Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.10.4.4 Transitions in and between mixed systems as adaptation strategy ====

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Transitions in and between the different elements of integrated agricultural systems can be an effective adaptation option ''(medium confidence'' ). [[#Havlik--2014|Havlik et al. (2014)]] projected that, by 2030, market-driven autonomous transitions towards more efficient production systems would increase ruminant meat and milk productivity by up to 20% and decrease emissions by 736 MtCO 2 e y −1 , most of this arising through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. [[#Weindl--2015|Weindl et al. (2015)]] assessed the implications of several climate projections on land use change to 2045 and found that shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop–livestock systems would represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing global agricultural adaptation costs and abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. Both studies suggest that public policy support for transitioning livestock production systems to increase their efficiency could be an important lever for reducing adaptation costs and contributing to emissions reductions. This policy support could include modified regulatory and certification frameworks that incentivise livestock producers to adapt and mitigate ( [[#Weindl--2015|Weindl et al., 2015]] ).

Recent reviews have summarised literature on production system transitions, driven at least partly by a changing climate or changing climate variability, that sometimes involves substantial shifts in enterprises and land configurations. These reviews found several cases of transitions affecting pastoral and mixed systems, with a range of responses including intensification, diversification and sedentarisation as well as the abandonment of agriculture (see [[#5.1|Section 5.1]] 4.3.1, [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Thornton--2019|Thornton et al., 2019]] ). The consequences of these system transitions have been mixed; in some cases, the household-level outcomes have been beneficial, while in others not. Policy environments, defined in terms of multi-level governance structures and institutions, are critical enablers of change. The vulnerability of many crop–livestock keepers to climate change is particularly affected by property and grazing rights ( ''high confidence'' ). Identifying the winners and losers from changes in land ownership and the use of communal lands in the coming decades is a key challenge for the research agenda, particularly as climate change impacts in the marginal lands intensify ( [[#Reid--2014|Reid et al., 2014]] ).

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