Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

=== FAQ 12.3 | How do climatic events and conditions affect migration and displacement in Central and South America, will this change due to climate change, and how can communities adapt? ===

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''Migration and displacements associated with climatic hazards are becoming more frequent in CSA, and they are expected to continue to increase. These complex processes require comprehensive actions in their places of origin and reception, to improve both adaptation in more affected places and the conditions of mobilisation.''

The migration, voluntary and involuntary, of individuals, families and groups is common in CSA. People migrate nationally and internationally, temporarily or permanently, predominantly from rural areas—often immersed in poverty—to urban areas. Common social drivers of migration in the region are the economy, politics, land tenure and land management change, lack of access to markets, lack of infrastructure, and violence; environmental drivers include loss of water, crops and livestock, land degradation and sudden or gradual onset of climate hazards.

The increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts, tropical storms, hurricanes and heavy rains producing landslides and floods have amplified internal movements, overall rural to urban. For instance, rural-to-urban migration in northern Brazil and international migration from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to North America are partly a consequence of prolonged droughts, which have increased the stress of food availability in these highly impoverished regions. Diminished access to water is also a result of privatisation of that resource. In CA, the majority of migrants are young men, reducing the labour force in their places of origin. However, the migrants send back substantial amounts of money, which have become the main source of foreign exchange for their countries and the main source of income for their families.

Because poor people have fewer resources to adapt to changing conditions, they are usually the most impacted by climate hazards since they are already struggling to survive under normal conditions. These populations are the most likely to migrate, chiefly because of the loss of their livelihoods, their precarious housing and settlements and the lack of money and international aid. Other important factors are the minimal governmental support and assistance through social safety nets and extension services, the scarcity and low quality of education and health services, their isolation and marginality and the insecurity of land rights. These same conditions, though, may hinder their mobility or even render them immobile. Nevertheless, in some cases, despite worsening conditions, people decide not to move.

The magnitude and frequency of droughts and hurricanes are projected to keep increasing by 2050, which may force millions of people to leave their homes. Climate models show some dry regions becoming even dryer in the coming decades, increasing the stress on small farmers who rely on rainfall to water their fields. Glacier retreat and water scarcity are becoming strong drivers of migration in the Andes. SLR affects activities such as fishing and tourism, which will foster further migration. In Brazil, at least 0.9 million more people will migrate interregionally under future climate conditions.

Addressing migration and displacement requires diverse interventions: in dry regions it is recommended to improve water management in the places of origin of migration, including storage, distribution and irrigation. Wet regions, lowlands and floodplains will benefit from preventing construction in areas prone to landslides and flooding. Government and international aid are also important for improving people’s options to adapt and enhance their resilience to climate impacts. In northern Brazil, for example, government financial support has significantly reduced drought-related migration. There exists between Guatemala and Canada a temporary migration programme to bring in migrant workers during the harvest season. The United States is also increasing these types of legal temporary migration.

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