Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

== Cross-Chapter Box 12: Residual Risks, Limits to Adaptation and Loss and Damage ==

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====== Lead Authors ======

* Riyanti Djalante (Japan, Indonesia)
* Kristie L. Ebi (United States)
* Debora Ley (Guatemala, Mexico)
* Reinhard Mechler (Germany)
* Patricia Fernanda Pinho (Brazil)
* Aromar Revi (India)
* Petra Tschakert (Australia, Austria)

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====== Contributing Authors ======

* Karen Paiva Henrique (Brazil)
* Saleemul Huq (United Kingdom, Bangladesh)
* Rachel James (United Kingdom)
* Adelle Thomas (The Bahamas)
* Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh (Netherlands)

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'''Introduction'''

Residual climate-related risks, limits to adaptation, and loss and damage (see Glossary) are increasingly assessed in the scientific literature (van der Geest and Warner, 2015; Boyd et al., 2017; Mechler et al., 2019) <sup>[[#fn:r50|50]]</sup> . The AR5 (IPCC, 2013; Oppenheimer et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r51|51]]</sup> documented impacts that have been detected and attributed to climate change, projected increasing climate-related risks with continued global warming, and recognized barriers and limits to adaptation. It recognized that adaptation is constrained by biophysical, institutional, financial, social and cultural factors, and that the interaction of these factors with climate change can lead to soft adaptation limits (adaptive actions currently not available) and hard adaptation limits (adaptive actions appear infeasible leading to unavoidable impacts) (Klein et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r52|52]]</sup> .

'''Loss and damage: concepts and perspectives'''

‘Loss and Damage’ (L&amp;D) has been discussed in international climate negotiations for three decades (INC, 1991; Calliari, 2016; Vanhala and Hestbaek, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r53|53]]</sup> . A work programme on L&amp;D was established as part of the Cancun Adaptation Framework in 2010 supporting developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts (UNFCCC, 2011) <sup>[[#fn:r54|54]]</sup> . In 2013, the Conference of the Parties (COP) 19 established the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) as a formal part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) architecture (UNFCCC, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r55|55]]</sup> . It acknowledges that L&amp;D ‘includes, and in some cases involves more than, that which can be reduced by adaptation’ (UNFCCC, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r56|56]]</sup> . The Paris Agreement recognized ‘the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change’ through Article 8 (UNFCCC, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r57|57]]</sup> .

There is no one definition of L&amp;D in climate policy, and analysis of policy documents and stakeholder views has demonstrated ambiguity (Vanhala and Hestbaek, 2016; Boyd et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r58|58]]</sup> . UNFCCC documents suggest that L&amp;D is associated with adverse impacts of climate change on human and natural systems, including impacts from extreme events and slow-onset processes (UNFCCC, 2011b, 2014, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r59|59]]</sup> . Some documents focus on impacts in developing or particularly vulnerable countries (UNFCCC, 2011b, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r60|60]]</sup> . They refer to economic (loss of assets and crops) and non-economic (biodiversity, culture, health) impacts, the latter also being an action area under the WIM workplan, and irreversible and permanent loss and damage. Lack of clarity of what the term addresses (avoidance through adaptation and mitigation, unavoidable losses, climate risk management, existential risk) was expressed among stakeholders, with further disagreement ensuing about what constitutes anthropogenic climate change ''versus'' natural climate variability (Boyd et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r61|61]]</sup> .

'''Limits to adaptation and residual risks'''

The AR5 described adaptation limits as points beyond which actors’ objectives are compromised by intolerable risks threatening key objectives such as good health or broad levels of well-being, thus requiring transformative adaptation for overcoming soft limits (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.2.2.3, 4.5.3 and Cross-Chapter Box 9, Section 5.3.1) (Dow et al., 2013; Klein et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r62|62]]</sup> . The AR5 WGII risk tables, based on expert judgment, depicted the potential for, and the limits of, additional adaptation to reduce risk. Near-term (2030–2040) risks can be used as a proxy for 1.5°C warming by the end of the century and compared to longer-term (2080–2100) risks associated with an approximate 2°C warming. Building on the AR5 risk approach, Cross-Chapter Box 12, Figure 1 provides a stylised application example to poverty and inequality.

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'''Cross-Chapter Box 12, Figure 1'''

<span id="stylized-reduced-risk-levels-due-to-avoided-impacts-between-2c-and-1.5c-warming-in-solid-red-orange-additional-avoided-impacts-with-adaptation-under-2c-striped-orange-and-under-1.5c-striped-yellow-and-unavoidable-impacts-losses-with-no-or-very-limited-potential-for-adaptation-grey-extracted-from-the-ar5-wgii-risk-tables-field-et-al.-2014-63-and-underlying-chapters-by-adger-et-al.-2014-64-and-olsson-et-al.-2014-65-."></span>
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'''Stylized reduced risk levels due to avoided impacts between 2°C and 1.5°C warming (in solid red-orange), additional avoided impacts with adaptation under 2°C (striped orange) and under 1.5°C (striped yellow), and unavoidable impacts (losses) with no or very limited potential for adaptation (grey), extracted from the AR5 WGII risk tables (Field et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r63|63]]</sup> , and underlying chapters by Adger et al. (2014) <sup>[[#fn:r64|64]]</sup> and Olsson et al. (2014) <sup>[[#fn:r65|65]]</sup> .'''
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[[File:b27089f5610553e4c6c69e83732ac4ec Cross-Chapter-Box-12-Figure-1-1024x348.jpg]]

For some systems and sectors (A), achieving 1.5°C could reduce risks to low (with adaptation) from very high (without adaptation) and high (with adaptation) under 2°C. For other areas (C), no or very limited adaptation potential is anticipated, suggesting limits, with the same risks for 1.5°C and 2°C. Other risks are projected to be medium under 2°C with further potential for reduction, especially with adaptation, to very low levels (B).

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'''Limits to adaptation, residual risks, and losses in a 1.5°C warmer world'''

The literature on risks at 1.5°C (versus 2°C and more) and potentials for adaptation remains limited, particularly for specific regions, sectors, and vulnerable and disadvantaged populations. Adaptation potential at 1.5°C and 2°C is rarely assessed explicitly, making an assessment of residual risk challenging. Substantial progress has been made since the AR5 to assess which climate change impacts on natural and human systems can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions (Hansen and Stone, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r66|66]]</sup> and to examine the influence of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather events (NASEM, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r67|67]]</sup> , and on consequent impacts on human life (Mitchell et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r68|68]]</sup> , but less so on monetary losses and risks (Schaller et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r69|69]]</sup> . There has also been some limited research to examine local-level limits to adaptation (Warner and Geest, 2013; Filho and Nalau, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r70|70]]</sup> . What constitutes losses and damages is context-dependent and often requires place-based research into what people value and consider worth protecting (Barnett et al., 2016; Tschakert et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r71|71]]</sup> . Yet assessments of non-material and intangible losses are particularly challenging, such as loss of sense of place, belonging, identity, and damage to emotional and mental well-being (Serdeczny et al., 2017; Wewerinke-Singh, 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r72|72]]</sup> . Warming of 1.5°C is not considered ‘safe’ for most nations, communities, ecosystems and sectors, and poses significant risks to natural and human systems as compared to the current warming of 1°C ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4, Box 3.4, Box 3.5, Table 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 3). Table 5.2, drawing on findings from Chapters 3, 4 and 5, presents examples of soft and hard limits in natural and human systems in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C of warming.

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'''Cross-Chapter Box 12, Table 1'''

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'''Soft and hard adaptation limits in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming'''

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{| class="wikitable"
|-
! System/Region
! Example
! Soft Limit
! Hard Limit
|-
| Coral reefs
| Loss of 70–90% of tropical coral reefs by mid-century under 1.5°C scenario (total loss under 2°C scenario) (see Chapter 3, Sections 3.4.4 and 3.5.2.1, Box 3.4)
|
| ✓
|-
| Biodiversity
| 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates lose over 50% of the climatically determined geographic range at 1.5°C (18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates at 2°C) (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4.3.3)
|
| ✓
|-
| Poverty
| 24–357 million people exposed to multi-sector climate risks and vulnerable to poverty at 1.5°C (86–1220 million at 2°C) (see Section 5.2.2)
| ✓
|
|-
| Human health
| Twice as many megacities exposed to heat stress at 1.5°C compared to present, potentially exposing 350 million additional people to deadly heat wave conditions by 2050 (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4.8)
| ✓
|-
| Coastal livelihoods
| Large-scale changes in oceanic systems (temperature and acidification) inflict damage and losses to livelihoods, income, cultural identity and health for coastal-dependent communities at 1.5°C (potential higher losses at 2°C) (see Chapter 3, Sections 3.4.4, 3.4.5, 3.4.6.3, Box 3.4, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter<br />
Box 6, Chapter 4, Section 4.3.5; Section 5.2.3)
| ✓
|-
| Small Island Developing States
| Sea level rise and increased wave run up combined with increased aridity and decreased freshwater availability at 1.5°C warming potentially leaving several atoll islands uninhabitable (see Chapter 3, Sections 3.4.3, 3.4.5, Box 3.5, Chapter 4, Cross-Chapter Box 9)
|
| ✓
|}
<!-- END TABLE -->

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'''Approaches and policy options to address residual risk and loss and damage'''

Conceptual and applied work since the AR5 has highlighted the synergies and differences with adaptation and disaster risk reduction policies (van der Geest and Warner, 2015; Thomas and Benjamin, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r73|73]]</sup> , suggesting more integration of existing mechanisms, yet careful consideration is advised for slow-onset and potentially irreversible impacts and risk (Mechler and Schinko, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r74|74]]</sup> . Scholarship on justice and equity has provided insight on compensatory, distributive and procedural equity considerations for policy and practice to address loss and damage (Roser et al., 2015; Wallimann-Helmer, 2015; Huggel et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r75|75]]</sup> . A growing body of legal literature considers the role of litigation in preventing and addressing loss and damage and finds that litigation risks for governments and business are bound to increase with improved understanding of impacts and risks as climate science evolves ( ''high confidence'' ) (Mayer, 2016; Banda and Fulton, 2017; Marjanac and Patton, 2018; Wewerinke-Singh, 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r76|76]]</sup> . Policy proposals include international support for experienced losses and damages (Crosland et al., 2016; Page and Heyward, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r77|77]]</sup> , addressing climate displacement, donor-supported implementation of regional public insurance systems (Surminski et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r78|78]]</sup> and new global governance systems under the UNFCCC (Biermann and Boas, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r79|79]]</sup> .

<div id="section-5-2-3-block-5-footnotes"></div>

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# <span id="fn:br13">Olsson, L. et al., 2014: Livelihoods and Poverty. In: ''Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change'' [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 793–832.</span>
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