Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

=== FAQ 16.6 | What is the role of extreme weather events in the risks we face from climate change? ===

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''Climate change has often been perceived as a slow and gradual process, but by now it is abundantly clear that many of its impacts arise through shocks, such as extreme weather events. Many places are facing more frequent and intense extremes, and also more surprises. The impact of such shocks is shaped by exposure and vulnerability, where we live, and how we are prepared for and able to cope with shocks and surprises.''

The rising risk of extreme events is one of the major RFCs about climate change. It is clear that this risk has already increased today. Many recent disasters already have a fingerprint of climate change.

There are large differences in such risks from country to country, place to place, and person to person. This is of course partly due to differences in hazards such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, storms, storm surges, etc., and the way those hazards are influenced by climate change. However, an even more important aspect is people’s exposure and vulnerability: do these hazards occur in places where people live and work, and how badly do they affect people’s lives and livelihoods? Some groups are especially vulnerable, for instance elderly in the case of heatwaves, or people with disabilities in the case of floods. In general, poor and marginalised people tend to be much more affected than rich people, partly because they have fewer reserves and support systems that help them to prepare for, cope with and recover from a shock. On the other hand, absolute economic losses are generally higher in richer places, simply because more assets are at risk there.

Many problems caused by extreme weather do not just appear because of one weather extreme, but due to a combination of several events. For instance, dryness may increase the risk of a subsequent heatwave. But the increased risk may also cascade through human systems, for instance when several consecutive disasters erode people’s savings, or when a heatwave reduces the ability of power plants to produce electricity, which subsequently affects availability of electricity to turn on air conditioning to cope with the heat. Many shocks also have impacts beyond the place where they occur, for instance when a failed harvest affects food prices elsewhere. Climate risks can also be aggravated by other shocks, such as in the case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which not only had a direct health impact, but also affected livelihoods around the world and left many people much more vulnerable to weather extremes.

Understanding the risks we face can help in planning for the future. This may be a combination of short-term preparation, such as early-warning systems, and longer-term strategies to reduce vulnerability, for instance through urban planning, as well as reducing greenhouse gases to avoid longer-term increases in risk. Many interventions to increase people’s resilience are effective in the face of a range of shocks. For instance, social safety nets can help mitigate the impact of a drought on farmers’ livelihoods, but also of the economic impacts of COVID-19.

Climate-related shocks are threats to society, but they can also offer opportunities for learning and change. Recent disasters can motivate action during a short window of opportunity when awareness of the risks is higher and policy attention is focused on solutions to adapt and reduce risk. However, those windows tend to be short, and attention is often directed at the event that was recently experienced, rather than resilience in the face of a wider range of risks.

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