Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.6.2.8 Storyline Approaches ====

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There is a consistency in rainfall projections with the projections of rainfall drivers and with the general understanding of the influence of global warming on the circulation dynamics and rainfall patterns in the region. Thus, the expansion of the South Atlantic high-pressure system, related to widespread warming of the tropics and poleward shift of the subsiding limb of the Hadley cell, is associated with the southward displacement of the subtropical jet, and southward migration of mid-latitude westerlies and storm tracks, in addition to changes in the SAM ( [[#10.6.2.4|Section 10.6.2.4]] ). These effects are also relatively consistent with recent (post-1980s) declines in rainfall in the Cape Town region. The storyline of an extended drought is thus a set of events that can yield reduced rainfall in the Cape Town region: a poleward shift of the downward branch of the Hadley cell that produces a sustained southward shift in mid-latitude westerlies and storm tracks. The behaviour is potentially reinforced by changes in the SAM.

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