Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== FAQ 10.1 | What are the current and projected key risks related to climate change in each sub-region of Asia? ===

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''Climate-change-related risks are projected to increase progressively at 1.5'' ° ''C, 2'' ° ''C and 3'' ° ''C of global warming in many parts of Asia. Heat stress and water deficit are affecting human health and food security. Risks due to extreme rainfall and sea level rise are exacerbated in vulnerable Asia.''

Climatologically, the summer surface air temperature in South, Southeast and Southwest Asia is high, and its coastal area is very humid. In these regions, heat stress is already a medium risk for humans. Large cities are warmer by more than 2°C compared with the surroundings due to heat island effects, exacerbating heat stress conditions. Future warming will cause more frequent temperature extremes and heatwaves especially in densely populated South Asian cities, where working conditions will be exacerbated and daytime outdoor work will become dangerous. For example, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in 51 cities in China is estimated to reach 37,800 deaths per year over a 20-year period in the mid-21st century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Asian glaciers are the water resources for local and adjacent regions. Glaciers are decreasing in Central, Southwest, Southeast and North Asia, but are stable or increased in some parts of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region. The glacier melt water in the southern Tibetan Plateau increased during 1998–2007, and the total amount and area of glacier lakes has increased during recent decades. In the future, maximum glacial runoff is projected in High Mountain Asia. Glacier collapses and surges, together with glacier lake outburst flood due to the expansion of glacier lakes, will threaten the securities of the local and down streaming societies.

With much of the Asian population living in drought-prone areas, water scarcity is a prevailing risk across Asia through water and food shortage leading to malnutrition. Populations vulnerable to impacts related to water are going to increase progressively at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming. Aggravating drought condition is projected in Central Asia. Water quality degradation also has profound impact on human health.

Extreme rainfall causes floods in vulnerable rivers. Observed changes in extreme rainfall vary considerably by region in Asia. Extreme rainfall events (such as heavy rainfall &gt;100 mm per day) have been increasing in South and East Asia. In the future, most of East and Southeast Asia are projected to experience more intense rainfall events as soon as by the middle of the 21st century. In those regions, the flood risk will become more frequent and severe. It is estimated that over one-third of Asian cities and about 932 million urban dwellers are living in areas with high risk of flooding.

Sea level rise is continuing. Higher than the global mean sea level rise is projected on Asian coasts. Storm surge and high wave by tropical cyclones of higher intensity are high risk for a large number of Asian megacities facing the ocean: China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam have the highest numbers of coastal populations exposed and thus are most vulnerable to disaster-related mortality.

Changes in terrestrial biome have been observed that are consistent with warming, such as an upward move of treeline position in mountains. Climate change, human activity, lightning and quality of forest governance and management have increased wildfire severity and area burned in North Asia in recent decades. Changes in marine primary production also have been observed: a decrease up to 20% over the past six decades in the western Indian Ocean, due to ocean warming and stratification, has restricted nutrient mixing. The risk of irreversible loss of many ecosystems will increase with global warming.

The likelihood of adverse impacts to agricultural and food security in many parts of developing Asia will progressively escalate with the changing climate. The potential of total fisheries production in South and Southeast Asia is also projected to decrease.

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'''Figure FAQ10.1.1 |''' '''Key risks related to climate change in Asia.'''

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