Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.9.1 Urbanisation, Population and Development Trends ===

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Africa is the most rapidly urbanising region in the world, with an annual urban population growth rate of 3.6% for 2005–2015 ( [[#UN-Habitat--2016|UN-Habitat, 2016]] ). About 57% of the population currently lives in rural areas, but the proportion of the population living in urban areas is projected to exceed 60% by 2050 ( [[#UNDESA--2019b|UNDESA, 2019b]] ) ( [[#UN-Habitat--2016|UN-Habitat, 2016]] ). Much of the rapid rate of urbanisation has resulted from the growth of small towns and intermediary cities (African Development Bank et al., 2016).

Approximately 59% of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population resides in informal settlements (in some cities up to 80%), and the population in informal settlements is expected to increase ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Taylor--2014|Taylor and Peter, 2014]] ; [[#UN-Habitat--2014|UN-Habitat, 2014]] ; 2016; UNDP, 2019). These urbanisation trends are compounding increasing exposure to climate hazards, particularly floods and heatwaves ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Dodman--2015|Dodman et al., 2015]] ).

Globally, the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation are taking place in Africa’s coastal zones ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Merkens--2016|Merkens et al., 2016]] ). Coastal urban populations account for 25–29% of the total population in west, north and southern Africa ( [[#OECD/SWAC--2020|OECD/SWAC, 2020]] ). Accounting for a continuing young population, stagnant economies and migration to regional growth centres, projections indicate that the low-lying coastal zone population of Africa could increase to over 100 million people by 2030 and over 200 million people by 2060 relative to 54 million in 2000 ( [[#Neumann--2015|Neumann et al., 2015]] ; see Figure 9.28).

Climate-related displacement is widespread in Africa, with increased migration to urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa linked to decreased rainfall in rural areas, increasing urbanisation and affecting household vulnerability (see Box 9.9). Much of this growth can occur in informal settlements which are growing due to both climatic and non-climatic drivers, and which often house temporary migrants, including internally displaced people. Such informal settlements are located in areas exposed to climate change and variability and are exposed to floods, landslides, sea level rise and storm surges in low-lying coastal areas, or alongside rivers that frequently overflow, thereby exacerbating existing vulnerabilities ( [[#Satterthwaite--2020|Satterthwaite et al., 2020]] ).

Sub-Saharan Africa’s large infrastructure deficit (quantity, quality and access) with respect to road transport, electricity, water supply and sanitation places the region at the lowest of all developing regions ( [[#AfDB--2018a|AfDB, 2018a]] ; [[#Calderon--2018|Calderon et al., 2018]] ). Adequate infrastructure to support Africa’s rapidly growing population is important to raise living standards and productivity in informal settlements ( [[#AfDB--2018b|AfDB, 2018b]] ; [[#UN%20Environment--2019|UN Environment, 2019]] ). Yet planned infrastructure developments, including those related to the AU’s PIDA, along with other energy plans, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, may increase or decrease both climate change mitigation and adaptation depending on whether infrastructure planning integrates current and future climate change risks ( [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Addaney--2020|Addaney, 2020]] ; see Box 9.5).

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