Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.2.2 Key Risks ===

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Key risks in this chapter are grouped into those related to food security, food safety and dietary health, livelihoods of people in related sectors and ecosystem services (Table 16.9). Determining when a risk is considered severe is challenging to quantify because of the complexity of the food system, uncertainty about the effects and ethical challenges.

Current levels of food insecurity are already high in some parts of the world, and often exacerbated by short-term food shortages and price spikes caused by weather extremes partly linked to climate change (Sections 5.2.1, 5.12.3, 16.5.2). Climate change will increase malnourished populations through direct impacts on food production and have cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, all of which will reduce access to safe and nutritious food ( ''high confidence)'' (Figure 5.2, 5.12).

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[[File:69bd483389e6daeb065cad82f804ed9d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_002.png]]

'''Figure 5.2 |''' '''Cascading impacts of climate hazards on food and nutrition.''' The factors involved the impacts on crop production and prices (black arrows) and interaction among food-health interaction (white arrows). Adapted and revised from ( [[#Phalkey--2015|Phalkey et al., 2015]] ).

Extreme climate events will become more frequent and force some of the current food production areas beyond the safe climatic space for production ( ''high confidence'' ) (Sections 5.4.3, 5.5.2). Globally, 10% of the currently suitable area for major crops and livestock is projected to be climatically unsuitable in mid-century and 31–34% by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5 ( [[#Kummu--2021|Kummu et al., 2021]] ). Adverse effects of climate change on food production will become more severe when global temperatures rise by more than 2°C (Sections 5.4.4.1, 5.12.4.1). One study estimated that the heat stress from projected 3°C warming above baseline (1986–2005) would reduce labour capacity by 30–50% in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, leading to a 5% increase in crop prices because of higher labour cost and production losses, thereby undermining food availability, access and livelihood ( [[#de%20Lima--2021|de Lima et al., 2021]] ). [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al. (2019)]] projected that, by 2100, climate change under RCP8.5 could have negative impacts on both agriculture and marine fisheries productivity in countries where 90% of the world population live. A global analysis of shellfish aquaculture estimated that habitat suitability will decline beyond 2060 globally, but much sooner in some Asian countries ( [[#Stewart-Sinclair--2020|Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020]] ; 5.9.1). These negative effects in the second half of the century will be much less under RCP2.6.

Climate change impacts will increase the number of people at risk of hunger, in 2050 ranging from 8 million people under SSP1 to 80 million people under SSP3 scenarios (RCP6.0), compared with a world with no climate change ( [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ). Estimates also vary depending on the adaptation and mitigation assumptions ( [[#Hasegawa--2018|Hasegawa et al., 2018]] ; [[#Janssens--2020|Janssens et al., 2020]] ). Geographically, nearly 80% of the population at risk of hunger are projected to reside in Africa and Asia ( [[#Nelson--2018|Nelson et al., 2018]] ). Projections of risk of hunger beyond 2050 are limited, but it will grow from the mid-century towards the end of the century, with more people at risk under RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5 ( [[#Richardson--2018|Richardson et al., 2018]] ). Regional disparity is projected to increase, particularly under a high-emission scenario.

Climate change will increase the costs and management challenges of providing safe food. The safety challenges arise from contamination caused by increased prevalence of pathogens, HAB and toxic inorganic bioaccumulation ( ''high confidence'' ) (Sections 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12). Micronutrient deficiency is prevalent across many regions and will continue to be a problem at least during the first half of the century ( [[#Nelson--2018|Nelson et al., 2018]] ), with significant implications for human health ( [[#5.12.4|Section 5.12.4]] ).

Food security and healthy balanced diets will also be undermined by reduced livelihoods and health of people in agriculture and food-related sectors (Sections 5.12.3, 5.12.4), diminished ecosystem services provided by pollinators, the soil biome ( [[#5.4.3|Section 5.4.3]] ) and water systems, and climate-mitigation related policies that solely focus on reducing GHG emissions without considering their potential to increase competition with food production for scarce land and water ( [[#5.13.3|Section 5.13.3]] ).

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