Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.11.2 Current and Future Climate Change Impacts on Food Loss in Storage, Distribution and Processing ===

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The potential for climate-change-based food losses exists in all parts of the food system—post-harvest storage, distribution and processing—with the potential for impacts in one part of the system to be passed on to other elements ( [[#Davis--2021|Davis et al., 2021]] ). Storing a product destined for food use makes it available in times other than immediately after harvest, which is especially important for products with a pronounced seasonal availability or that are not available from other regions with different seasons. Storage of fresh products (meat, fish, fruits and vegetables) even with the best cold storage technology results in some quality loss relatively quickly. Higher temperatures increase the cost of maintaining quality. One estimate is that an increase in outdoor temperature from 17°C to 25°C increases cold storage power consumption by about 11% ( [[#James--2010|James and James, 2010]] ). Post-harvest storage of roots and cereals is subject to physical and quality losses from damage by mice, rats and birds and by microorganisms such as the toxigenic fungi discussed above, all of which are expected to increase in warmer and more humid conditions.

The higher temperatures and humidity will generally raise storage costs and lower the quantity and quality of stored product, reducing producer incomes and raising consumer prices ( ''high agreement'' , ''medium evidence'' ) ( [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ). For example, in the US state of Michigan, climate change will shorten the period of reliably cold local storage of potato by 11–17 days and 14–20 days further south by mid-century and by 15–29 days and 31–35 days, respectively, by late century. These changes would increase future demand for ventilation and/or refrigeration immediately after harvest and again in spring and early summer ( [[#Winkler--2018|Winkler et al., 2018]] ).

Insects are a main source of food loss. Climate change can alter insect damage in at least two ways: increases in reproductive rate from temperature increases and changes in pheromone effectiveness ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing temperature up to about 40°C raises the rates of insect food digestion and reproduction ( [[#Deutsch--2018|Deutsch et al., 2018]] ), but temperatures above that level are fatal for many insects ( [[#Neven--2000|Neven, 2000]] ). Most insects rely on pheromones to facilitate reproduction. Higher temperatures, but also increases in atmospheric CO 2 and O 3 levels, can affect this process. Insect species that rely on long-range chemical signals (such as ladybirds, aphids, bark beetles and fruit flies) will be most impacted, because these signals suffer from longer exposure to processes that reduce pheromone effectiveness ( [[#Medina--2015b|Medina et al., 2015b]] ; [[#Moses--2015|Moses et al., 2015]] ; [[#Boullis--2016|Boullis et al., 2016]] ; [[#Verheecke-Vaessen--2019|Verheecke-Vaessen et al., 2019]] ).

There are several potential pathways for climate change impacts on processing that would negatively affect quality and appearance, but with limited research to date. For example, some studies have indicated that recent increases in temperature have decreased the appearance and milling quality of rice in the USA and East Asia, owing to increased occurrence of chalky grains ( [[#Lyman--2013|Lyman et al., 2013]] ; [[#Morita--2016|Morita et al., 2016]] ; [[#Masutomi--2019|Masutomi et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ishigooka--2021|Ishigooka et al., 2021]] ). Impacts on quality of perennial crops and annual fruits and vegetables are discussed above ( [[#5.4.3|Section 5.4.3]] and Box 5.2).

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