Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.2.2.1 Crop yield in low latitudes ====

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There is ''high confidence'' that climate change has resulted in decreases in yield (of wheat, rice, maize, soy) and reduced food availability in low-latitude regions (IPCC, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r46|46]]</sup> ) (Section 5.2.2). Countries in low- latitude regions are particularly vulnerable because the livelihoods of high proportions of the population are dependent on agricultural production. Even moderate temperature increases (1°C to 2°C) have negative yield impacts for major cereals, because the climate of many tropical agricultural regions is already quite close to the high-temperature thresholds for suitable production of these cereals (Rosenzweig et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r47|47]]</sup> ). Thus, by 1.5°C global mean temperature GMT, or between approximately 1.6°C and approximately 2.6°C of local warming, risks to yields may already transition to ''high'' in West Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America (Faye et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r48|48]]</sup> ) ( ''medium confidence'' ). For further information see Section 5.3.2.1. By contrast, higher latitudes may initially benefit from warming as well as well higher CO <sub>2</sub> concentrations (IPCC 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r49|49]]</sup> ). Wheat yield losses are expected to be lower for the USA (−5.5 ± 4.4% per degree Celsius) and France (−6.0 ± 4.2% per degree Celsius) compared to India (−9.1 ± 5.4% per degree Celsius) (Zhao et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r50|50]]</sup> ). Very high risks to low-latitude yields may occur between 3°C and 4°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). At these temperatures, catastrophic reductions in crop

yields may occur, of up to 60% in low latitudes (Rosenzweig et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r51|51]]</sup> ) (Sections 5.2.2 and 5.2.3). Some studies report significant population displacement from the tropics related to systemic livelihood disruption in agriculture systems (Tittonell 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r59|59]]</sup> ; Montaña et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r52|52]]</sup> ; Huber-Sannwald et al. 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r53|53]]</sup> ; Wise et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r54|54]]</sup> ; Tanner et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r55|55]]</sup> ; Mohapatra 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r56|56]]</sup> ). However, at higher temperatures of warming, all regions of the world face risks of declining yields as a result of extreme weather events and reduced heat tolerance of maize, rice, wheat and soy (Zhao et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r57|57]]</sup> ; IPCC 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r58|58]]</sup> ).

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