Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.12.3.1 Impacts on food availability ====

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All food production systems (crops, livestock, marine, fish, mixed, aquaculture) have been undermined by climate change and are expected to experience larger impacts in the future as described in earlier sections (see Sections 5.4.1, 5.5, 5.8, 5.9, 5.10). In addition, sudden production losses from extreme climate events can reduce food security ( [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cottrell--2019|Cottrell et al., 2019]] ; [[#FAO--2020|FAO et al., 2020]] ; [[#Anttila-Hughes--2021|Anttila-Hughes et al., 2021]] ). For example, a 2007 drought-induced crop failure in southern Africa led to severe food insecurity in Lesotho because of the land-locked country’s dependence on imports from South Africa that aggravated food availability and access under conditions of declining food production and land degradation ( [[#Verschuur--2021|Verschuur et al., 2021]] ). Pest and disease outbreaks in both crops and livestock due to climate change (Sections 5.4.1, 5.5.1) have also impacted food availability and access (see Box 5.8 Desert Locust case study). Loss in labour productivity from climate-change-related heat stress is a growing problem.

Climate change affects agricultural labour productivity through increased intensity and frequency of heat stress events, with those performing physical labour in high humidity and ambient temperatures most vulnerable to heat stress ( ''high confidence'' ) (Hsiang et al.; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kjellström--2019|Kjellström et al., 2019]] ; [[#Antonelli--2020|Antonelli et al., 2020]] ; [[#Shayegh--2020|Shayegh et al., 2020]] ). Labour capacity, supply and productivity loss in moderate outdoor work due to heat stress is estimated between 2% and 14%, depending on the location and indicator ( [[#Ioannou--2017|Ioannou et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kjellstrom--2018|Kjellstrom et al., 2018]] ), with an overall estimate of 5.3% loss in productivity for outdoor work between 2000 and 2015 ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Watts--2018|Watts et al., 2018]] ) but as high as 14% in low-income tropical countries ( [[#Antonelli--2020|Antonelli et al., 2020]] ; [[#Shayegh--2020|Shayegh et al., 2020]] ). Highly vulnerable occupation groups affected by heat stress include farmers, farmworkers and livestock keepers working outdoors in low-income tropical countries ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Zander--2015|Zander et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kjellstrom--2016|Kjellstrom et al., 2016]] ; [[#Flouris--2018|Flouris et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kjellstrom--2018|Kjellstrom et al., 2018]] ; [[#Levi--2018|Levi et al., 2018]] ). Farmworkers and small-scale food producers in high- and middle-income countries involved in outdoor labour are also affected by heat stress ( [[#Zander--2015|Zander et al., 2015]] ; [[#Gosling--2018|Gosling et al., 2018]] ; [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ; [[#Watts--2021|Watts et al., 2021]] ). There is also evidence that heat stress is affecting labour supply through variation in nutrition intake ( [[#Antonelli--2020|Antonelli et al., 2020]] ).

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