#Kloster--2017|Kloster and Lasslop, 2017]] ) and projected increases of fire frequency to ~20% ( [[#Gonzalez--2010|Gonzalez et al., 2010]] ; [[#Huang--2015|Huang et al., 2015]] ). Continued climate change could further lengthen fire weather seasons ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). Models combining projected climate change with potential agricultural expansion project decreases in total burned area ( [[#Huang--2015|Huang et al., 2015]] ; [[#Knorr--2016b|Knorr et al., 2016b]] ; [[#Park--2021|Park et al., 2021]] ). The area of projected increases in burned area and fire frequency due solely to continued climate change is higher for the world as a whole than the area of projected decreases ( ''medium evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ).

Increased wildfire due to continued climate change increases risks of tree mortality (Sections 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.2), biome shifts ( [[#2.5.2.2|Section 2.5.2.2]] ) and carbon emissions (Sections 2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4). Wildfire and biome shifts under a projected climate change of 4°C above the pre-industrial period, combined with international trade and transport, cause high risks from invasive species across one-sixth of the global area including extensive high-biodiversity regions ( [[#Early--2016|Early et al., 2016]] ).

Wildfire risks to people include death and destruction of their homes, respiratory illnesses from smoke ( [[#Ford--2018|Ford et al., 2018]] ; [[#Machado-Silva--2020|Machado-Silva et al., 2020]] ), post-fire flooding from areas exposed by vegetation loss and degraded water quality due to increased sediment flow ( [[#Dahm--2015|Dahm et al., 2015]] ) and the chemical precursors of carcinogenic trihalomethanes when water is later chlorinated for drinking ( [[#2.5.3|Section 2.5.3.7]] ) ( [[#Uzun--2020|Uzun et al., 2020]] ). Under RCP8.5 and shared socioeconomic pathway SSP3 (high population growth, slow urbanisation), the number of people living in fire-prone areas could increase by three-quarters to 720 million in 2100, in a projected global population of 12.4 billion people ( [[#Knorr--2016b|Knorr et al., 2016b]] ). Lower emissions under RCP4.5 could reduce the number of people at risk by 70 million. In these projections, human population growth increases human exposure to wildfires more than increases in burned area ( [[#Knorr--2016b|Knorr et al., 2016b]] ). A global temperature increase &lt;2°C could increase global population exposure to wildfire by ~30% ( [[#Lange--2020|Lange et al., 2020]] ). Increased wildfire under continued climate change increases the probability of human exposure to fire and risks to public health ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ).

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