Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

=== Atlas.8.5 Summary ===

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An assessment of recent literature largely confirms the findings of previous IPCC reports but with additional detail and (in some cases) higher confidence due to improvements in observations, reanalyses and methods. Observational datasets with global coverage are complemented by the E-OBS gridded ensemble temperature and precipitation dataset, a range of regional observational analyses, and regional reanalysis products. New RCM experiments, including CPRCMs and regional coupled climate system models, mostly coordinated under the umbrella of CORDEX, have generated many new projections and process studies.

The representation of mean European climate features by GCMs and RCMs is improved compared to previous IPCC assessments ( ''medium confidence'' ), in spite of persisting biases in annual mean and seasonal temperature and precipitation characteristics. The added value of regional downscaling of GCMs by RCM projections for summer mean temperature, precipitation and shortwave radiation is constrained by the representation of processes that lead to a systematic difference between RCM and driving GCM, such as aerosol forcing ( ''medium confidence'' ).

It is ''virtually certain'' that annual mean temperature continues to increase in each European region. There is ''medium confidence'' that annual mean precipitation in NEU, WCE and EEU has increased since the early 20th century. In the European Mediterranean trends in annual mean precipitation contain substantial spatial and temporal variability ( ''medium confidence'' ). It is ''very likely'' that since the early 1980s in snow-dominated areas in NEU and EEU the length of the snowfall season is reduced with regional warming, and the melt onset dates have advanced. It is ''likely'' that decreasing trends in anthropogenic aerosols in Europe have generated positive trends in shortwave radiation and surface temperature since the 1980s.

At increasing levels of global warming, there is ''very'' ''high confidence'' that temperature will increase in all European areas at a rate exceeding global mean temperature increases, while increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in DJF and reduced JJA precipitation in southern Europe will occur with ''medium confidence'' for global warming levels below 2°C, and with ''high confidence'' for higher warming levels. At high latitudes and low-altitude mountain areas in Europe strong declines in snow accumulation are ''virtually certain'' to occur with further increasing regional temperatures ( ''very high confidence'' ).

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