Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.6.5.3 Case Study: Protected Area Planning in Response to Climate Change in Thailand ====

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Scale: National

Issue: Protected area network planning

Many countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are expanding protected area networks to meet the Aichi Target 11 of at least 17% of terrestrial area protected, and it is important to take the effects of climate change into account. Existing protected areas in Thailand cover approximately 21% of the land area and it is one of the few tropical countries that has achieved the Aichi Target 11. Most protected areas in Thailand were established on an ad hoc basis to protect remaining forest cover and, as a result, they do not represent diverse habitats and their associated species ( [[#Chutipong--2014|Chutipong et al., 2014]] ; [[#Tantipisanuh--2016|Tantipisanuh, 2016]] ) so they may not be resilient to the interacting impacts of future land use and climate change ( [[#Klorvuttimontara--2011|Klorvuttimontara et al., 2011]] ; [[#Trisurat--2018|Trisurat, 2018]] ).

Recent research conducted in northern Thailand indicated that the existing protected areas (31% of the regional area) cannot secure the viability of many medium-sized and large mammals. The climate space of most species will shift substantially, bringing a risk of extinction. Results, based on a spatial distribution model and network flow, determined there was a need for expansion areas of 5,200 km 2 in size, or 3% of the region, to substantially minimise the high level of risk and increase the average coping capacity of the protection of suitable habitats from 82%—the current plan—to 90%. These results were adopted by Thailand’s Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, and included in the National Wildlife Administration and Conservation Plan for 2021–2031.

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