Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.2.2 Avoided Impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C Warming for Poverty and Inequality ===

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Avoided impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming are expected to have significant positive implications for sustainable development, and reducing poverty and inequality. Using the SSPs (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Section 5.5.2), Byers et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r33|33]]</sup> model the number of people exposed to multi-sector climate risks and vulnerable to poverty (income &lt; $10/day), comparing 2°C and 1.5°C; the respective declines are from 86 million to 24 million for SSP1 (sustainability), from 498 million to 286 million for SSP2 (middle of the road), and from 1220 million to 763 million for SSP3 (regional rivalry), which suggests overall 62–457 million fewer people exposed and vulnerable at 1.5°C warming. Across the SSPs, the largest populations exposed and vulnerable are in South Asia (Byers et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r34|34]]</sup> . The avoided impacts on poverty at 1.5°C relative to 2°C are projected to depend at least as much or more on development scenarios than on warming (Wiebe et al., 2015; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r35|35]]</sup> .

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is expected to reduce the number of people exposed to hunger, water stress and disease in Africa (Clements, 2009) <sup>[[#fn:r36|36]]</sup> . It is also expected to limit the number of poor people exposed to floods and droughts at higher degrees of warming, especially in African and Asian countries (Winsemius et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r37|37]]</sup> . Challenges for poor populations – relating to food and water security, clean energy access and environmental well-being – are projected to be less at 1.5°C, particularly for vulnerable people in Africa and Asia (Byers et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r38|38]]</sup> . The overall projected socio-economic losses compared to the present day are less at 1.5°C (8% loss of gross domestic product per capita) compared to 2°C (13%), with lower-income countries projected to experience greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries (Pretis et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r39|39]]</sup> .

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