Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.1.5 Climate Data and Research Gaps Across Africa ===

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Since AR5, there have been rapid advances in climate impact research due to increased computing power, data access and new developments in statistical analysis ( [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton and Hsiang, 2016]] ). However, sparse and intermittent weather station data limit attribution of climate trends to human-caused climate change for large areas of Africa, especially for precipitation and extreme events, and hinder more accurate climate change projections ( [[#9.5.2|Section 9.5.2]] ; Figure 9.5; [[#Otto--2020|Otto et al., 2020]] ). Outside of South Africa and Kenya, digitally accessible data on biodiversity is limited ( [[#Meyer--2015|Meyer et al., 2015]] ). Lack of comprehensive socioeconomic data also limits researchers’ ability to predict climate change impacts. Ideally, multiple surveys over time are needed to identify effects of a location’s changing climate on changing socioeconomic conditions. Twenty-five African countries conducted only one nationally representative survey that could be used to construct measures of poverty during 2000–2010 and 14 conducted none over this period ( [[#Jean--2016|Jean et al., 2016]] ). Because of these challenges, much of what is known about climate impacts and risks in Africa relies on evidence from global studies that use data largely from outside Africa (e.g., [[#Zhao--2021|Zhao et al., 2021]] ). These studies generate estimates of average impacts across the globe, but may not have the statistical power to distinguish whether African nations display differential vulnerability, exposure or adaptive capacity. In sections of this chapter, we have relied, when necessary, on such studies, as they often provide best available evidence for Africa. Increasing data coverage and availability would increase the ability to discern important differences in risk both among and within African countries.

Climate-related research in Africa faces severe funding constraints with unequal funding relationships between countries and with research partners in Europe and North America ( ''high confidence'' ). Based on analysis of over 4 million research grants from 521 funding organisations globally, it is estimated that, from 1990–2020, USD 1.26 billion funded Africa-related research on climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation. This represents only 3.8% of global funding for climate-related research—a figure incommensurate with Africa’s high vulnerability to climate change (see Figure 9.3; Box 9.1; [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8|Chapter 8]] Figure 8.6; [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ). Almost all funding for Africa-related climate research originates outside Africa and goes to research institutions outside Africa ( [[#Blicharska--2017|Blicharska et al., 2017]] ; [[#Bendana--2019|Bendana, 2019]] ; [[#Siders--2019|Siders, 2019]] ; [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ). From 1990–2020, 78% of funding for Africa-related climate research flowed to institutions in Europe and the USA—only 14.5% flowed to institutions in Africa (Figure 9.3; [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ). Kenya (2.3% of total funding) and South Africa (2.2%) are the only African countries among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of hosting institutions receiving funding for climate-related research on Africa ( [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Figure 9.3 |''' '''Climate-related research on Africa has received a very small percentage (around 4%) of global climate research funding (a).'''

'''(b)''' As a percentage of all research funding allocated to a region, climate research has, since 2010, made up 5% of Africa-related research funding compared to a 3% share for climate research in global research funding.

'''(c)''' Major funders are the UK, EU, USA, Germany and Sweden.

'''(d)''' Most funding for climate-related research on Africa flows to institutions based in Europe and the USA. Funding comes mainly from government organisations with private philanthropy providing only around 1% ( [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ).

'''(e)''' Africa-related climate research funding focuses mostly on food systems, ecosystems and freshwater, while health, poverty, security and conflict, and urban areas have received the least.

'''(f)''' Research on climate mitigation received only 17% of funding while climate impacts and adaptation each received 40%. A greater proportion of Africa-focused climate funding has gone to social sciences and humanities (28%) than is the case globally (12%) ( [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ). Data are from an analysis of 4,458,719 research grants in the Dimensions database with a combined value of USD 1.51 trillion awarded by 521 funding organisations globally (Overland et al. 2021). The Dimensions database is the world’s largest database on research funding flows (Overland et al. 2021). It draws on official data from all major funding organisations in the world, mainly government research councils or similar institutions. Note: The South African National Research Foundation is the only African research funding body that is sufficiently large to be included in Dimensions.

These unequal funding relations influence inequalities in climate-related research design, participation and dissemination between African researchers and researchers from high-income countries outside Africa, in ways that can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa ( ''very high confidence'' ). Those empowered to shape research agendas can shape research answers: climate research agendas, skills gaps and eligible researchers are frequently defined by funding agencies, often from a global north perspective ( [[#Vincent--2020a|Vincent et al., 2020a]] ). Larger funding allocations for research focused on Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia are reflected in higher concentrations of empirical research on impacts and adaptation options in these countries, and there is a general lack of adaptation research for multiple of the most vulnerable countries in Africa (Figure 9.4) ( [[#Callaghan--2021|Callaghan et al., 2021]] ; [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ; [[#Sietsma--2021|Sietsma et al., 2021]] ; [[#Vincent--2021|Vincent and Cundill, 2021]] ). The combination of northern-led identification of both knowledge and skills gaps can result in projects where African partners are positioned primarily as recipients engaged to support research and/or have their ‘capacity built’ rather than also leading research projects on an equal basis ( [[#Vincent--2020a|Vincent et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Trisos--2021|Trisos et al., 2021]] ). Analysis of &gt;15,000 climate change publications found for over 75% of African countries 60–100% of climate change publications on these countries did not include a single local author, with authorship dominated by researchers from richer countries outside Africa ( [[#Pasgaard--2015|Pasgaard et al., 2015]] ). This can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa as researchers at global north institutions may shape research questions and outputs for a northern audience rather than providing actionable insights on priority issues for African partners ( [[#Pasgaard--2015|Pasgaard et al., 2015]] ; [[#Nago--2020|Nago and Krott, 2020]] ). Moreover, in order to access research publications in a timely manner, many researchers in Africa are forced to use shadow websites bypassing journal paywalls ( [[#Bohannon--2016|Bohannon, 2016]] ). Ways to enhance research partnerships to produce actionable insights on climate impacts and solutions in Africa include: increased funding from African and non-African sources, increasing direct control of resources for African partners, having African research and user priorities set research questions, identify skills gaps, and lead research, and having open access policies for research outputs ( [[#ESPA%20Directorate--2018|ESPA Directorate, 2018]] ; [[#Vogel--2019|Vogel et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vincent--2020a|Vincent et al., 2020a]] ; [[#IDRC--2021|IDRC, 2021]] ; [[#Trisos--2021|Trisos et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Figure 9.4 |''' '''Major gaps in climate change research funding, participation and publication exist within Africa, and for Africa compared to the rest of the world.'''

'''(a)''' Funding: Amount of climate change research funding focused on African countries 1990–2020 ( [[#Overland--2021|Overland et al., 2021]] ). Considering population size, research on Egypt and Nigeria stands out as particularly underfinanced.

'''(b)''' Participation: Percentage of peer-reviewed climate change papers on impacts and adaptation published on a given country that also include at least one author based in that country (Pasgaard et al. 2015).

'''(c)''' Number of publications of climate change adaptation research focused on individual countries identified from a global sample of 62,191 adaptation-relevant peer-reviewed articles published from 1988–2020 ( [[#Sietsma--2021|Sietsma et al., 2021]] ). There is a general lack of adaptation-related research on many vulnerable countries in Africa. Topic biases in adaptation-relevant research also exist where research focuses more on disaster and development-related topics in global south countries (but published by authors from the global north), while research on global north countries focuses more on governance topics ( [[#Sietsma--2021|Sietsma et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Figure 9.5 |''' '''Observed''' '''climate change impacts on human and natural systems are widespread across Africa, as are climate trends attributable to human-induced climate change.''' This machine-learning-assisted evidence map shows the presence of historical trends in temperature and precipitation attributable to human-induced climate change (pinks compared to greys) and the amount of evidence (shown by intensity of colours) documenting the impacts of these climate trends on human and natural systems (e.g., ecosystems, agriculture, health) across Africa. ‘Robust’ indicates more than five studies documented impacts per grid cell. A ‘High’ amount of evidence indicates more than 20 studies documented impacts for a grid cell. Climate impact studies from the literature were identified and categorised using machine learning. A language representation model was trained on a set of 2373 climate impact studies coded by hand. This supervised machine learning model identified 102,160 published studies predicted to be relevant for climate impacts globally; references to places in Africa were found in 5081 studies (5% of global studies). Temperature trends were calculated from 1951–2018 and precipitation from 1951–2016. Attribution of climate trends to human induced climate change is limited in some regions of Africa due to insufficient data (see [[#9.5.1|Section 9.5.1]] , Figure 9.15). Hatching shows regions where trends in both temperature and precipitation are attributable to human-induced climate change. Data from [[#Callaghan--2021|Callaghan et al. (2021)]] .

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