Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.6.4.4 Relevant Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers ====

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The Mediterranean summer climate is affected by large-scale modes of natural variability, the most dominant being the NAO (Annex IV) in winter and the summer NAO in summer ( [[#Folland--2009|Folland et al., 2009]] ; [[#Bladé--2012|Bladé et al., 2012]] ), although regional differences exist. The influence of those modes of variability over the eastern Mediterranean is recognized by some studies ( [[#Chronis--2011|Chronis et al., 2011]] ; [[#Kahya--2011|Kahya, 2011]] ; [[#Black--2012|Black, 2012]] ; [[#Bladé--2012|Bladé et al., 2012]] ), but disputed by others ( [[#Ben-Gai--2001|Ben-Gai et al., 2001]] ; [[#Ziv--2006|Ziv et al., 2006]] ; [[#Donat--2014|Donat et al., 2014]] ; [[#Turki--2016|Turki et al., 2016]] ; [[#Zamrane--2016|Zamrane et al., 2016]] ; [[#Han--2019|Han et al., 2019]] ). During positive summer NAO phase, associated with an upper-level trough over the Balkans, the Mediterranean is anomalously wet ( [[#Bladé--2012|Bladé et al., 2012]] ). Drivers of Mediterranean climate variability include modes of variability such as the AMV ( [[#Sutton--2012|Sutton and Dong, 2012]] ) and the Asian monsoon ( [[#Rodwell--1996|Rodwell and Hoskins, 1996]] ; [[#Logothetis--2020|Logothetis et al., 2020]] ). In addition, the increase of GHGs (e.g., [[#Zittis--2019|Zittis et al., 2019]] ), the decrease of anthropogenic aerosols over Europe and the Mediterranean since the 1980s resulting from air pollution policies ( [[#Turnock--2016|Turnock et al., 2016]] ), and anthropogenic land-use change ( [[#Millán--2014|Millán, 2014]] ; MedECC 2020) have been shown to be linked to the regional warming. The role of the zonal averaged circulation as a driver for the Mediterranean climate has been stressed by ( [[#Garfinkel--2020|Garfinkel et al., 2020]] ).

The attribution of observed Mediterranean summer warming to above drivers and implications for future projections will be discussed in Sections 10.6.4.5 and 10.6.4.6.

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