Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.12.3.4 Impacts on food stability ====

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Climate change has already changed the start and duration of the growing season and increased variability of rainfall in some places, with impacts on food intake and nutritional status and income for low-income and small-scale producers ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' , ( [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cooper--2019|Cooper et al., 2019]] ). Evidence to date suggests that climate change has negative impacts on the stability of food supply over the medium to long term, thereby affecting food stability ( [[#Myers--2017b|Myers et al., 2017b]] ). Increasing number and intensity of adverse weather events, driven by climate change ( [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ), are important factors decreasing food stability, through reduced availability, increased local price volatility, reduced livelihoods for food producers and disruption to food transport ( [[#Toufique--2014|Toufique and Belton, 2014]] ; [[#Verma--2014|Verma et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ruiz%20Meza--2015|Ruiz Meza, 2015]] ; [[#Clay--2018|Clay et al., 2018]] ; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ).

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'''Box 5.9: Desert Locust Case Study: Climate as Compounding Effect on Food Security'''
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At the end of 2019, desert locust swarms infested Eastern Africa and caused widespread damage to crops and pastures, threatening food security and livelihoods ( [[#Kimathi--2020|Kimathi et al., 2020]] ; [[#Salih--2020|Salih et al., 2020]] ). The FAO estimates that over 200,000 ha of crop and pastureland were damaged, rendering 2 million people in the region acutely food insecure ( [[#IGAD--2020|IGAD, 2020]] ). The desert locust infestation was facilitated by two tropical cyclones that created desert lakes in a usually dry region of Saudi Arabia. Moist soils, warm temperatures and ample vegetation provided a suitable environment for desert locust breeding and migration to Yemen and Somalia, where the pest remained uncontrolled due to conflict and spread to neighbouring countries. A series of political and socioeconomic weaknesses such as armed conflict, limited financial resources and lack of early actions compounded the impact of the current invasion and made it the most damaging in 70 years ( [[#Meynard--2020|Meynard et al., 2020]] ; [[#Salih--2020|Salih et al., 2020]] ).

Although desert locusts have been here for centuries, this recent outbreak can be linked to a unique feature of the positive IOD event, in part caused by long-term trends in SSTs ( [[#Wang--2020a|Wang et al., 2020a]] ). The warming of the western Indian Ocean has increased frequency and intensity of severe weather, including tropical cyclones ( [[#Roxy--2014|Roxy et al., 2014]] ; Murakami H, 2017; [[#Roxy--2017|Roxy et al., 2017]] ). Under a 1.5°C warmer climate, extreme positive IODs are anticipated to occur twice as often, which could also increase the occurrence of pest outbreaks ( [[#Cai--2018|Cai et al., 2018]] ).

Climate change increases the need for robust adaptation measures, such as transnational early-warning systems, biological control mechanisms, crop diversification and further technological innovations in areas of sound and light stimulants, remote sensing, and modelling for tracking and forecasting of movement ( [[#Maeno--2018|Maeno and Ould Babah Ebbe, 2018]] ; [[#Peng--2020|Peng et al., 2020]] ). The desert locust outbreak and the role of the Indian Ocean warming show that the impacts of climate change can increase unpredictable events. Extreme weather events act as a compounding effect, exacerbated further by weak governance systems, political instability, limited financial resources and poor early-warning systems ( [[#Meynard--2020|Meynard et al., 2020]] ).

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