Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

=== FAQ 12.4 | How is climate change impacting and how is it expected to impact food production in Central and South America in the next 30 years, and what effective adaptation strategies are and can be adopted in the region? ===

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''Agriculture is a fundamental sector in the development of societies from economic and social perspectives, and so it is a major component of CSA countries’ adaptive strategies. Implementation of sustainable agriculture practices, such as improved management on native grasslands or agroforestry systems for crop and livestock production, can increase productivity while improving adaptability.''

Over the last two decades, countries throughout CSA have been developing rapidly. The agricultural sector is fundamental to this development from economic and social perspectives. Some countries in the region are major global food exporters:

* Corn: three of the top 10 exporters are Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay;
* Soybean exports: Brazil and Argentina are among the top 5 and Paraguay and Bolivia rank in the top 12;
* Coffee exports: 5 of the top 10 export countries are Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Peru and Guatemala;
* Fruits: 2 of the top 10 fresh fruit exporting countries are Chile and Ecuador;
* Fishmeal exports globally are led by Peru, Chile and Ecuador;
* Beef: four of the top exporting countries are from this region: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

CSA is among the regions with the highest potential to increase food supplies, particularly to more densely populated regions in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. A better understanding of the impact of the economy on the environment and the contribution of the environment to the economy is critical for identifying opportunities for innovation and promoting activities that could lead to sustainable economic growth without depleting natural resources and increasing sensitivity to climate change and climate variability. The consideration of food as a commodity instead of a common resource leads to the accumulation of underpriced food resources at the expense of natural capital. Without serious emissions reduction measures, climate models project an average 1°C to 4°C increase in maximum temperatures and a 30% decrease in rainfall up to 2050, across CSA. Tropical SA is projected to warm at higher rates than the southern part of SA. Given these circumstances, some regions in CSA (Andes region and CA) will just meet or fall below the critical food supply/demand ratio for their population. Meanwhile, the temperate southern-most region of SA is projected to have agricultural production surplus. The challenge for this region will be to retain the ability to feed and adequately nourish its internal population as well as make an important contribution to food supplies available to the rest of the world.

The NDCs of most CSA countries expressly include agriculture as a major component of their adaptive strategy. From the recommendations presented, five general adaptive themes, or imperatives, emerge: (a) inclusion of climate-change projections as a key element for ministries of agriculture and research institutes in their decision-making processes, (b) support of research on and adoption of drought- and heat-tolerant crop varieties, (c) promotion of sustainable irrigation as an effective adaptive strategy, (d) recovery of degraded lands and sustainable intensification of agriculture to prevent further deforestation, and (e) implementation of climate-smart practices and technologies to increase productivity while improving adaptability.

Climate-smart practices provide a framework to operationalise actions aimed at understanding synergies among productivity, adaptation and mitigation. A significant amount of evidence supports the potential for climate-smart-practice technologies to produce such triple wins as natural pastoral systems in the southern region of SA. Such systems allow for the combination of food production and environmental sustainability. The production of meat based on native grasslands with grazing management that optimises forage allowance can achieve high production levels while providing multiple ecosystem benefits. Optimal forage allowance means offering animals enough forage in order to meet requirements while avoiding overgrazing. This management practice simultaneously increases productivity, reduces GHG emissions while improving soil carbon sequestration and minimises other environmental impacts such as excess of nutrients, fossil-based energy use and biodiversity loss. Pastoral farming systems that manage grazing and feeding efficiently are an example of the integration of food security, environmental conservation and nature-based adaptation to climate change.

Agroforestry systems are present in the tropical region of CSA. Trees are present in a large part of the agricultural landscape of this region, either dispersed or in lines, supporting the production of coffee, cocoa, fruits, pastures and livestock in various agroforestry configurations. In CA, shade-grown coffee reduces weed control and improves the quality and taste of the product. Agroforestry uses nitrogen-fixing trees ( ''Leguminosae'' ), such as ''Leucaena'' in Colombia and ''Inga'' in Brazil, to restore soil nitrogen fertility. Tropical forest soils are generally nutrient-poor and unsuited to long-term agricultural use. Land converted to agriculture by cutting and burning natural vegetation tends to remain productive for only a few years. Agroforestry and so-called silvopastoral systems, which incorporate trees into crop and livestock systems, have been shown to have a dramatic impact on the maintenance and restoration of long-term productivity in agricultural landscapes, including degraded and abandoned land. Agroforestry systems can provide major benefits through enhanced food security, stronger local economies and increased ecosystem services such as carbon storage, regulation of climate and water cycles, control of pests and diseases and maintenance of soil fertility. Because of these multiple goods and services, agroforestry practices are considered one of the key strategies for the development of climate-smart agriculture.

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