Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.8.1 Vulnerability to Observed and Projected Impacts from Climate Change ===

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Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed and subsistence across Africa. The dominant farming system is mixed cereal–livestock ( [[#Thornton--2015|Thornton and Herrero, 2015]] ; [[#Nematchoua--2019|Nematchoua et al., 2019]] ), with pastoral systems in east Africa, and commercial livestock and crop systems also representing a significant proportion of the food system in southern Africa ( [[#Thornton--2015|Thornton and Herrero, 2015]] ). Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity, facing dwindling food production, food access, stocks and income due to low adaptive capacity ( [[#Evariste--2018|Evariste et al., 2018]] ; [[#Fuller--2018|Fuller et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bang--2019|Bang et al., 2019]] ; [[#Gebre--2021|Gebre and Rahut, 2021]] ).

Across regions with food systems highly vulnerable to climate change, female farmers, cocoa farmers, pastoralists, plantain farmers, coastal zone communities, rural households and forest communities in central Africa indicate higher vulnerability ( [[#Chia--2016|Chia et al., 2016]] ; [[#Schut--2016|Schut et al., 2016]] ; [[#Nematchoua--2019|Nematchoua et al., 2019]] ). Their vulnerability is multi-dimensional and affected by low adaptive capacity, location, livelihood system, socioeconomic status, gender, age and ethnicity ( [[#Perez--2015|Perez et al., 2015]] ; [[#Weston--2015|Weston et al., 2015]] ; [[#Gebre--2021|Gebre and Rahut, 2021]] ; see also Box 9.1).

Across Africa, including west Africa, adverse climate conditions for agricultural and pastoral livelihoods have contributed to rural to urban migration patterns and migration among African regions (see Box 9.8; [[#Baudoin--2014|Baudoin et al., 2014]] ; Abbas, 2017; [[#Gemenne--2017b|Gemenne and Blocher, 2017b]] ). Rural to urban migration may increase vulnerability of migrants through exposure to additional risks, including food insecurity ( [[#Amadi--2015|Amadi and Ogonor, 2015]] ; Abbas, 2017). In general, west African countries are characterised by the poor adaptive capacity of rural households ( [[#Douxchamps--2015|Douxchamps et al., 2015]] ; [[#Dumenu--2016|Dumenu and Obeng, 2016]] ).

In north Africa, livelihoods and economies are strongly dependent on agriculture. Pressure on water demand due to climate change and variability is threatening income, development processes and food security in the region ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Mohmmed--2018|Mohmmed et al., 2018]] ; [[#Khedr--2019|Khedr, 2019]] ). Increased temperatures and droughts have enhanced the vulnerability of the irrigation sector ( [[#Verner--2018|Verner et al., 2018]] ; [[#İlseven--2019|İlseven et al., 2019]] ), and the combined effect of these hazards negatively affects crop and animal production ( [[#Mohmmed--2018|Mohmmed et al., 2018]] ; [[#Verner--2018|Verner et al., 2018]] ). For example, dairy farms in Tunisia are experiencing warmer temperatures above the thermoneutral zone of cows for more than 5 months each year, reducing production efficiency and resulting in significant economic losses ( [[#Amamou--2018|Amamou et al., 2018]] ).

Non-climatic stressors aggravate food insecurity in many parts of the continent, including lack of access to production inputs and land, lack of education and limited income sources, with adverse climate impacts on agriculture reducing education attainment for children ( [[#9.11.1.2|Section 9.11.1.2]] ; [[#Evariste--2018|Evariste et al., 2018]] ; [[#Fuller--2018|Fuller et al., 2018]] ). Geographic and social isolation is another type of social vulnerability, especially for pastoralist communities in east and southern Africa ( [[#Sonwa--2017|Sonwa et al., 2017]] ; [[#Basupi--2019|Basupi et al., 2019]] ). Rural communities often have poor transport networks, limited access to markets or information and fewer livelihood alternatives, and are less able to be informed of risks or be assisted in the event of extreme climate events ( [[#Sonwa--2017|Sonwa et al., 2017]] ; [[#Basupi--2019|Basupi et al., 2019]] ).

Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising acute food insecurity and malnutrition of millions of people requiring humanitarian assistance in Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). Between 2015 and 2019, an estimated 45.1 million people in the Horn of Africa and 62 million people in eastern and southern Africa required humanitarian assistance due to climate-related food emergencies. Children and pregnant women experience disproportionately greater adverse health and nutrition impacts ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Gebremeskel%20Haile--2019|Gebremeskel Haile et al., 2019]] ; see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7|Chapter 7]] [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.2.4|Section 7.2.4]] ).

Future climate warming is projected to have a substantial adverse impact on food security in Africa and is anticipated to coincide with low adaptive capacity as climate change intensifies other anthropogenic stressors, as 85% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods ( [[#Adams--2018|Adams, 2018]] ; [[#Mahmood--2019|Mahmood et al., 2019]] ). This highlights the need to prioritise innovative measures for reducing vulnerabilities in African food systems ( [[#Fuller--2018|Fuller et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mahmood--2019|Mahmood et al., 2019]] ).

Climate change impacts could increase the global number of people at risk of hunger in 2050 by 8 million under a scenario of sustainable development (SSP1) and 80 million under a scenario of reduced international cooperation and low environmental protection (SSP3), with populations concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and central America (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5|Chapter 5]] Sections 5.2.2; 5.4.2; 5.4.3). Global climate impacts on food availability are expected to lead to higher food prices, increasing the risk of hunger for people in African countries, and slowing progress towards eradicating child undernutrition and malnutrition in all its forms (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7|Chapter 7]] [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4|Section 7.4]] ).

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