Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.6.1 Climate Resilient Development Pathways in Asia ===

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Climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) are ‘trajectories that strengthen sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty and reduce inequalities while promoting fair and cross-scalar adaptation to and resilience in a changing climate’ ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). Moving beyond a business-as-usual scenario, CRDPs involve not only adaptation and mitigation choices but also sustainable development implications and societal transformation ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). This basic understanding of CRDPs explicitly reflects that climate action (mitigation and adaptation) and sustainable development are fundamentally integrated and interdependent.

There is ''high confidence'' that currently implemented climate action in Asia (such as climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem-based DRR and investing in urban blue–green infrastructure) can meet adaptation, mitigation and SDGs simultaneously, presenting opportunities for climate resilient development (CRD). However, there also exist significant barriers to CRD such as fragmented, reactive governance; inadequate evidence on which actions to prioritise and how to sequence them; and finance deficits. Some Asian countries and regions offer solutions to overcome these barriers: through use of advanced technologies ( ''in situ'' observation and remote sensing, a variety of new sensor technologies, citizen science, AI and machine learning tools); regional partnerships and learning; improved forecasting capabilities; and better risk awareness ( ''high confidence'' ).

Asian countries are repeatedly identified as the most vulnerable to climatic risks with key sectors such as agriculture, cities and infrastructure, and terrestrial ecosystems expected to see high exposure to multiple hazards ( [[#10.3|Section 10.3]] ). Owing to rapid development and large populations, Asian countries have large and growing GHG emissions: in 2018, five of the top ten emitters in the world were Asian–China (1), India (3), Japan (5), the Republic of Korea (8) and Indonesia (10) ( [[#Friedlingstein--2019|Friedlingstein et al., 2019]] )–although it is critical to note that per-capita emissions and cumulative emissions are relatively lower than in developed economies ( [[#Raupach--2014|Raupach et al., 2014]] ). However, in the 2020 Sustainability Index and Dashboard, only two Asian countries made it into the top 30 countries in the world: Japan (17) and the Republic of Korea (20) ( [[#Sachs--2020|Sachs et al., 2020]] ). Finally, Asia has varied capacities to adapt with high heterogeneity in adaptation progress across the region.

Given this context of high risks, growing emissions and varied adaptive capacities in Asia, CRDPs can enable (a) reducing existing vulnerability and inequality, (b) sustainable development and meeting the SDGs and (c) managing multiple and often concurrent risks, including climate-change and disaster risks. Potentially, combinations of adaptation and mitigation options will be required to lead to CRD (see Figure 18.1 on CRDPs ), and some of them are shown in Table 10.7. For example, climate-smart agriculture strengthens food security (SDG 2, Zero Hunger) ( [[#Aggarwal--2019|Aggarwal et al., 2019]] ); urban disaster management, such as the Jakarta Disaster Risk Reduction Education Initiative, contributes to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities) (Ajibade et al., 2019).

'''Table 10.7 |''' Adaptation options that can have mitigation and SDG synergies and trade-offs, providing opportunities for the triple wins necessary for climate resilient development pathways

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! rowspan="2"| Adaptation option

! rowspan="2"| Mitigation impacts (H/M/L/NA) a

! colspan="2"| Implications on SDGs

! rowspan="2"| References

|-
! Positive

! Negative

|-
| Wetland protection, restoration

| ''Medium synergy''

Carbon sequestration through mangroves

| SDGs 8, 14, 15

|
| Southeast Asia: [[#Griscom--2020|Griscom et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Solar drip irrigation

| ''High synergy''

Shift to cleaner energy

| SDGs 2, 7, 12

| SDG 10

| South Asia: [[#Alam--2020|Alam et al. (2020)]]

|-
| rowspan="2"| Climate-smart agriculture

| rowspan="2"| ''High synergy'' b

No till practices and improved residue management can reduce soil carbon emissions.

| rowspan="2"| SDGs 2, 12

| rowspan="2"|
| South Asia: [[#Aggarwal--2019|Aggarwal et al. (2019)]] ; [[#Aryal--2020b|Aryal et al. (2020b)]] ; [[#Aryal--2020a|Aryal et al. (2020a)]] ; Tankha et al. (2020)

|-
| Southeast Asia: [[#Chandra--2018|Chandra and McNamara (2018)]]

|-
| Integrated smart water grids

| ''High synergy''

Reduced energy needs for supplying water

| SDGs 6, 9, 11, 13

|
| Asia: [[#Kim--2017|Kim (2017)]]

|-
| rowspan="4"| Disaster risk management (including early warning systems) c

| rowspan="4"| Not applicable

| rowspan="4"| SDGs 9, 11

| rowspan="4"| SDGs 5, 10

| South and Southeast Asia: Ajibade et al. (2019); [[#Herbeck--2019|Herbeck and Flitner (2019)]] ; [[#Aryal--2020b|Aryal et al. (2020b)]] ; [[#Mishra--2020|Mishra (2020)]]

|-
| Asia: [[#Iturrizaga--2019|Iturrizaga (2019)]]

|-
| Bhutan: [[#Sovacool--2012|Sovacool et al. (2012)]]

|-
| The Philippines: [[#Grefalda--2020|Grefalda et al. (2020)]]

|-
| rowspan="4"| Carefully planned resettlement and migration (including decongestion of urban areas)

| rowspan="4"| Inadequate evidence to make an assessment

| rowspan="4"| SDGs 8, 10, 11

| rowspan="4"| SDGs 6, 10, 11

| Asia: [[#Arnall--2019|Arnall (2019)]]

|-
| South Asia: [[#Maharjan--2020|Maharjan et al. (2020)]]

|-
| The Philippines: [[#Estoque--2020|Estoque et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Nepal: [[#Banerjee--2019|Banerjee et al. (2019)]]

|-
| rowspan="2"| Aquifer storage and recovery

| rowspan="2"| ''Low synergy''

| rowspan="2"| SDGs 6, 12

| rowspan="2"|
| Saudi Arabia: Lopez et al. (2014)

|-
| South and Southeast Asia: [[#Hoque--2016|Hoque et al. (2016)]]

|-
| rowspan="5"| Nature-based solutions in urban areas: green infrastructure (including urban green space, blue–green infrastructure)

| rowspan="5"| ''High synergy''

Blue–green infrastructure acts as a carbon sink

| rowspan="5"| SDGs 3, 9, 11

| rowspan="5"|
| Japan: [[#Mabon--2019|Mabon et al. (2019)]]

|-
| The Philippines: [[#Estoque--2020|Estoque et al. (2020)]]

|-
| China: Byrne et al. (2015); Zhang et al. (2020a)

|-
| Taiwan, Province of China: [[#Mabon--2018|Mabon and Shih (2018)]]

|-
| Singapore: [[#Liao--2019|Liao (2019)]] ; [[#Radhakrishnan--2019|Radhakrishnan et al. (2019)]]

|-
| rowspan="3"| Coastal green infrastructure

| rowspan="3"| ''High synergy''

| rowspan="3"| SDGs 9, 11, 13, 14, 15

| rowspan="3"|
| Bangladesh: [[#Sovacool--2012|Sovacool et al. (2012)]] ; [[#Chow--2018|Chow (2018)]] ; Zinia and (McShane, 2018)

|-
| Southeast Asia: [[#Koh--2019|Koh and Teh (2019)]] ; [[#Herbeck--2019|Herbeck and Flitner (2019)]]

|-
| Asia: [[#Giffin--2020|Giffin et al. (2020)]]

|}

Notes:

(a) Expert judgment.

(b) The CCA options in the agriculture sector include soil management, crop diversification, cropping system optimisation and management, water management, sustainable land management, crop pest and disease management, and direct seeding of rice ( [[#Aryal--2020b|Aryal et al., 2020b]] ). Other specific agricultural practices that have adaptation and mitigation synergies include between-tillage and residue management, alternate wetting and drying, site-specific nutrient management, crop diversification for less-water-intensive crops, such as maize, and improved livestock management ( [[#Aryal--2020a|Aryal et al., 2020a]] ).

(c) Risk management strategies in agriculture include crop insurance, index insurance, social networking and community-based adaptation, collective international action and integrated agro-meteorological advisory services ( [[#Aryal--2020b|Aryal et al., 2020b]] ).

The following subsections examine CRDPs through three approaches that are particularly important in Asia and have a large body of evidence to assess implications for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. The three illustrative approaches are: (a) disaster risk management and adaptation synergies, (b) the food–water–energy nexus and (c) poverty alleviation and meeting equity goals.

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