Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

=== 12.6.4 Strengthening Water Governance for Adaptation to Climate Change: Managing Scarcity and Excess of Water in the Pacific Coastal Area of Guatemala ===

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Guatemala experiences high climate interannual variability, now increased from the effect of climate change ( [[#INSIVUMEH--2018|INSIVUMEH, 2018]] ; [[#Bardales--2019|Bardales et al., 2019]] ). Impacts on human settlements, agriculture and ecosystems result from both excess and reduced precipitation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#12.3.1.4|Section 12.3.1.4]] ). [[#Guerra--2016|Guerra (2016)]] argues that deficient IWRM in the country is the main reason for those impacts. A case in point is that of the Madre Vieja and Achiguate rivers, where an intense El Niño event triggered dryer conditions and, in turn, a crisis and conflict that reached national proportions. Progress in local water governance helped to solve that crisis and helped tackle challenges posed by reduced precipitation and flood risk in southern Guatemala.

The ENSO event that started in November 2014 and ended in July 2016 ( [[#CIIFEN--2016|CIIFEN, 2016]] ) was the most intense since records commenced in 1950 ( [[#NOAA--2019|NOAA, 2019]] ). Its effects were felt in different parts of the world, and Guatemala and the rest of CA experienced intense water scarcity due to a significant reduction in rainfall ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#IICA--2015|IICA, 2015]] ; [[#Scientific%20American--2015|Scientific American, 2015]] ). River flow in the dry months is related to precipitation levels in the previous rainy season, so ENSO has an effect on river flow rates. Two of the main rivers in the Pacific coast of Guatemala, Madre Vieja and Achiguate, dried out completely at the beginning of 2016, triggering a nearly violent local conflict that caught the attention of national leaders ( [[#Guerra--2016|Guerra, 2016]] ; Gobernación de Escuintla et al., 2017). In addition to the severe drought, the rivers dried because of overextraction by multiple users (60 in the case of Madre Vieja). This had happened before to a lesser extent in the last 20 years during the critical months of the dry season. A lack of regulation, coordination mechanisms, information and other elements of water governance was the root cause of the problem, exacerbated by the drier conditions during the intense El Niño event, resulting in the intensification of an existing conflict ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Guerra--2016|Guerra, 2016]] ).

Roundtables were set up to foster dialogue between numerous stakeholders, including communities, agri-export companies, governmental organisations and municipalities, all led by the local governor (Gobernación de Escuintla et al., 2017). Agreements included keeping a minimum river flow all the way to the sea, setting up a monitoring and verification system for levels of river flow and restoring riparian forests. A system was set up to monitor river flow at different points along the rivers on a daily basis in the dry season using a simple WhatsApp-based system to communicate the warnings and monitor compliance. Four years on, the rivers had not dried out and conflict was kept to a minimum. Rural communities can use rivers for recreational purposes and for fishing all year round, while plantations (large and small) can use water for irrigation (rationally) and keep producing. Similar schemes and interactions started happening in other rivers in the Pacific coast of Guatemala, with positive results, in particular, rivers kept flowing all through the dry season, as can be seen in the report of river flows for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 ( [[#ICC--2019b|ICC, 2019b]] ).

A key actor in the improvement of water governance has been the private Institute for Climate Change Research (ICC). This is a unique initiative that was created in 2010 and is funded primarily by the private sector of Guatemala to help the country advance in climate-change mitigation and adaptation ( [[#Guerra--2014|Guerra, 2014]] ). The institute works alongside local governments, communities and private companies in several areas besides integrated water management. Its role is merely technical-scientific: it oversees the water monitoring system, generating data on weather and hydrology and providing support to other stakeholders.

Local governance was also essential for the implementation of flood risk management actions ( ''high confidence'' ). [[#Guerra--2017|Guerra et al. (2017)]] explained how impacts were significantly reduced in the Coyolate River watershed, as well as on the Pacific coast of Guatemala, thanks to flood protection that was designed and implemented in a technical and integrated manner. This was a result of the strong and active participation of local communities, companies and the local municipality, which demanded that the central government invest effectively. The stakeholders provided some resources (financial and in-kind) and inspected the works. Some flat areas of the lower Coyolate watershed used to flood annually, causing economic damage in communities. The areas covered by flood risk measures have not flooded and so have avoided losses and created conditions that attract investment and create jobs, improving living conditions for the locals. Other processes of participation and interaction between the authorities, the private sector and communities have taken place in other watersheds for planning, action and investment in connection with flood risk management. The ICC has played a role by studying flood-prone areas, building capacities in communities, fostering public–private coordination mechanisms and providing much needed technical assistance to local governments ( [[#ICC--2019a|ICC, 2019a]] ).

Although some may argue that water governance is in the realm of development, it has made contributions in reducing direct and indirect impacts of climate events and, therefore, can be seen as a key element for climate adaptation ( ''high confidenc'' e).

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