Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.12.1 Introduction ===

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Food security and nutrition are key desired outcomes of food systems. Climate change is already contributing to reduced food security and nutrition and will continue to do so ( ''high confidence'' ) (Sections 5.4, 5.5, 5.8, 5.9, 5.10). Climate change impacts affect all four dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilisation and stability (Table 5.14), through both direct and indirect pathways.

'''Table 5.14 |''' Impacts from climate change drivers on the four dimensions of food security. Adapted from Table 5.1 in SRCCL.

{| class="wikitable"
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! '''CIDs and mechanism for food security impacts'''

! '''Examples of regions and groups most affected'''

! '''References'''

|-
| colspan="3"| '''Food security dimension: Availability'''

|-
| '''Increased heat and drought''' reduce crop and animal productivity and soil fertility and increase land degradation for some regions and crops.

| Countries in which a large proportion relies on agriculture for livelihoods.

Food production systems that rely on rainfed agriculture and pastoral rangeland. Urban populations and the poor.

| [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Dury--2019|Dury et al. (2019)]] , [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , [[#5.4|Section 5.4]] and 5.5).

|-
| '''Extreme heat''' affects crop productivity. Combined with high humidity reduces agricultural labour capacity and animal productivity.

| Countries and sectors that rely extensively on outdoor manual agricultural labour and experience high temperatures and humidity

| [[#Zander--2015|Zander et al. (2015)]] , [[#Kjellstrom--2016|Kjellstrom et al. (2016)]] , [[#Ioannou--2017|Ioannou et al. (2017)]] , [[#Mitchell--2017|Mitchell et al. (2017)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Flouris--2018|Flouris et al. (2018)]] , [[#Kjellstrom--2018|Kjellstrom et al. (2018)]] , Levi et al. (2018).

|-
| '''Increasing temperatures and precipitation changes''' increase and shift crop and livestock pests and diseases

| East African pastoral groups who experienced increased livestock morbidity and mortality from RVF in El Niño years.

| [[#Bebber--2015|Bebber (2015)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , Sections 5.4.1.3 and 5.5.1.3

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| '''Increasing temperatures and drought stress''' has led to higher post-harvest losses due to mycotoxins.

| Tropical and subtropical regions with limited food safety surveillance

| [[#Miller--2016|Miller (2016)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#5.11|Section 5.11]]

|-
| '''Rising ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves and ocean acidity''' has reduced availability of fish in coastal communities.

| Coastal people and coastal areas of tropical countries with high dependence on fisheries, e.g., West African coastal communities

| [[#Hilmi--2014|Hilmi et al. (2014)]] , [[#Golden--2016|Golden et al. (2016)]] , [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al. (2019)]] , [[#5.8|Section 5.8]] and 5.9

|-
| '''Increased number and intensity of extreme events such as cyclones''' lead to reduced food production and distribution from crop damage, increased pest incidence and transportation disruption.

| Delta regions where there are high populations and are often important food production regions, e.g., Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar estimated to reduce crop production by 19%, production declined for subsequent 3 years.

| [[#Omori--2020|Omori et al. (2020)]]

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| '''Increased atmospheric CO''' 2 '''concentrations''' increase total plant biomass and plant sugar content, which can increase crops as well as pests and weeds. High CO 2 also reduces transpiration during drought, which can increase plant drought resistance.

| All regions are anticipated to have increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but due to impacts of other CIDs (e.g., drought, heat stress, pests), the impacts on crop growth, forage and subsequent food availability are mixed.

| [[#Iizumi--2018|Iizumi et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Canadell--2021|Canadell et al. (2021)]] , [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al. (2021)]] , Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter)

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| colspan="3"| '''Food security dimension: Access'''

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| Increased '''drought''' and '''flood events''' and increased pests and disease from '''rising temperatures''' lead to loss of agricultural income due to reduced yields, and higher costs of production inputs such as water. Reduced ability to purchase food leads to lower dietary diversity and consumption levels.

| Low-income smallholder farmers and pastoralists in Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Malawi, Zambia and Tanzania.

| [[#Saronga--2016|Saronga et al. (2016)]] , [[#Giannini--2017|Giannini et al. (2017)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] [[#Omori--2020|Omori et al. (2020)]]

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| Increase in number and intensity of '''extreme weather events (e.g., droughts, floods''' ) lead to increased food prices, which often leads to lower dietary diversity as well as lower consumption levels.

| Low-income consumers.

Women and girls.

| [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , Ilboudo Nébié et al. (2021)

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| '''Extreme events''' (e.g., floods) disrupt food storage and transport networks, reducing access and availability of food supplies.

| Countries dependent on food imports, e.g., Small Island Developing States. Poor households living in flash flood and saline zones in Bangladesh who rely on monocropped rice. Women and children may experience greater impacts from extreme events.

| [[#Toufique--2014|Toufique and Belton (2014)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Hickey--2020|Hickey and Unwin (2020)]] , Algur et al. (2021)

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| colspan="3"| '''Food security dimension: Utilisation (food quality and safety)'''

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| I '''ncreased temperatures''' reduce food safety caused by microorganisms, including increased mycotoxins in food and feed.

| Countries with limited food safety surveillance systems.

| [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , [[#5.11|Section 5.11]]

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| Climate change '''extreme events''' make fruits and vegetables relatively unaffordable compared with less-nutrient-dense foods.

| Urban low-income households and rural households who purchase the majority of their food. Children in regions such as West Africa, with lower access to diverse food types as a result of climate impact drivers, e.g., drought.

| An et al. (2018), Algur et al. (2021), [[#Baker--2020|Baker and Anttila-Hughes (2020)]] , [[#Niles--2021|Niles et al. (2021)]]

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| '''Rising air temperature''' , '''ocean warming and high CO''' 2 '''conditions''' increase risk of food poisoning and pollutant contamination of food through increased prevalence of pathogens, HAB and increased contaminant bioaccumulation and threaten human health.

| Low-income tropical countries where current ability to reduce and monitor mycotoxin contamination is limited. Coastal Indigenous Peoples and other poor populations in coastal areas of tropical countries with high dependence on fisheries, e.g., west African coastal communities

| [[#Golden--2016|Golden et al. (2016)]] , [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al. (2019)]] , Sections 5.7, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11

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| '''Increased atmospheric CO''' 2 '''concentrations''' reduce nutritional quality of grains, some fruits and vegetables.

| Low-income households who have limited access to range of diverse foods.

| [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , [[#5.4|Section 5.4]]

|-
| '''Rising ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves and ocean acidity''' reduce fish populations, which reduces consumption of fish high in iron, zinc, omega-3 fatty acids and vitamins in areas where fish populations decline.

| Coastal areas of tropical countries; coastal Indigenous Peoples and other groups who rely on fisheries.

| [[#Golden--2016|Golden et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#5.7|Section 5.7]] , 5.8, 5.9

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| colspan="3"| '''Food security dimension: Stability'''

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| '''Increased frequency and severity of extreme events''' (e.g., '''droughts''' and '''heatwaves)''' lead to greater instability of supply through production losses and disruption to food transport.

| Landlocked countries; low-income countries reliant on imports; low-income households in areas prone to floods.

| [[#Toufique--2014|Toufique and Belton (2014)]] , [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , Algur et al. (2021), [[#5.11|Section 5.11]]

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| '''Increased drought''' and '''flood events''' and increased pests and disease from '''rising temperatures''' lead to unstable incomes from agriculture and fisheries.

| Small-scale producers (crops and livestock) and fishers

| Ruiz Meza, (2015), [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al. (2018)]] , Sections 5.8, 5.9

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| Climate change '''extreme events''' increase food prices due to climate shocks.

| Low-income countries reliant on imports; urban low-income households and rural households who purchase the majority of their food.

| [[#Bene--2015|Bene et al. (2015)]] , [[#Peri--2017|Peri (2017)]] , [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]] , [[#5.11|Section 5.11]]

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| '''Increased drought''' and '''flood events''' and increased pests and disease from '''rising temperatures''' cause widespread crop failure. '''Rising ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves and ocean acidity''' lead to dramatic decline in fisheries, contributing to migration and conflict.

| Coastal communities in West Africa, Southeast Asia and other tropical countries highly dependent on fisheries.

| [[#Golden--2016|Golden et al. (2016)]] , [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al. (2019)]] [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. (2019)]]

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| '''Reduced frost days and snow days''' will increase stability of food security in some temperate regions since there will be less loss of food crops to frost damage and a longer growing season. However, they also raise pest and disease risks due to increased range and overwintering.

| Australia, most Asian regions, Europe, Central and South America and North America.

The benefits of yield gains at high latitudes may be tempered by greater risks of pests and pathogen damages.

| [[#Jones--2012|Jones and Barbetti (2012)]] , [[#IPPC%20Secretariat--2021|IPPC Secretariat (2021)]] , [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al. (2021)]]

|}

Global food security improved dramatically in the 20th century even as global population increased from 2 to 6 billion. While some may assume that global food security is primarily provided by large-scale producers, research since AR5 has shown the sizeable role of small and mid-sized food producers in Asia, Africa and Latin America contributing to global food security and nutrition, while being highly vulnerable to climate change impacts on food security ( [[#Samberg--2016|Samberg et al., 2016]] ; [[#Herrero--2017|Herrero et al., 2017]] ; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ricciardi--2018|Ricciardi et al., 2018]] ). In 2019, more than 750 million people in the world, almost 1 in 10 people, suffered from severe food insecurity, a figure which has risen since 2014 in every region except North America and Europe

( [[#FAO--2020|FAO et al., 2020]] ). Overnutrition, a result of high-calorie unbalanced diets, is also rising, with over 2 billion adults overweight or obese ( [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Swinburn--2019|Swinburn et al., 2019]] ; [[#FAO--2020|FAO et al., 2020]] ; [[#Venkatesh%20Mannar--2020|Venkatesh Mannar et al., 2020]] ; [[#WHO--2021|WHO, 2021]] ). Many low- and middle-income countries now have both high under- and overnutrition rates ( [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ).

There are multiple drivers of food security, including changing dietary patterns, urbanisation and population growth ( [[#HLPE--2017b|HLPE, 2017b]] ; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Swinburn--2019|Swinburn et al., 2019]] ). Vulnerability to climate change impacts on food insecurity and malnutrition is worsened by other underlying causes, including poverty, multiple forms of inequity (e.g., gender, racial, income), low access to water and sanitation, macroeconomic shocks and conflict ( [[#Smith--2015|Smith and Haddad, 2015]] ; [[#Clay--2018|Clay et al., 2018]] ; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cook--2019|Cook et al., 2019]] ). Climate change frequently acts to compound these drivers of food insecurity (Table 5.14).

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased vulnerability to food insecurity and malnutrition of particular groups and sectors in the food system, including low-income households, farmworkers, food service workers, informal food market sellers and low-income countries dependent on food imports (Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7). Climate change will compound pandemic vulnerabilities in the food system ( ''high agreement'' , ''low evidence'' ) ( [[#HLPE--2020|HLPE, 2020]] ; UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Regional Office for Asia and Pacific), 2020; [[#WFP-FSIN--2020|WFP-FSIN, 2020]] ). The pandemic may also increase coordination among sectors and a willingness to address food system weaknesses made visible by the impacts of COVID-19 ( [[#Blay-Palmer--2020|Blay-Palmer et al., 2020]] ; [[#Cohen--2020|Cohen, 2020]] ; [[#Ramos--2020|Ramos et al., 2020]] ).

Ecosystem services, the provisioning, supporting and regulating mechanisms we all depend on for food security and nutrition, are also undermined by climate change impacts ( [[#5.4.3|Section 5.4.3]] ). Even in the absence of climate change, our current food system threatens to exceed planetary, regional or local boundaries of long-term sustainable development ( [[#Campbell--2017|Campbell et al., 2017]] ). Climate change will make efforts to reduce this threat more difficult to achieve ( ''medium confidence'' ), though many solutions to enhancing food security are also potential climate change adaptation responses (Sections 5.4, 5.6, 5.8, 5.10, 5.14).

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