Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

== 12.8 Conclusion ==

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CSA is a broadly heterogeneous region with respect to topography, ecosystems, urban and rural territories, demography, economy, cultures and climates. The region relies on a strong agrarian economy in which small producers and large industries participate, but also large industrialised urban centres, oil production and mining. The region is one of the most urbanised areas of the world and home to many Indigenous Peoples, some still in isolation, and exhibits one of the highest rates of inequality, which is a structural and growing feature of CSA. Poverty and extreme poverty rates are higher among children, young people, women, Indigenous Peoples and migrant and rural populations, but urban extreme poverty is also growing ( ''very high confidence'' ). Socioeconomic challenges are being intensified by the COVID crisis. Most countries in CA are already ranked as the highest risk level worldwide due to the region’s high vulnerability to climate change and low adaptive capacity; the lack of climate data and proper downscaling are challenging the adaptation process ( ''high confidence'' ).

Many extreme events are already impacting the region and are projected to intensify; such events include warming temperatures and dryness, SLR, coastal erosion and ocean and lake acidification, resulting in coral bleaching and an increasing frequency and severity of droughts in some regions, with a concomitant decrease in water supply, which impact agricultural production, traditional fishing, food security and human health ( ''high confidence'' ). In CA, 10.5 million people are living in the so-called Dry Corridor, a region with an extended dry season and, now, more erratic rainfall patterns. A water crisis in Brazil affected the major cities of the country between 2014 and 2016, having become more frequent since then. Severe droughts have also been reported in Paraguay and Argentina. In contrast, the urbanised areas of NSA are highly exposed to extreme floods (41% of urban population in the Amazon Delta and Estuary). Urban areas in the region are vulnerable for many reasons, notably high rates of poverty and informality, poor and unevenly distributed infrastructure, housing deficits and the recurrent occupation of risk areas ( ''high confidence'' ).

Socioecological systems in the region are highly vulnerable to climate change, which acts in synergy with other drivers such as land use change and deep socioeconomic inequalities. Most biodiversity hotspots in the region will be negatively impacted. The Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest (two important biodiversity hotspots where about 72% of Brazil’s threatened species can be found) are exposed to different hazards (extreme events, mean temperature increase) due to climate change. Many coastal areas and their concentrated urban populations and assets are exposed to SLR. Climate change is threatening several systems (glaciers in the Andes, coral reefs in CA, the Amazon rainforest) that are already approaching a critical state at risk of irreversible damage.

Extreme heat, droughts and floods will seriously affect CSA terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The high poverty level increases the region’s vulnerability to droughts, both in cities and rural areas, where people already suffer from natural water scarcity ( ''high confidence'' ). The conversion of natural ecosystems to other land uses exacerbates the adaptation challenges. IKLK play an important role in adaptation but are also threatened by climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). EbA and CbA have increased since AR5, with an emphasis on freshwater ecosystems and forests, including protected areas. Inadequate access to finance and technology is widely identified as an adaptation barrier ( ''high confidence'' ).

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the economy. Subsistence farmers and the urban poor are expected to be the most impacted by droughts and variable rainfall in the region ( ''high confidence'' ). The increasing water scarcity is and will continue to impact food security, human health and well-being. The impacts of the many landslides and floods affect mainly the urban poor neighbourhoods and are responsible for the majority of the deaths related to disasters. SLR and intense storm surges are expected to impact the tourism and hospitality industry in general. Internal and international migrations and displacements are expected to increase ( ''high confidence'' ). Climatic drivers, such as droughts, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods, interact with social, political, geopolitical and economic drivers ( ''high confidence'' ).

The common patterns and problems, however, also highlight the possibilities for collaboration and learning among the countries and institutions in the region in order to strengthen the interface between knowledge and policy in climate-change adaptation. All countries in the region have submitted their first and updated NDCs, and many have published their NAPs, establishing priorities and formulating their own policies to cope with climate change.

Various adaptation initiatives have been launched in various sectors that focus on reducing poverty, improving livelihoods and achieving sustainable and resilient development. An increasing number of planned and autonomous initiatives has been seen, led by communities, governments or a combination of the two, involving engineering or NbS. Climate-smart agriculture is an effective option, in several conditions and regions, to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Disaster reduction solutions are increasingly being used, such as EWSs. Many and diverse initiatives are still poorly reported and evaluated in the scientific literature, leading to challenges in assessing and improving them, including consideration of tacit IKLK. The lack of climate data and proper downscaling, weak governance, obstacles to financing, and inequality constrain the adaptation process ( ''high confidence'' ).

Adaptation measures have been increased and improved since AR5 in ocean and coastal ecosystems. The majority of these measures are focused on EbA application through the application of protection and recovery of already impacted ecosystems. Another battery of measures is focused on the management and sustainability of marine resources managed in fisheries; however, these measures do not assess current and future climate-change impacts but rather focus on decreasing the impact of other non-climate factors, such as overfishing or pollution. To date, throughout CSA there is an important lack of long-term research addressing ocean and coastal ecosystem health and their species through continuous monitoring, which is one of the main barriers to adaptation. The number and type of adaptation measures for ocean and coastal ecosystems and their contributions to humans are very different among CSA countries, which highlights the number of measures related to increasing scientific research and monitoring followed by the conservation of biodiversity and changes in legislation ( ''high confidence'' ). On the other hand, those measures that include changes in financing (an important barrier) or the incorporation of traditional knowledge are not always considered in NAPs by CSA countries.

In the water sector, a lack of systematic analysis and evaluation of adaptation measures predominates, although important progress has been made since AR5 in terms of understanding the interlinkages among climate change, human vulnerabilities, governance, policies and adaptation success ( ''high confidence'' ). NbS, PES, IWRM and integration of IKLK hold great potential for success, in particular if adopting approaches with inclusive negotiation formats for water management with clear, just and transparent rights and responsibilities.

Climate change poses several challenges to the agri-food sector, impacting agricultural production and productivity and posing a risk to food security and the economy ( ''high confidence'' ). Adapting agriculture while conserving the environment represents a challenge for sustainable and resilient food production ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation in the region presents persistent barriers and limitations (Table 12.8) associated with investments and knowledge gaps ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate change urges advances in initiatives to improve education, technology and innovation in farming systems in the CSA region.

Urban adaptation is limited by financing constraints, weak intersectoral and multi-level governance and deficits in the housing and infrastructure sectors, the overcoming of which represents an opportunity for transformative adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Short-term interventions are more common than long-term planning ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation has taken place throughout the region in planning, land use and building regulation, urban control systems and risk management. Initiatives in social housing focus on reducing risk and overcoming urgent deficits but also adding to a transformative adaptation pathway ( ''high confidence'' ). Hybrid (green-grey) infrastructure has been adopted for better efficiency in flood control, sanitation, water scarcity and landslide prevention and coastal protection ( ''high confidence'' ). NbS, including GI and EbA, are increasing in urban areas ( ''high confidence'' ), although isolated engineering solutions are still widely practiced. The integration of transport and land use plans and the improvement of public transport are key to urban adaptation; mitigation prevails over adaptation in the sector ( ''high confidence'' ).

There is a growing body of evidence that climate variability and climate change are causing harm to human health in CSA—including the increasing transmission of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, heat stress, respiratory illness associated with fires, food and water insecurity associated with drought, among others ( ''medium confidence'' ). In response, countries in the region are developing innovative adaptation strategies to inform health decision-making such as integrated climate-health surveillance systems and observatories, forecasting of climate-related disasters and epidemic forecast tools. However, institutional barriers (limited resources, administrative feasibility and political mandates) need to be addressed to ensure the sustained implementation of adaptation strategies ( ''high confidence'' ).

Poor and vulnerable groups exert limited political influence; the fewer channels and opportunities that exist to participate in decision-making and policymaking make these groups less able to leverage government support to invest in adaptation measures ( ''very high confidence'' ). Participatory processes spur adaptation measures strengthening local capacities, though the literature assessing the success of such initiatives remains limited. Limits to adaptation include access to land, territory and resources, labour and livelihood opportunities, knowledge gaps and poor multi-actor coordination. Social organisation, participation and governance reconfiguration are essential for building climate resilience ( ''very high confidence'' ).

Social organisation, participation, governance, education and communications to increase perception and knowledge are essential for building the resilience to adapt and overcome expected and unexpected climate impacts ( ''very high confidence'' ). The focus on inclusion and enrolling of the full range of actors in adaptation processes, including vulnerable populations, have yielded good results in the region ( ''high confidence'' ). However, existing poverty and inequality, imbalances in power relations, corruption, weak governance and institutions, structural problems and high levels of risk tolerance may reinforce poverty and inequality cycles ( ''high confidence'' ). In addition, the continued exposure of critical infrastructure and valuable assets are signs of persisting maladaptation.

The development model prevalent in the region in recent decades has proven to be unsustainable, with the emphasis on financial sources based on natural resource depletion and extraction and the persistence and growing inequality. It is widely recognised that climate adaptation measures, if carefully selected considering coupled human-environment systems, will provide significant contributions to the sustainable development pathways of the region and to achieve the SDGs if implemented together with comprehensive strategies to reduce poverty, inequality and risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation and the construction of resilience offer not only an opportunity to reduce climate-change impacts but also an opportunity to reduce inequality and development gaps, to achieve dynamic economies and to regulate the sustainable use and transformation of the territory.

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