Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.6.2.7 Future Climate Information from Regional Downscaling ====

<div id="h3-61-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Dynamical downscaling studies implemented with a stretched-grid model ( [[#Engelbrecht--2009|Engelbrecht et al., 2009]] ) revealed a signal compatible with the driving CMIP5 ensemble, that is, consistent drying throughout the region, amplifying in time, irrespective of the considered emissions scenario and the generation of global models ( [[#DEA--2013|DEA, 2013]] , 2018). A multi-model CORDEX ensemble indicates a robust signal of reduction of total annual rainfall in the future, although there is less agreement on how changes in rainfall occurrence may evolve in the region, such as through fewer consecutive rain days or longer dry spells ( [[#Abiodun--2017|Abiodun et al., 2017]] ; [[#Maúre--2018|Maúre et al., 2018]] ). For the end of the century under RCP8.5, [[#Dosio--2019|Dosio et al. (2019)]] also found drying. Moreover, in their analysis, the drying is associated with an increase in the number of consecutive dry days and a reduction in number of rainy days. Their results are consistent with the driving global models for all the precipitation indices, and they are robust independent of the choice of the regional climate model (RCM) or global model. However, collectively, these analyses indicate that uncertainty remains in the characteristics of the precipitation decrease.

<div id="10.6.2.8" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="storyline-approaches"></span>