Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.8.2.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks on Regional Cash Crops and Food Crops ====

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Few studies have attributed changes in yields of cash crops and other regionally important food crops in Africa to human-caused climate change, but recent research suggests yields of cash crops in Africa have already been impacted by climate change, in both a negative and positive manner ( [[#Falco--2012|Falco et al., 2012]] ; [[#Traore--2013|Traore et al., 2013]] ; [[#Ray--2019|Ray et al., 2019]] ). For example, between the period 1974–2008, sugarcane yields decreased on average by 3.9% and 5.1% in sub-Saharan Africa and north Africa, respectively, due to climate change, while sorghum yields increased 0.7%, and cassava yield increased 1.7% in sub-Saharan Africa and 18% in north Africa ( [[#Ray--2019|Ray et al., 2019]] ).

There are also limited studies assessing projected climate change impacts on important cash crops and food crops other than maize, rice and wheat ( [[#Jarvis--2012|Jarvis et al., 2012]] ; [[#Schroth--2016|Schroth et al., 2016]] ; [[#Awoye--2017|Awoye et al., 2017]] ). These studies often represent changes at specific sites in a country or assess changes in the yield and/or suitability for cultivating a specific crop across a larger geographic area. Climate change is projected to have overall positive impacts on sugarcane and Bambara nuts in southern Africa, oil palm in Nigeria and chickpea in Ethiopia ( ''low confidence'' ) (Figure 9.23).

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'''Figure 9.23 |''' '''Projected risks at increasing global warming levels for regionally important cash and food crops in Africa.''' Insufficient data indicates there were limited to no published studies that have quantified projected climate change impacts or adaptation options for specific crops under different warming levels (see Table SM9.6). Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850–1900.

Climate change is projected to reduce sorghum yields in west Africa (Figure 9.23). For example, across the west African Sahel savanna sorghum yields are projected to decline on average 2% at 1.5°C and 5% at 2°C global warming ( [[#Faye--2018|Faye et al., 2018]] ). For coffee and tea in eastern Africa, olives in Algeria and sunflower in Botswana and Morocco, studies indicate mostly negative impacts on production systems. For example, in Kenya, compared to 2000, optimal habitat for tea production is projected to decrease in area by 27% with yields declining 10% for global warming of 1.8–1.9°C, although yield declines may be reduced at higher levels of warming ( [[#Beringer--2020|Beringer et al., 2020]] ; [[#Jayasinghe--2020|Jayasinghe and Kumar, 2020]] ; [[#Rigden--2020|Rigden et al., 2020]] ). Suitable area for tea production may reduce by half in Uganda ( [[#Eitzinger--2011|Eitzinger et al., 2011]] ; [[#Läderach--2013|Läderach et al., 2013]] ). In east Africa, the coffee-growing area is projected to shift up in elevation with suitability decreasing 10–30% between 1.5–2°C of global warming ( [[#Bunn--2015|Bunn et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ovalle-Rivera--2015|Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015]] ).

For all other crops, there is at least one study that finds low to highly negative impacts for one or several warming levels (Figure 9.23). Mixed results on the direction of change often occur when several contrasting sites with varying baseline climates are studied, and when a study considers the full range of climate scenarios. For example, there are mixed results on the direction of change for impacts of 1.5°C global warming on cassava, cotton, cocoa and millet in west Africa ( ''low confidence'' ) (Figure 9.23). In general, there is limited evidence in the direction of change, due to single studies being available for most crop-country combinations ( [[#Knox--2010|Knox et al., 2010]] ; [[#Chemura--2013|Chemura et al., 2013]] ; [[#Asaminew--2017|Asaminew et al., 2017]] ; [[#Bouregaa--2019|Bouregaa, 2019]] ). Occasionally, two studies agree on the direction and magnitude of change, for example, for potatoes in east Africa, yields are projected to decrease by 11–17% with 3°C of warming ( [[#Fleisher--2010|Fleisher et al., 2010]] ; [[#Tatsumi--2011|Tatsumi et al., 2011]] ).

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