Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

=== 15.3.1 Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes in the Physical Basis ===

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There is increased evidence of warming in the small islands, particularly in the latter half of the 20th century ( ''high confidence'' ). The diversity of metrics and timescales used across studies makes it impossible to provide explicit comparisons; however, Table 15.1 provides a summary of observed changes.

'''Table 15.1 |''' Observed changes in basic climate metrics.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Phenomenon

! Location

! Basic trends

! Specific metric

! Time period

! Reference literature

|-
| Air temp

| West Pacific

| Warmer

| Increase in daily mean minimum temp by 0.14°C per decade

| 1951–2015

| [[#McGree--2019|McGree et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Air temp

| Caribbean

| Warmer

| Increase in daily minimum temp by 0.28°C per decade

| 1961–2010

| [[#Stephenson--2014|Stephenson et al. (2014)]]

|-
| Air temp

| Mediterranean

| Warmer

| Increase in annual mean surface temp 0.19–0.25°C per decade

| 1960–2005

| [[#Mariotti--2015|Mariotti et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Land and sea temp

| Mediterranean

| Warmer

| Annual mean temperatures are now 1.54°C above the 1860–1890 level for land and sea

|
| (MedECC, 2020)

|-
| Rainfall

| Mediterranean

| Drier

| Decrease in annual mean precipitation by −0.6 mm d –1 and decade

| 1960–2005

| [[#Mariotti--2015|Mariotti et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Ducrocq--2016|Ducrocq et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Rainfall

| Pacific Ocean

| No clear pattern

| No significant long-term trends in rainfall

| 1951–2015

| [[#McGree--2019|McGree et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Rainfall

| Indian Ocean

| No clear pattern

|
| 1983–2015

| [[#Nguyen--2018|Nguyen et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Rainfall

| Caribbean

| No clear pattern

| No significant long-term trends in rainfall in the Caribbean over the 20th century

| 1901–2012

| [[#Jones--2015|Jones et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Drought

| Caribbean

| Low confidence in the direction of change

| Inconsistent between sub-regions and not statistically significant

| 1950–2016

| [[#Herrera--2017|Herrera and Ault (2017)]]

|-
| Drought

| Pacific Ocean

| Low confidence in the direction of change

| Inconsistent between sub-regions and not statistically significant in the tropical Pacific. Significant decrease in Hawaii and sub-tropical South Pacific

| 1951–2015

| McGree et al. (2016); [[#McGree--2019|McGree et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Tropical Cyclones

| North Atlantic

| Increase in intensity and decrease in frequency

|
| 1975–2009

| [[#Walsh--2016|Walsh et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Tropical Cyclones

| Western North Pacific

| Decreasing frequency

| Decrease in frequency except over central North Pacific

| 1977–2010

| [[#Walsh--2016|Walsh et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Tropical Cyclones

| South Pacific

| Increase in intensity and decrease in frequency

|
| 1989–2009

| [[#Walsh--2016|Walsh et al. (2016)]]

[[#Kuleshov--2020|Kuleshov et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Tropical Cyclones

| Indian Ocean

| No clear pattern

| Poor data coverage

| 1961–2008

| [[#Tauvale--2019|Tauvale and Tsuboki (2019)]] ; [[#Kuleshov--2020|Kuleshov et al. (2020)]]

|-
| RSLR

| East Caribbean

| Greater than average

| 3–5 mm yr –1

| 1993–2014

| Becker et al. (2019)

|-
| RSLR

| West/North Caribbean

| Greater than average

| 2.5–3 mm yr –1

| 1993–2014

| Becker et al. (2019)

|-
| RSLR

| Western Tropical Pacific

| Greater than average

| 5–11 mm yr –1

| 1993–2014

| Becker et al. (2019)

|-
| RSLR

| Mauritius/Indian Ocean

| Greater than average

| 4 mm yr –1

| 1993–2014

| Becker et al. (2019)

|-
| RSLR

| Rodrigues/Indian Ocean

| Greater than average

| 6 mm yr –1

| 1993–2014

| Becker et al. (2019)

|}

Notes:

RSLR: relative sea-level rise

Some phenomena have no demonstrable trends in a region because of limited observed data, these include TC frequency in the northeastern Pacific and Indian oceans ( [[#Walsh--2016|Walsh et al., 2016]] ); other phenomena are too variable to detect an overarching trend, including rainfall in regions where inter-annual and decadal variabilities such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are dominant ( [[#Jones--2015|Jones et al., 2015]] ; [[#McGree--2019|McGree et al., 2019]] ).

There are also marked regional variations in the rates of SLR ( [[#Merrifield--2011|Merrifield and Maltrud, 2011]] ; [[#Palanisamy--2012|Palanisamy et al., 2012]] ; [[#Esteban--2019|Esteban et al., 2019]] ) and relative SLR (RSLR; that is, incorporating land movement). Various factors, including interannual and decadal sea level variations associated with low-frequency modulation of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and vertical land motion contribute to both relative sea level variations and related uncertainties. Increased distant-source swell height from extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) also contributes to ESLs ( [[#Mentaschi--2017|Mentaschi et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vitousek--2017|Vitousek et al., 2017]] ). Together, these stressors increase ESLs and their impacts, including coastal erosion and marine flooding and their impacts on both ecosystems and ecosystem services and human activities ( [[#15.3.3.1|Section 15.3.3.1]] and Table 15.3).

'''Table 15.2 |''' A small subset of projected changes in basic climate metric. Med: Mediterranean; n.c.: no change.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! rowspan="2"| Phenomenon

! rowspan="2"| Location

! rowspan="2"| General trend

! rowspan="2"| Metric

! colspan="2"| Specific projections 2040–2060

! colspan="2"| Specific projections 2080–2100

! rowspan="2"| Comments

! rowspan="2"| Reference

|-
! RCP 4.5

! RCP 8.5

! RCP 4.5

! RCP 8.5

|-
| rowspan="5"| Air temperature

| Caribbean

| Hotter, especially in the East

| Monthly mean temperature compared to 1971–2000

| n.a.

| 1.2°C rise

| 1.6C rise

| 3.0°C rise

| Specific to Lesser Antilles

| [[#Bowden--2020|Bowden et al. (2020)]] ; [[#Cantet--2014|Cantet et al. (2014)]]

|-
| East Atlantic

| Hotter

| Average annual temperature compared to 1971–2000

| 1.5–2°C rise

| 2.5°C rise

| n.a.

| n.a.

| ''Low-confidence'' , specific to Sao Tome and Principe

| [[#Chou--2020|Chou et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Med

| Hotter, especially in summer

| Average maximum daily temperature during summer compared to 1970–2000

| 1.6–1.9°C rise

| 2–2.5°C rise

| n.a.

| n.a.

| Specific to Sicily, Crete and Cyprus

| [[#Varotsos--2021|Varotsos et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Pacific

| Hotter

| Average temperature compared to 1986–2005

| 0.5–1.5°C rise

| 1.0–2.0°C rise

| 1.0–2.0°C rise

| 2.0–4.0°C rise

| Consistent in tropical latitudes

| [[#Lough--2016|Lough et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Global small islands

| Hotter

| Heat index compared to 1986–2005

| 1°C rise

| 1.5°C rise

| 1.3°C rise

| 2.8°C rise

| Equatorial, coastal and continental islands hotter than oceanic

| [[#Harter--2015|Harter et al. (2015)]]

|-
| rowspan="2"| ENSO

| rowspan="2"| Pacific

| More frequent extreme events

| Frequency compared to ~1900–1999

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 100% more El Niños, 73–100% more La Niñas

| High natural variability limits statistical significance in related patterns

| Cai et al., (2014); [[#Cai--2015b|Cai et al. (2015b)]]

|-
| Inconclusive change in variability

| Amplitude change compared to 1979–2005

| 0.02°C drop

| 0.01°C rise

| 0.04°C drop

| 0.04°C rise

| Specific projections are not statistically significant

| Cai et al., (2018); [[#Beobide-Arsuaga--2021|Beobide-Arsuaga et al. (2021)]]

|-
| rowspan="8"| Precipitation

| East Caribbean

| Slightly wetter, more extreme seasonality

| Total rainfall compared to wet/dry season compared to 1971–2001

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 5% rise/10% drop

| 8% rise/15% drop

| Significant local variability

| [[#Cantet--2014|Cantet et al. (2014)]]

|-
| West/North Caribbean

| Drier

| Annual rainfall compared to 1986–2005; consecutive dry days compared to 1961–1990

| n.a.

| 9% less rain

| n.a.

| Up to 327% more dry days

| Specific to Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

| Stennett- [[#Brown--2017|Brown et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Bowden--2020|Bowden et al. (2020)]]

|-
| East Atlantic

| Inconclusive change

| Monthly rainfall compared to 1971–2000

| 10–25-mm rise

| 10–25-mm drop

| n.a.

| n.a.

| ''Low-confidence'' , specific to Sao Tome and Principe

| [[#Chou--2020|Chou et al. (2020)]]

|-
| West Pacific

| Wetter, especially after mid-century

| Annual average rainfall compared to 1971-–2005

| 2% rise

| 6% rise

| 3% rise

| 8% rise

| ''Low-confidence'' , specific to Borneo

| [[#Sa’adi--2017|Sa’adi et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Central Pacific

| Drier, more extreme seasonality

| Total rainfall compared to 1975–2005

| 15% drop

| 20% drop

| 17% drop

| 30% drop

| ''Low-confidence'' , specific to Hawaii

| Timm et al. (2015)

|-
| Southwest Indian Ocean

| Drier during the wet season, especially south of 10S

| Average change in daily rainfall compared to 1971–2000

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 0.2 mm d –1 drop

| ''Low confidence''

| [[#Lazenby--2018|Lazenby et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Med

| Drier, but highly varied

| Annual mean precipitation compared to 1960–1990

| 70–100-mm drop

| 60–150- mm drop

| n.a.

| n.a.

| Specific to Malta; no significant change in Sicily, Crete and Cyprus

| [[#Varotsos--2021|Varotsos et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Global small islands

| Slightly wetter, highly variable

| Mean annual precipitation compared to 1986–2005

| &lt;1% rise

| &lt;1% rise

| 1.8% rise

| 3.2% rise

| Confidence limited by high standard deviation

| [[#Harter--2015|Harter et al. (2015)]]

|-
| rowspan="8"| Tropical Cyclones

| North Indian Ocean

| More storms in the west, fewer in the east

| Frequency compared to 1990–2013

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 30–60% rise/20–40% drop

| Specific to Arabian sea/Bay of Bengal

| [[#Bell--2020|Bell et al. (2020)]]

|-
| South Indian Ocean

| Fewer storms, fewer strong storms in east

| Storm/Category 4–5 frequency compared to 1979–2010

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 20–40% drop/0–20% drop

|
| [[#Bell--2019a|Bell et al. (2019a)]]

|-
| Northwest Pacific

| Slightly more and stronger storms at increasingly high latitudes

| Storm density compared to 1970–2000; poleward shift in annual mean of location of maximum intensity compared to 1980–2005

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 15–40% rise; 0.2°

| 10–40N, 140–170E

| Kossin et al. (2016); [[#Chand--2019|Chand et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Southwest and low-latitude Pacific

| Less frequent storms

| Storm density compared to 1970–2000

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 0–20% drop/20–30% drop

| South/North Pacific up to 20N, 100–140E

| [[#Bell--2019a|Bell et al. (2019a)]] [[#Chand--2019|Chand et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Northeast Pacific

| Less frequent storms

| Storm frequency compared to 1970–2016

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 2–13% drop

| No data for Southern Hemisphere

| [[#Bell--2019b|Bell et al. (2019b)]]

|-
| Central North Pacific

| More and stronger storms

| Mean annual TC/Category 4–5 composition compared to 1979–2010

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 31–88% rise

| Specific to Hawaii

| [[#Yoshida--2017|Yoshida et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Caribbean

| Slightly fewer storms

| Minor/major cyclones compared to 1984–2013

| n.a.

| 12% drop/n.c.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| Specific to lesser Antilles

| [[#Cantet--2021|Cantet et al. (2021)]]

|-
| East Atlantic

| More storms and slightly more frequent intense storms

| Storms per decade compared to 1979–2010

| n.a.

| n.a.

| n.a.

| 0–3 rise

| Specific to latitude &gt;15N

| [[#Yoshida--2017|Yoshida et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Extratropical cyclone

| Med

| Decreased frequency but increased intensity

| Frequency of storms compared to 1986–2005

| n.c.

| n.a.

| 12% drop

| n.a.

|
| [[#González-Alemán--2019|González-Alemán et al. (2019)]]

|}

Like observed impacts, projected impacts include some high confidence assessments, which are distributed across a diversity of models, timescales and metrics. Generalised trends, and specific projections when available, are provided in Table 15.2. However, actual values and spatial distribution of precipitation changes remain uncertain as they are strongly model dependent ( [[#Paeth--2017|Paeth et al., 2017]] ). Furthermore, the current capabilities of climate models, to adequately represent variability in climate drivers including ENSO, and the topography of small islands limit confidence in these future changes ( [[#Cai--2015a|Cai et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Harter--2015|Harter et al., 2015]] ; [[#Guilyardi--2016|Guilyardi et al., 2016]] ).

'''Table 15.3 |''' Percentage of selected islands classified as refugia for biodiversity at increasing levels of warming. While protected land is still ‘protected’ this table demonstrates the difficulty of protecting lands which might be ‘more resilient’ to climate change under increasing levels of warming and current land use practices. Derived from current and future projected distributions of ~130,000 terrestrial fungi, plants, invertebrates and vertebrates ( [[#Warren--2018a|Warren et al., 2018a]] ). Refugia=areas remaining climatically suitable for &gt;75% of the species modelled ( [[#Warren--2018b|Warren et al., 2018b]] ). '''Projections:''' based on mean impacts from 21 CMIP5 climate model patterns (no dispersal) and elevationally downscaled to 1 km under interpolated warming levels derived from RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.0 ( [[#Warren--2018a|Warren et al., 2018a]] ). First column-set: % island/island chain classified as a refugia based on '''''climate alone''''' ; second column-set: % natural land projected to be climate refugia—illustrating potential refugia ‘space’ already lost to habitat conversion. '''Colour key''' : white: &gt; 50%; yellow: 30–50%; red: 17–30%; dark red: &lt;17% of land classified as refugia.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Island(s)

! colspan="8"| Climate °C

! colspan="8"| Climate + land use °C

|-
|
| ''0.5''

| ''1''

| ''1.5''

| ''2''

| ''2.5''

| ''3''

| ''3.5''

| ''4''

| ''0.5''

| ''1''

| ''1.5''

| ''2''

| ''2.5''

| ''3''

| ''3.5''

| '''''4'''''

|-
| Aegean Islands

| 98

| 89

| 85

| 68

| 39

| 19

| 12

| 6

| 66

| 62

| 60

| 50

| 32

| 16

| 11

| 6

|-
| American Samoa

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 83

| 52

| 39

| 25

| 39

| 39

| 39

| 39

| 34

| 24

| 18

| 11

|-
| Andaman Nicobar

| 100

| 95

| 90

| 46

| 7

| 2

| 1

| 0

| 92

| 88

| 84

| 45

| 7

| 2

| 1

| 0

|-
| Balearic Islands

| 99

| 97

| 95

| 82

| 26

| 6

| 4

| 2

| 29

| 28

| 28

| 25

| 13

| 6

| 3

| 2

|-
| Bangka

| 100

| 100

| 97

| 3

| 1

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 20

| 20

| 19

| 1

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Barbados

| 94

| 67

| 53

| 25

| 5

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 10

| 7

| 6

| 3

| 1

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Borneo

| 98

| 92

| 89

| 60

| 25

| 14

| 10

| 6

| 67

| 62

| 60

| 43

| 24

| 13

| 10

| 6

|-
| Bougainville

| 92

| 81

| 77

| 62

| 39

| 28

| 24

| 19

| 87

| 77

| 74

| 58

| 37

| 27

| 23

| 18

|-
| British Indian Ocean Territory

| 100

| 100

| 94

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 47

| 47

| 47

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Corsica

| 72

| 61

| 57

| 43

| 29

| 18

| 15

| 10

| 64

| 53

| 50

| 38

| 26

| 16

| 13

| 8

|-
| Crete

| 91

| 83

| 80

| 68

| 52

| 35

| 27

| 20

| 51

| 47

| 46

| 42

| 35

| 26

| 22

| 17

|-
| Cuba

| 97

| 94

| 92

| 69

| 14

| 4

| 3

| 1

| 48

| 46

| 45

| 36

| 10

| 4

| 3

| 1

|-
| Cyprus

| 53

| 51

| 49

| 44

| 32

| 20

| 14

| 8

| 48

| 46

| 44

| 37

| 24

| 14

| 9

| 6

|-
| Dominica

| 79

| 66

| 63

| 51

| 41

| 28

| 20

| 14

| 79

| 66

| 63

| 51

| 41

| 28

| 20

| 14

|-
| French Polynesia

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 81

| 68

| 54

| 38

| 38

| 38

| 38

| 38

| 32

| 28

| 23

|-
| Galapagos

| 91

| 82

| 79

| 67

| 50

| 27

| 18

| 13

| 93

| 88

| 86

| 74

| 54

| 33

| 21

| 14

|-
| Grenada

| 73

| 49

| 43

| 29

| 18

| 10

| 6

| 3

| 71

| 48

| 43

| 29

| 18

| 10

| 6

| 3

|-
| Guadeloupe

| 91

| 71

| 64

| 27

| 19

| 13

| 9

| 6

| 57

| 46

| 42

| 26

| 19

| 13

| 9

| 6

|-
| Guernsey

| 100

| 52

| 41

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 13

| 7

| 5

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Hispaniola

| 77

| 60

| 54

| 35

| 22

| 15

| 12

| 9

| 55

| 43

| 40

| 28

| 19

| 13

| 11

| 8

|-
| Indonesia

| 95

| 87

| 81

| 54

| 28

| 17

| 14

| 11

| 60

| 55

| 51

| 36

| 23

| 15

| 12

| 10

|-
| Jamaica

| 77

| 65

| 61

| 47

| 31

| 17

| 10

| 5

| 64

| 54

| 51

| 40

| 27

| 15

| 9

| 4

|-
| Java

| 91

| 74

| 65

| 37

| 24

| 17

| 13

| 10

| 27

| 24

| 22

| 18

| 14

| 11

| 9

| 7

|-
| Kiribati

| 100

| 55

| 38

| 14

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 15

| 12

| 12

| 5

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Madagascar

| 98

| 90

| 87

| 70

| 47

| 28

| 22

| 13

| 84

| 77

| 73

| 58

| 37

| 21

| 16

| 10

|-
| Maldives

| 100

| 38

| 1

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 16

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Marajo

| 100

| 58

| 33

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 91

| 55

| 33

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Marshall Islands

| 100

| 99

| 99

| 55

| 22

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 46

| 46

| 46

| 15

| 10

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Mauritius

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 92

| 74

| 27

| 27

| 27

| 27

| 27

| 27

| 25

| 23

|-
| Micronesia

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 78

| 59

| 31

| 16

| 6

| 86

| 86

| 86

| 72

| 56

| 29

| 15

| 6

|-
| Montserrat

| 61

| 43

| 39

| 27

| 20

| 9

| 9

| 4

| 56

| 38

| 35

| 23

| 17

| 9

| 7

| 4

|-
| Nauru

| 100

| 100

| 97

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 11

| 11

| 11

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| New Caledonia

| 100

| 100

| 99

| 97

| 89

| 62

| 45

| 31

| 76

| 75

| 75

| 74

| 69

| 53

| 41

| 28

|-
| New Guinea

| 95

| 84

| 73

| 47

| 32

| 25

| 22

| 19

| 86

| 76

| 67

| 43

| 30

| 23

| 21

| 18

|-
| Northern Mariana Islands

| 100

| 100

| 99

| 95

| 58

| 29

| 19

| 11

| 49

| 49

| 49

| 46

| 35

| 22

| 16

| 9

|-
| Orinoco Delta

| 100

| 31

| 9

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 93

| 29

| 9

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Palau

| 100

| 79

| 73

| 21

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 74

| 59

| 55

| 17

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Palawan

| 86

| 70

| 64

| 36

| 21

| 12

| 9

| 6

| 55

| 47

| 44

| 31

| 20

| 12

| 9

| 6

|-
| Philippines

| 90

| 74

| 66

| 41

| 27

| 16

| 12

| 8

| 34

| 30

| 28

| 21

| 15

| 10

| 8

| 6

|-
| Prince Edward

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 97

| 9

| 0

| 35

| 35

| 35

| 35

| 35

| 33

| 2

| 0

|-
| Puerto Rico

| 84

| 66

| 59

| 41

| 25

| 15

| 11

| 7

| 63

| 52

| 49

| 36

| 24

| 14

| 11

| 7

|-
| Saint Lucia

| 77

| 50

| 45

| 29

| 14

| 6

| 3

| 1

| 72

| 50

| 45

| 29

| 14

| 6

| 3

| 1

|-
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

| 73

| 57

| 50

| 37

| 27

| 18

| 13

| 8

| 63

| 50

| 44

| 34

| 23

| 15

| 10

| 5

|-
| Samoa

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 99

| 89

| 67

| 56

| 46

| 34

| 34

| 34

| 34

| 31

| 24

| 22

| 20

|-
| Sardinia

| 95

| 87

| 83

| 65

| 34

| 16

| 10

| 5

| 41

| 38

| 37

| 31

| 22

| 12

| 8

| 4

|-
| Seychelles

| 100

| 100

| 98

| 83

| 57

| 25

| 16

| 9

| 25

| 25

| 25

| 22

| 18

| 8

| 6

| 5

|-
| Sicily

| 93

| 84

| 80

| 60

| 35

| 18

| 11

| 7

| 16

| 15

| 15

| 13

| 10

| 7

| 6

| 4

|-
| Singapore

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 98

| 9

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 14

| 14

| 14

| 13

| 3

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Solomon Islands

| 93

| 79

| 74

| 48

| 28

| 15

| 10

| 6

| 92

| 78

| 73

| 48

| 28

| 15

| 10

| 6

|-
| Sri Lanka

| 98

| 94

| 89

| 64

| 23

| 11

| 7

| 5

| 47

| 46

| 44

| 36

| 16

| 7

| 5

| 4

|-
| Sulawesi

| 86

| 75

| 71

| 58

| 44

| 33

| 28

| 23

| 60

| 54

| 52

| 46

| 38

| 30

| 26

| 21

|-
| Sumatra

| 96

| 90

| 87

| 65

| 24

| 16

| 13

| 11

| 40

| 37

| 36

| 30

| 18

| 13

| 11

| 9

|-
| Sumba

| 98

| 90

| 86

| 70

| 49

| 23

| 11

| 4

| 36

| 33

| 31

| 26

| 18

| 9

| 4

| 2

|-
| Timor

| 92

| 84

| 80

| 66

| 48

| 30

| 22

| 15

| 11

| 10

| 9

| 8

| 7

| 5

| 4

| 3

|-
| Trinidad and Tobago

| 88

| 24

| 16

| 6

| 3

| 1

| 0

| 0

| 64

| 20

| 14

| 6

| 3

| 1

| 0

| 0

|-
| Tuvalu

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 34

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 3

| 3

| 3

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

| 0

|-
| Wallis and Futuna

| 100

| 100

| 100

| 65

| 32

| 11

| 3

| 0

| 35

| 35

| 35

| 33

| 21

| 7

| 1

| 0

|}

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<span id="trends-in-exposure-and-vulnerability"></span>