Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.5.4 Asian monsoon ====

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At a fundamental level, the pressure gradient between the Indian Ocean and Asian continent determines the strength of the Asian monsoon. As land masses warm faster than the oceans, a general strengthening of this gradient, and hence of monsoons, may be expected under global warming (e.g., Lenton et al., 2008) <sup>[[#fn:r1238|1238]]</sup> . Additional factors such as changes in albedo induced by aerosols and snow-cover change may also affect temperature gradients and consequently pressure gradients and the strength of the monsoon. In fact, it has been estimated that an increase of the regional land mass albedo to 0.5 over India would represent a tipping point resulting in the collapse of the monsoon system (Lenton et al., 2008) <sup>[[#fn:r1239|1239]]</sup> . The overall impacts of the various types of radiative forcing under different emissions scenarios are more subtle, with a weakening of the monsoon north of about 25°N in East Asia but a strengthening south of this latitude projected by Jiang and Tian (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1240|1240]]</sup> under high and modest emissions scenarios. Increases in the intensity of monsoon precipitation are ''likely'' under low mitigation (AR5). Given that scenarios of 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming would include a substantially smaller radiative forcing than those assessed in the study by Jiang and Tian (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1241|1241]]</sup> , there is ''low confidence'' regarding changes in monsoons at these low global warming levels, as well as regarding the differences between responses at 1.5°C versus 2°C of warming.

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