Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.9.2.1 Observed Impacts on Human Settlements ====

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The spatial distribution of climate hazards and observed impacts in terms of total people affected (displaced persons and deaths) during 2010–2020 is shown in Figure 9.27. From 2000–2019, floods and droughts accounted for 80% and 16%, respectively, of the 337 million affected persons, and a further 32% and 46%, respectively, of 46,078 deaths from natural disasters in Africa ( [[#CRED--2019|CRED, 2019]] ). Flooding is a major hazard across Africa ( [[#Kundzewicz--2014|Kundzewicz et al., 2014]] ; [[#Douglas--2017|Douglas, 2017]] ) and is increasing ( [[#Zevenbergen--2016|Zevenbergen et al., 2016]] ; [[#Elboshy--2019|Elboshy et al., 2019]] ). An increase in extreme poverty and up to a 35% decrease in consumption has been associated with exposure to flood shocks ( [[#Azzarri--2020|Azzarri and Signorelli, 2020]] ). Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region globally that did not show decreasing rates of flood mortality since the 1990s ( [[#Tanoue--2016|Tanoue et al., 2016]] ). Economic opportunities, transportation of goods and services, and mobility and access to essential services, including health and education, are greatly hindered by flooding ( [[#Gannon--2018|Gannon et al., 2018]] ). Severe impacts from tropical cyclone landfalls have been recorded in east and southeastern Africa ( [[#Rapolaki--2018|Rapolaki and Reason, 2018]] ; [[#Cambaza--2019|Cambaza et al., 2019]] ; [[#Chatiza--2019|Chatiza, 2019]] ; [[#Hope--2019|Hope, 2019]] ). Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in early 2019 caused flooding of districts in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, with substantial loss and damage to infrastructure in the energy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, health and education sectors, particularly in Mozambique (Figure 9.27; see also Cross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter 4; [[#Warren--2019|Warren, 2019]] ; [[#Dube--2021|Dube et al., 2021]] ; [[#Phiri--2021|Phiri et al., 2021]] ).

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[[File:da8409e06186a268e4a12de3eaa98b66 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_027.png]]

'''Figure 9.27 |''' '''From 2010–2020, over 166 million people were reported to be affected by climate hazards across Africa.''' Maps show

'''(a)''' location of all reported climate hazards;

'''(b)''' people affected by droughts;

'''(c)''' people affected by convective storms;

'''(d)''' people affected by floods,

'''(e)''' total deaths from tropical cyclones, and

'''(f)''' total deaths from heat waves. Source: [[#EMDAT%20and%20CRED--2020|EMDAT and CRED (2020)]] . Note: Although extreme weather damage databases under-report heatwaves (which is indicated in panel (f) by very few deaths), the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them in the future under climate change ( [[#Harrington--2020|Harrington and Otto, 2020]] ).

'''Table 9.7 |''' Case studies of climate hazard impacts and risks to selected human settlements in Africa

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Hazard

! Country/City

! Impact on Human Settlement and Infrastructure

! Source

|-
| Sea level rise and storm surge

| Egypt

(North Africa)

| '''December 2010, January 2011 and October 2015:''' Storm surge of 1.2 m.a.s. l. (metres above sea level) (typical of the Nile Delta coast: 0.4–0.5 m). Coastal flooding and damage to some coastal structures. Moderate flooding of the Nile Delta lowlands.

Alexandria city: Flooding generated by heavy rainfall (2015). Increased turbidity of water sources affected efficiency of water treatment plants leading to reduction of water supplies affecting public health systems. Potable water supply affected by saltwater intrusion. Coastal erosion and property damage.

| [[#Kloos--2015|Kloos and Baumert (2015)]] ; Abutaleb et al. (2018)

Eldeberky Y (2015); [[#Yehia--2017|Yehia et al. (2017)]]

|-
| rowspan="2"| Drought

| Southern Africa

| '''El Niño drought, 2015–2016:''' Western Cape Region affected 8.6 million people. Losses: &gt;USD 2.2 billion. Power generation reduced by 75% at Kariba dam (Zambia) in 2016, and the Cahora Bassa dam (Mozambique) reduced to 34% of its capacity with widespread impact on electricity supplies across southern Africa.

| Davis-Reddy et al. (2017); Spalding-Fecher et al. (2017)

[[#Brooks--2019|Brooks (2019)]]

|-
| Somalia

(East Africa)

| '''Somalia drought, 2016–2017:''' 926,000 newly displaced people reported (November 2016–October 2017). Around 40% of total drought-related displacements accommodated in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismayo; 60% hosted in other secondary cities. Increased population density and overcrowding in Somalia’s urban areas. Explosion of new shelters and tents for displaced persons within and in outskirts of cities. In Mogadishu, 34% of new settlements developed within 6 months.

| [[#Government%20of%20Somalia--2018|Government of Somalia (2018)]]

|-
| rowspan="2"| Flooding

| Malawi

(East Africa)

| '''Floods, 2019:''' Approximately 975,600 people affected, 672 injured, 60 persons killed and 86,976 people displaced. 288,371 houses damaged. 129 bridges and 68 culverts destroyed. Around 1841 km of road network estimated at USD 36.1 million destroyed. Total cost of damage and losses: housing sector, USD 106.9 million; energy, USD 3.1 million; water and sanitation, USD 6.4 million; transport, USD 37.0 million. Total cost of destroyed physical assets, USD 157.7 million. Damage and losses in Blantyre city: housing sector, USD 29.87 million; energy sector, USD 0.38 million; transport sector, USD 1.72 million.

| [[#Government%20of%20Malawi--2019|Government of Malawi (2019)]]

|-
|
|-
| Tropical cyclone

| Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi (southern Africa)

| '''Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, 2019:''' Severe flooding of districts in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi; 233,900 houses completely destroyed or damaged in Mozambique.

Cyclone Kenneth: about 40,000 houses and 19 health facilities destroyed.

Cyclone Idai: destroyed or damaged 1345 km of transmission lines, 10,216 km of distribution lines, two 90 MW generation plants, 30 sub-stations and 4000 transformers, resulting in estimated damage of USD 133.5 million and loss of USD 47.9 million in the energy sector in Mozambique. 602 and 299 people killed in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, respectively; about 1.5 million people affected in Mozambique and 270,000 in Zimbabwe.

In Beira (Mozambique), 60% of city was inundated, 70% of houses damaged or totally destroyed, mostly in the poorest neighbourhood, and 90% of the city’s power grid affected. Huge losses and damages to infrastructures in the energy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, health and education sectors were also recorded.

| ( [[#Cambaza--2019|Cambaza et al., 2019]] ; [[#Chatiza--2019|Chatiza, 2019]] ; [[#Government%20of%20Mozambique--2019|Government of Mozambique, 2019]] ; [[#Hope--2019|Hope, 2019]] ; [[#Lequechane--2020|Lequechane et al., 2020]] ; [[#Phiri--2021|Phiri et al., 2021]] )

( [[#Enenkel--2020|Enenkel et al., 2020]] )

|-
| rowspan="2"| Landslide

| Freetown

(West Africa)

| '''August, 2017:''' At least 500 people killed and over 600 people declared missing, &gt;3000 residents rendered homeless; 349 houses destroyed. Damage to health facilities and educational buildings. Economic cost of landslide and flood, USD 31.6 million.

| ( [[#Cui--2019|Cui et al., 2019]] )

( [[#World%20Bank--2017b|World Bank, 2017b]] )

|-
| Uganda

(East Africa)

| '''Slopes of Mt Elgon, 2010:''' More than 350 deaths and 500,000 people needed to be relocated.

| ( [[#Croitoru--2019|Croitoru et al., 2019]] )

|}

From 2005–2020, flood-induced damage over Africa was estimated at over USD 4.4 billion, with eastern and western Africa being the most affected regions ( [[#EMDAT%20and%20CRED--2020|EMDAT and CRED, 2020]] ). Total damages in four west African countries (Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo) in 2017 were estimated at USD 850 million for pluvial floods and USD 555 million for fluvial floods ( [[#Croitoru--2019|Croitoru et al., 2019]] ). Unprecedented economic loss, in terms of goods and properties, estimated by the Nigerian insurance industry at USD 200 million resulted from floods in Lagos in 2011 ( [[#Adelekan--2016|Adelekan, 2016]] ). In southern Africa, the highest costs were incurred from flood losses during the period 2000–2015 ( [[#UNEP-FI--2019b|UNEP-FI, 2019b]] ; [[#Simpson--2020|Simpson, 2020]] ).

Business disruptions from climate impacts have implications for deepening poverty ( [[#Adelekan--2015|Adelekan and Fregene, 2015]] ). Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) employ 60–90% of workers in many African countries and contribute 40% or more to the GDP in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe ( [[#Muriithi--2017|Muriithi, 2017]] ). The viability of businesses and economic well-being of large populations employed in SMEs is severely affected by climate hazards as reported for local wind storms in Ibadan ( [[#Adelekan--2012|Adelekan, 2012]] ), El Niño-related flooding (Nairobi), drought-induced water supply disruption (Gaborone) and power outages (Lusaka) ( [[#Gannon--2018|Gannon et al., 2018]] ). High water demand due to high rates of urbanisation and population growth, coupled with drought, reduce groundwater levels in cities (e.g., Bouake, Harare, Tripoli, Niamey) and increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater in coastal areas, reducing water availability and water security, particularly for poorer populations not connected to municipal water networks ( [[#Aswad--2019|Aswad et al., 2019]] ; [[#Claon--2020|Claon et al., 2020]] ).

Evidence of the impact of heat waves in urban Africa in the current climate is sparse, due in part to low reporting and monitoring ( [[#Engelbrecht--2015|Engelbrecht et al., 2015]] ; [[#Harrington--2020|Harrington and Otto, 2020]] ). Knowledge is also limited on the interaction of climate change, urban growth and the urban heat island effect in Africa ( [[#Chapman--2017|Chapman et al., 2017]] ). In north Africa, the present-day number of high heat stress nights is around 10 times larger in urban than rural areas ( [[#Fischer--2012|Fischer et al., 2012]] ).

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