Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

=== 11.1.2 Economic, Demographic and Social Trends ===

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Economic, demographic and sociocultural trends influence the exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Elrick-Barr--2016|Elrick-Barr et al., 2016]] ; [[#Smith--2016|Smith et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hayward--2017|Hayward, 2017]] ; B. Frame et al., 2018; [[#Plummer--2018|Plummer et al., 2018]] ; [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Gartin--2020|Gartin et al., 2020]] ). In the absence of proactive adaptation, climate change impacts are projected to worsen inequalities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups ( [[#Green--2009|Green et al., 2009]] ; [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ambrey--2017|Ambrey et al., 2017]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Socioeconomic inequality, low incomes and high levels of debt, poor health and disabilities increase vulnerability and limit adaptation ( [[#Hayward--2012|Hayward, 2012]] ) (11.7.2). A lack of services, such as schools and medical services, in poorer and rural areas and decision-making processes that privilege some voices over others exacerbate inequalities ( [[#Kearns--2009|Kearns et al., 2009]] ; [[#Hinkson--2018|Hinkson and Vincent, 2018]] ).

Changes to the composition and location of different demographic groups in the region contribute to increased exposure or vulnerability to climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). Australia’s population reached 25 million in 2018 and is projected to grow to 37.4–49.2 million by 2066, with most growth in major cities (accounting for 81% of Australia’s population growth from 2016 to 2017) (ABS, 2018), although COVID-19 is expected to slow the growth rate ( [[#CoA--2020c|CoA, 2020c]] ). The highest growth rates outside of major cities occurred mostly in coastal regions ( [[#ABS--2017|ABS, 2017]] ), which have built assets exposed to sea level rise (SLR). New Zealand’s population was 5.1 million at the end of 2020 and is projected to increase to 6.0–6.5 million by 2068, assuming no marked changes in migration patterns ( [[#Stats%20NZ--2016|Stats NZ, 2016]] ; [[#Stats%20NZ--2021|Stats NZ, 2021]] ). Although the population densities of both countries are much lower than other OECD countries, they are highly urbanised with over 86% living in urban areas in both countries ( [[#Productivity%20Commission--2017|Productivity Commission, 2017]] ; World Bank, 2018). This proportion is projected to increase to over 90% by 2050 ( [[#UN%20DESA--2019|UN DESA, 2019]] ) mostly in coastal areas ( [[#Rouse--2017|Rouse et al., 2017]] ). Consideration of climate change impacts when planning and managing such growth and associated infrastructure could help avoid new vulnerabilities being created, particularly from wildfires, sea level rise (SLR), heat stress and flooding.

The region has an increasingly diverse population through the arrival of migrants, including those from the Pacific, whose innovations, skills and transnational networks enhance their and others’ adaptive capacity ( [[#De--2016|De et al., 2016]] ; [[#Fatorić--2017|Fatorić et al., 2017]] ; [[#Barnett--2018|Barnett and McMichael, 2018]] ), although language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage can create vulnerabilities for some (11.7.2).

Climate change inaction exacerbates intergenerational inequity, including prospects for the current younger population ( [[#Hayward--2012|Hayward, 2012]] ). Increasing transient worker populations (ABS, 2018) may diminish social networks and adaptive capacity ( [[#Jiang--2017|Jiang et al., 2017]] ). The region has an ageing population and increasing numbers of people living on their own who are highly vulnerable to extreme events, including heat stress and flooding ( [[#Zhang--2013|Zhang et al., 2013]] ).

Socioeconomic trends are affected by global mega trends ( [[#KPMG--2021|KPMG, 2021]] ), which are expected to influence the region’s ability to implement climate change adaptation strategies ( [[#World%20Economic%20Forum--2014|World Economic Forum, 2014]] ). Digital technological advances have potential benefits for building adaptive capacity ( [[#Deloitte--2017a|Deloitte, 2017a]] ).

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