Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.4.9 Small islands ====

<div id="section-3-5-4-9-block-1"></div>

It is widely recognized that small islands are very sensitive to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, oceanic warming, heavy precipitation, cyclones and coral bleaching ( ''high confidence'' ) (Nurse et al., 2014; Ourbak and Magnan, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1217|1217]]</sup> ''.'' Even at 1.5°C of global warming, the compounding impacts of changes in rainfall, temperature, tropical cyclones and sea level are ''likely'' to be significant across multiple natural and human systems. There are potential benefits to small island developing states (SIDS) from avoided risks at 1.5°C versus 2°C, especially when coupled with adaptation efforts. In terms of sea level rise, by 2150, roughly 60,000 fewer people living in SIDS will be exposed in a 1.5°C world than in a 2°C world (Rasmussen et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1218|1218]]</sup> . Constraining global warming to 1.5°C may significantly reduce water stress (by about 25%) compared to the projected water stress at 2°C, for example in the Caribbean region (Karnauskas et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1219|1219]]</sup> , and may enhance the ability of SIDS to adapt (Benjamin and Thomas, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1220|1220]]</sup> . Up to 50% of the year is projected to be very warm in the Caribbean at 1.5°C, with a further increase by up to 70 days at 2°C versus 1.5°C (Taylor et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1221|1221]]</sup> . By limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C in 2050, risks of coastal flooding (measured as the flood amplification factors for 100-year flood events) are reduced by 20–80% for SIDS (Rasmussen et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1222|1222]]</sup> . A case study of Jamaica with lessons for other Caribbean SIDS demonstrated that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is ''likely'' to challenge livestock thermoregulation, resulting in persistent heat stress for livestock (Lallo et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1223|1223]]</sup> .

<div id="section-3-5-4-10"></div>

<span id="fynbos-and-shrub-biomes"></span>