Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.12.4.3 Reaching Sustainable Development Goal 2 ====

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Current projections indicate that it is ''highly likely'' that the UN SDG2 (‘Zero Hunger’) by 2030 will not be achieved, with climate impacts on one of several drivers of food security and nutrition preventing this goal, including in Africa, Small Island States and South Asia ( ''high confidence)'' ( [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Otekunrin--2019|Otekunrin et al., 2019]] ; [[#Singh--2019|Singh et al., 2019]] ; [[#Atukunda--2021|Atukunda et al., 2021]] ; [[#Kumar--2021|Kumar et al., 2021]] ; [[#Vogliano--2021|Vogliano et al., 2021]] ). Integrated policy strategies that consider synergies and trade-offs between different food system components would strengthen the likelihood of meeting SDG2 goals ( [[#Dyngeland--2020|Dyngeland et al., 2020]] ; [[#Lipper--2020|Lipper et al., 2020]] ; [[#Vogliano--2021|Vogliano et al., 2021]] ) ( [[#Grosso--2020|Grosso et al., 2020]] ). Adaptation options which address climate risks for food security and nutrition are discussed below.

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'''Box 5.10: Food Safety Interactions with Food Security and Malnutrition'''
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Climate change significantly increases the future food safety risks ( ''high confidence'' ) (Sections 5.8.2, 5.8.3, 5.11.1, Box 5.9). Increasing temperatures and drought stress are expected to lead to greater aflatoxin contamination of food crops. Aflatoxins, a major foodborne hazard, contaminate staple crops and are associated with various health risks, including stunting in children and cancer ( [[#Koshiol--2017|Koshiol et al., 2017]] ). In LICs, children with high exposure to aflatoxins were found to be more likely to suffer from micronutrient (zinc and vitamin A) deficiencies ( [[#Watson--2016b|Watson et al., 2016b]] ). Climate change is expected to cause decreases in micro- and macronutrient content of foods, leading to an increased burden of infectious diseases, diarrhea and anaemia, with an estimated 10% increase in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2050 associated with undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies ( [[#Aberman--2014|Aberman and Tirado, 2014]] ; [[#Smith--2018|Smith and Myers, 2018]] ; [[#Weyant--2018|Weyant et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zhu--2018a|Zhu et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Ebi--2019|Ebi and Loladze, 2019]] ; [[#FAO--2020a|FAO, 2020a]] ; [[#Sulser--2021b|Sulser et al., 2021b]] ).

Children in low-income countries will be at greater risk of undernutrition from these multiple climate change impacts, including lower food availability, quality and safety and increased risk of diarrheal disease ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Aberman--2014|Aberman and Tirado, 2014]] ). One study of 30 countries in Africa estimated that, by 2100, increased temperatures under RCP8.5 could increase children’s wasting by 37% in western Africa and 25% in southern Africa ( [[#Baker--2020|Baker and Anttila-Hughes, 2020]] ).

The combination of climate change and the presence of arsenic in paddy rice fields is expected to increase the toxic heavy metal content of rice and reduce production by 2100, threatening food security and food safety mainly in low-income countries where rice is the main staple ( [[#Neumann--2017|Neumann et al., 2017]] ; [[#Muehe--2019|Muehe et al., 2019]] ; [[#Farhat--2021|Farhat et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table 5.17 |''' Examples of adaptation responses to drought and floods by food security level and time frame. Adapted from Ilboudo Nébié et al. (2021) Table 4, with information from [[#Bahadur--2015|Bahadur et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Costella--2017|Costella et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Gros--2019|Gros et al. (2019)]] ; Ulrichs et al. (2019); [[#Medina%20Hidalgo--2020|Medina Hidalgo et al. (2020)]] ; [[#Bacon--2021|Bacon et al. (2021)]] ; and [[#Verschuur--2021|Verschuur et al. (2021)]] .

{| class="wikitable"
|-
!
! colspan="3"| '''Food insecurity level and time frame of adaptation'''

!
|-
! '''Adaptation response to drought or floods'''

! '''Acute, s''' '''hort ter''' '''m'''

! '''Moderate,''' '''medium ter''' '''m'''

! '''Chronic, l''' '''ong ter''' '''m'''

! '''Resilience type'''

|-
| Forecast-based financing (provides unconditional cash in advance of extreme event)

| X

|
| rowspan="3"| ''Anticipatory'' : people and systems are better prepared for climate shock by reduced exposure or vulnerability.

|-
| Early-warning systems/climate services and education for disaster preparation

| X

| X

| X

|-
| Social protection programmes with regular provisions which allow for asset building, e.g., savings, building of informal networks, purchase of livestock

| X

| X

|
|-
| Humanitarian food aid and malnutrition treatment

| X

| X

|
| rowspan="4"| ''Absorptive capacity'' : people or systems cope with climate-related shocks or systems while and immediately after they occur.

|-
| Home-grown nutrition-sensitive school feeding programmes

|
| X

| X

|-
| Social protection programmes with short-term targeted response, e.g., short-term cash transfers, food assistance for asset building such as wells

| X

|
|-
| Weather index insurance program

| X

| X

| X

|-
| Regional grain banks run by farmer associations

|
| X

| X

| rowspan="7"| ''Adaptive capacity'' : can adjust to long-term climate risks and disasters, reduce vulnerability to future shocks.

|-
| Savings, credit and local food procurement support for smallholder farmers

|
| X

| X

|-
| Agroecosystem diversification, other agroecological practices to strengthen ecosystem services in long term (see Box 5.10)

|
| X

| X

|-
| Rainwater evacuation infrastructure combined with flood management and waste collection and urban gardening

|
| X

| X

|-
| Drought- or flood-resistant crop varieties

|
| X

| X

|-
| Expand trade partners beyond climactically connected partners

|
| X

| X

|-
| Gender transformative or responsive agriculture programmes

|
| X

| X

|}

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