Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.6.3.1 Motivation and Regional Context ====

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The Indian summer monsoon provides 80% of the country’s annual rainfall from June to September, supplying the majority of water for agriculture, industry, drinking and sanitation to over a billion people. Any variations in the monsoon on time scales from days to decades can have large impacts ( [[#Challinor--2006|Challinor et al., 2006]] ; [[#Gadgil--2006|Gadgil and Gadgil, 2006]] ). Evidence from paleoclimate records (Sections 8.3.2.4.1) shows ''high confidence'' in a weakened Indian monsoon during cold epochs of the past such as the Younger Dryas (12,800–11,600 years ago) as measured by speleothem oxygen isotopes ( [[#Kathayat--2016|Kathayat et al., 2016]] ). There is a pressing need to understand if the monsoon will change in the future under anthropogenic forcing and to quantify such changes. Multiple datasets have shown robust negative trends since the 1950s until the turn of the century ( [[#Bollasina--2011|Bollasina et al., 2011]] ) followed by a recovery ( [[#Jin--2017|Jin and Wang, 2017]] ), yet repeated assessments project the monsoon to increase in strength under enhanced GHG forcing ( [[#Christensen--2007|Christensen et al., 2007]] , 2013; Sections 8.3.2.4.1 and 8.4.2.4.1). The apparent contradiction between future projections and observed historical trends makes the region an ideal choice for an in-depth assessment. The reader is also referred to the South Asia (SAS) regional assessment of precipitation extremes ( [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.9|Section 11.9]] ), which is not discussed here for brevity.

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