Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.7.3.6 Mainstreaming Gender Across all Adaptation Options ====

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Gender is important in building resilience and adaptation pathways to global environmental change ( [[#Ravera--2016|Ravera et al., 2016]] ). It is well-established that women, in most societies, have accumulated considerable knowledge about water resources, including location, quality and storage methods because they are primarily responsible for the management of water for household water supply, sanitation and health, and for productive uses in subsistence agriculture ( [[#UN-Water--2006|UN-Water, 2006]] ). As gender-differentiated relationships are complex, adaptation should take into account intersectional differences such as homeownership, employment and age ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ), educational, infrastructural and programmatic interventions ( [[#Pouramin--2020|Pouramin et al., 2020]] ), aspects of protection and safety ( [[#Mackinnon--2019|Mackinnon et al., 2019]] ), barriers to adaptation and gendered differences in the choice of adaptation measures ( [[#Mersha--2016|Mersha and Van Laerhoven, 2016]] ), the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations ( [[#Djoudi--2016|Djoudi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rao--2017|Rao et al., 2017]] ), and inclusion and empowerment of women in the management of environmental resources ( [[#Makina--2016|Makina and Moyo, 2016]] ). Incorporation of gender and water inequities into climate change adaptation would have a significant impact on achieving the SDGs (particularly 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6), while failure to incorporate gender will undermine adaptation efforts ( [[#Bunce--2015|Bunce and Ford, 2015]] ; [[#Fleifel--2019|Fleifel et al., 2019]] ; [[#Pouramin--2020|Pouramin et al., 2020]] ).

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'''Box 9.5 | Water–energy–food nexus'''
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The interdependencies in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, coupled with its high exposure to climate change, amplify WEF risks. Risks can be transmitted from one WEF sector to the other two with cascading risks to human health, cities and infrastructure ( [[#Conway--2015|Conway et al., 2015]] ; [[#Mpandeli--2018|Mpandeli et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nhamo--2018|Nhamo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Yang--2018|Yang and Wi, 2018]] ; [[#Ding--2019|Ding et al., 2019]] ; [[#Simpson--2021b|Simpson et al., 2021b]] ). For example, increasing demand for water for agricultural and energy production is driving an increasing competition over water resources between food and energy industries which, among other effects, compromises the nutritional needs of local populations ( [[#Zografos--2014|Zografos et al., 2014]] ; [[#Dottori--2018|Dottori et al., 2018]] ). Drought events, such as in southern Africa during the 2015/16 El Niño, have been associated with major multi-sector impacts on food security (over 40 million food-insecure people and extensive livestock deaths) and reduced energy security through disruption to hydropower generation (associated in Zambia with the lowest rate of real economic growth in over 15 years) ( [[#Nhamo--2018|Nhamo et al., 2018]] ). The WEF nexus of the Nile and Zambezi river basins, which include many of Africa’s largest existing hydropower dams, have received the most attention. In these two regions, where socioeconomic development is already driving up demand, projections indicate that water scarcity may be exacerbated by drying ( [[#Munday--2019|Munday and Washington, 2019]] ) and increased flow variability ( [[#Siam--2017|Siam and Eltahir, 2017]] ). However, for Africa more widely, very few studies fully integrate all three WEF nexus sectors and rarely include an explicit focus on climate change.

In Africa, the climate risks that the water, energy and food sectors will face in the future are heavily influenced by the infrastructure decisions that governments make in the near term. The AU’s Programme for Infrastructure Development (PIDA), along with other national energy plans (jointly referred to as PIDA+), aim to increase hydropower capacity nearly six-fold, irrigation capacity by over 60% and hydropower storage capacity by over 80% in major African river basins ( [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al., 2015]] ). The vast majority of hydropower additions would occur in the Congo, Niger, Nile and Zambezi river basins, and the majority of the irrigation capacity additions would occur in the Niger, Nile and Zambezi River basins (Figure Box 9.5.1; [[#Huber-Lee--2015|Huber-]] [[#Lee--2015|Lee et al., 2015]] ).

Climate change risk to the productivity of this rapidly expanding hydropower and irrigation infrastructure compound the overall WEF nexus risk. Future levels of rainfall, evaporation and runoff will have a substantial impact on hydropower and irrigation production. Climate models disagree on whether climates will become wetter or dryer in each river basin. [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al. (2015)]] modelled revenues from the sale of hydroelectricity and irrigated crops in major African river basins under different climate scenarios between 2015 and 2050 (Figure Box 9.5.1). The study found that hydropower revenues in the driest climate scenarios could be 58% lower in the Zambezi River basin, 30% lower in the Orange basin and 7% lower in the Congo basin relative to a scenario with current climate conditions. Hydropower revenues in the wettest climate scenario could be more than 20% higher in the Zambezi river basin and 50% higher in the Orange basin. The biggest risk to the production of irrigated crops is in the eastern Nile where irrigation revenue could be 34% lower in the driest scenario and 11% higher in the wettest than in a scenario without climate change ( [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al., 2015]] ).

Studies have used the river basin as a unit of analysis and adopted sophisticated techniques to assess and present trade-offs between competing uses. For example, [[#Yang--2018|Yang and Wi (2018)]] consider the WEF nexus in the Great Ruaha tributary of the Rufiji River in Tanzania motivated by an observed decrease in streamflow during the dry season in the 1990s, but without an explicit focus on climate. [[#Yang--2018|Yang and Wi (2018)]] show sensitivity of water availability for irrigated crop production to warming, and sensitivity of hydropower generation and ecosystem health to changes in precipitation and dam development. Understanding of WEF nexus interlinkages can help characterise risks and identify entry points and the relevant institutional levels for cross-sectoral climate change adaptation actions ( [[#England--2018|England et al., 2018]] ). An integrated response can be enhanced through the inclusion of community-based organisations, such as water resource user associations and the wide range of other multi-sectoral actors involved in and affected by development decisions. Capturing the scarcity values of water and energy embedded in food and other products can help identify the co-benefits and costs of integrated adaptation ( [[#Allan--2015|Allan et al., 2015]] ).

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'''Figure Box 9.5.1 |''' '''Climate risks to hydropower and irrigation in Africa.'''

'''(a)''' The map shows the location and size of existing (blue) and planned (orange) hydropower plants in African governments’ infrastructure expansion plans, 2015–2050.

'''(b)''' Matrix shows historical correlations in annual river flows between some of the major river basins indicating risk of hydropower shortages where correlations are higher. (c, e) Existing and planned hydropower and irrigation are indicated in charts. Dark blue shows forecasted revenues from 2015–2050 of existing hydropower and irrigation in major African river basins in a scenario without further climate change (i.e., based on historical data). Orange in charts (c, e) shows the expected increase in hydropower and irrigation revenues as new hydropower and irrigation infrastructure is added based on planned infrastructure development (PIDA+) in a scenario without climate change.

'''(d, f)''' The bar graphs show the forecast revenues for hydropower and irrigation infrastructure in each river basin under 121 different climate scenarios from 2015–2050, highlighting risk to revenues from high variability in river discharge due to climate change. In river basins with a wide range of potential river flow outcomes due to climate change, such as the eastern Nile and Zambezi, there is substantial uncertainty around revenue forecasts and potential for large reductions in future revenue. Hydropower revenues refer to net present value of hydroelectricity produced in each river basin over the period 2015–2050, and irrigation revenues refer to the crop revenues per hectare for each crop multiplied by the number of hectares of each crop across the basin. All figures are estimates of the net present value of revenues, using a discount rate of 3%, and are in 2012 USD billions. The 121 potential climate futures were derived using different General Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and downscaling methods. IPCC AR4 and AR5 provided data from 22 and 23 GCMs, respectively. These were evaluated across two or three emissions pathways, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation method of downscaling was then used to derive 99 potential climate futures. An additional 22 climate futures (11 GCMs driven by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways) were produced using the Empirical Statistical Downscaling Methods developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. Data sourced from [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al. (2015)]] .

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