Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.5.5 West African monsoon and the Sahel ====

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Earlier work has identified 3°C of global warming as the tipping point leading to a significant strengthening of the West African monsoon and subsequent wettening (and greening) of the Sahel and Sahara (Lenton et al., 2008) <sup>[[#fn:r1242|1242]]</sup> . AR5 (Niang et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1243|1243]]</sup> , as well as more recent research through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX–AFRICA), provides a more uncertain view, however, in terms of the rainfall futures of the Sahel under low mitigation futures. Even if a wetter Sahel should materialize under 3°C of global warming ( ''low confidence'' ), it should be noted that there would be significant offsets in the form of strong regional warming and related adverse impacts on crop yield, livestock mortality and human health under such low mitigation futures (Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Sylla et al., 2016; Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1244|1244]]</sup> .

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