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===== 3.5.4.1.2 Understanding regime shifts =====

Regime shifts are especially important in polar regions where there are limited data and where rapid directional change suggests the possibility of crossing thresholds that may dramatically alter the flow of ecosystem services (ARR, 2016). Better understanding of the thresholds and dynamics of regime shifts (i.e., SES state changes) is especially important for resilience building (ARR, 2016; Biggs et al., 2018; Rocha et al., 2018) ( ''high confidence'' ). While polar regime shifts have been documented (Biggs et al., 2018), most are poorly understood and rarely predictable (Rocha et al., 2018) ( ''high confidence'' ). Moreover, the focus on Arctic regime shifts to date has been on almost entirely on biophysical state changes that impact social systems. A limited number of studies have examined social regime shifts and fewer the feedbacks of social regimes shifts on ecosystems (Gerlach et al., 2017). Future needs for advancing knowledge of regime shifts include: 1) continued and refined updating of details on past regimes shifts, 2) structured comparative analysis of these phenomena to ascertain common patterns and variation, 3) greater investment in research resources on potential large-scale regime shifts, and 4) great attention on how social and economic change may affect ecosystems (ARR, 2016; Biggs et al., 2018).

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