Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

=== Atlas.9.5 Summary ===

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Across North America it is ''very likely'' that positive surface temperature trends are persistent '''.''' Across near-Arctic latitudes of North America, increases are exceptionally pronounced, greater than 0.5°C per decade ( ''high confidence'' ). In parts of Eastern and Central North America it is ''likely'' that annual precipitation has increased over the period 1961–2015 but with no clear trends in other regions except for parts of the south-western USA and north-western Mexico where there is ''medium confidence'' in drying.

Model representation of the climatology of mean temperature and precipitation has ''likely'' improved compared to AR5 over North America. This is aided by continuous model development, and the existence of new coordinated modelling initiatives such as NA-CORDEX. There is ''high confidence'' that downscaling a subset of CMIP models that spans the range of climate sensitivities in the full ensemble is critical for producing a representative range of dynamically downscaled projections.

It is ''virtually certain'' that annual and seasonal surface temperatures over all of North America will continue to increase at a rate greater than the global average, with greater increases in the far north. It is ''very likely'' , based on global and regional model future projections, that on an annual time scale precipitation will increase over most of North America north of about 45°N and in Eastern North America, and it is ''likely'' that it will decrease in the south-western USA and northern Mexico, particularly in winter. Elsewhere the direction of change of precipitation is uncertain. It is ''virtually certain'' that snow cover will experience a decline over most regions of North America during the 21st century, in terms of water equivalent, extent and annual duration '''.''' It is, however, ''likely'' that some high-latitude regions will rather experience an increase in winter SWE, due to the snowfall increase prevailing over the warming effect.

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