Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/SPM (section)

== C Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change ==

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<span id="challenges"></span>
==== Challenges ====

'''C.1. Impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere increasingly challenge current governance efforts to develop and implement adaptation responses from local to global scales, and in some cases pushing them to their limits. People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond ( ''high confidence'' ). {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.4, 3.2.4, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}'''

'''C.1.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] The temporal scales of climate change impacts in ocean and cryosphere and their societal consequences operate on time horizons which are longer than those of governance arrangements (e.g., planning cycles, public and corporate decision making cycles, and financial instruments). Such temporal differences challenge the ability of societies to adequately prepare for and respond to long-term changes including shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Examples include changing landslides and floods in high mountain regions and risks to important species and ecosystems in the Arctic, as well as to low-lying nations and islands, small island nations, other coastal regions and to coral reef ecosystems. {2.3.2, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.3, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}

'''C.1.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Governance arrangements (e.g., marine protected areas, spatial plans and water management systems) are, in many contexts, too fragmented across administrative boundaries and sectors to provide integrated responses to the increasing and cascading risks from climate-related changes in the ocean and/or cryosphere ( ''high confidence'' ). The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks ( ''high confidence'' ). In high mountains, coastal regions and small islands, there are also difficulties in coordinating climate adaptation responses, due to the many interactions of climatic and non-climatic risk drivers (such as inaccessibility, demographic and settlement trends, or land subsidence caused by local activities) across scales, sectors and policy domains ( ''high confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 3.5.3, 4.4.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Box 5.6, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1}

'''C.1.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] There are a broad range of identified barriers and limits for adaptation to climate change in ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ). Limitations include the space that ecosystems require, non-climatic drivers and human impacts that need to be addressed as part of the adaptation response, the lowering of adaptive capacity of ecosystems because of climate change, and the slower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the recurrence of climate impacts, availability of technology, knowledge and financial support, and existing governance arrangements ( ''medium confidence'' ). {3.5.4, 5.5.2}

'''C.1.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Financial, technological, institutional and other barriers exist for implementing responses to current and projected negative impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere, impeding resilience building and risk reduction measures ( ''high confidence'' ). Whether such barriers reduce adaptation effectiveness or correspond to adaptation limits depends on context specific circumstances, the rate and scale of climate changes and on the ability of societies to turn their adaptive capacity into effective adaptation responses. Adaptive capacity continues to differ between as well as within communities and societies ( ''high confidence'' ). People with highest exposure and vulnerability to current and future hazards from ocean and cryosphere changes are often also those with lowest adaptive capacity, particularly in low-lying islands and coasts, Arctic and high mountain regions with development challenges ( ''high confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.7, Box 2.4, 3.5.2, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2 and 3 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 9}

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<span id="strengthening-response-options"></span>
==== Strengthening Response Options ====

'''C.2. The far-reaching services and options provided by ocean and cryosphere-related ecosystems can be supported by protection, restoration, precautionary ecosystem-based management of renewable resource use, and the reduction of pollution and other stressors ( ''high confidence'' ). Integrated water management ( ''medium confidence'' ) and ecosystem-based adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits. However, ecological, financial, institutional and governance constraints for such actions exist ( ''high confidence'' ), and in many contexts ecosystem-based adaptation will only be effective under the lowest levels of warming ( ''high confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 3.2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.2, 5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Figure SPM.5}'''

'''C.2.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Networks of protected areas help maintain ecosystem services, including carbon uptake and storage, and enable future ecosystem-based adaptation options by facilitating the poleward and altitudinal movements of species, populations, and ecosystems that occur in response to warming and sea level rise ( ''medium confidence'' ). Geographic barriers, ecosystem degradation, habitat fragmentation and barriers to regional cooperation limit the potential for such networks to support future species range shifts in marine, high mountain and polar land regions. ( ''high confidence'' ). {2.3.3, 3.2.3, 3.3.2, 3.5.4, 5.5.2, Box 3.4}

'''C.2.2''' [[File:5f7f347d033531dcf31fbb1ace99b0a7 SPM-Icon-xoxx.png]] Terrestrial and marine habitat restoration, and ecosystem management tools such as assisted species relocation and coral gardening, can be locally effective in enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Such actions are most successful when they are community-supported, are science-based whilst also using local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, have long-term support that includes the reduction or removal of non-climatic stressors, and under the lowest levels of warming ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, coral reef restoration options may be ineffective if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, because corals are already at high risk ( ''very high confidence'' ) at current levels of warming. {2.3.3, 4.4.2, 5.3.7, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.5, Figure SPM.3}

'''C.2.3''' [[File:37d9ca019c63e0a7a080aaca0b2016e4 SPM-Icon-oxox.png]] Strengthening precautionary approaches, such as rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries, and responsiveness of existing fisheries management strategies reduces negative climate change impacts on fisheries, with benefits for regional economies and livelihoods ( ''medium confidence'' ). Fisheries management that regularly assesses and updates measures over time, informed by assessments of future ecosystem trends, reduces risks for fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ) but has limited ability to address ecosystem change. {3.2.4, 3.5.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Figure SPM.5}

'''C.2.4''' [[File:c2dab058529f43e723961cf4dccd97c2 SPM-Icon-ooxx.png]] Restoration of vegetated coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass meadows (coastal ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems), could provide climate change mitigation through increased carbon uptake and storage of around 0.5% of current global emissions annually ( ''medium confidence'' ). Improved protection and management can reduce carbon emissions from these ecosystems. Together, these actions also have multiple other benefits, such as providing storm protection, improving water quality, and benefiting biodiversity and fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ). Improving the quantification of carbon storage and greenhouse gas fluxes of these coastal ecosystems will reduce current uncertainties around measurement, reporting and verification ( ''high confidence'' ). {Box 4.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Annex I: Glossary}

'''C.2.5''' [[File:c2dab058529f43e723961cf4dccd97c2 SPM-Icon-ooxx.png]] Ocean renewable energy can support climate change mitigation, and can comprise energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, thermal and salinity gradient and algal biofuels. The emerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy sector ( ''high confidence'' ), although their potential may also be affected by climate change ( ''low confidence'' ). {5.4.2, 5.5.1, Figure 5.23}

'''C.2.6''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png]] Integrated water management approaches across multiple scales can be effective at addressing impacts and leveraging opportunities from cryosphere changes in high mountain areas. These approaches also support water resource management through the development and optimization of multi-purpose storage and release of water from reservoirs ( ''medium confidence'' ), with consideration of potentially negative impacts to ecosystems and communities. Diversification of tourism activities throughout the year supports adaptation in high mountain economies ( ''medium confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 2.3.5}

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'''C.3. Coastal communities face challenging choices in crafting context-specific and integrated responses to sea level rise that balance costs, benefits and trade-offs of available options and that can be adjusted over time ( ''high confidence'' ). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and retreat, wherever possible, can play important roles in such integrated responses ( ''high confidence'' ). {4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''

'''C.3.1.''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] The higher the sea levels rise, the more challenging is coastal protection, mainly due to economic, financial and social barriers rather than due to technical limits ( ''high confidence'' ). In the coming decades, reducing local drivers of exposure and vulnerability such as coastal urbanization and human-induced subsidence constitute effective responses ( ''high confidence'' ). Where space is limited, and the value of exposed assets is high (e.g., in cities), hard protection (e.g., dikes) is ''likely'' to be a cost-efficient response option during the 21st century taking into account the specifics of the context ( ''high confidence'' ), but resource-limited areas may not be able to afford such investments. Where space is available, ecosystem-based adaptation can reduce coastal risk and provide multiple other benefits such as carbon storage, improved water quality, biodiversity conservation and livelihood support ( ''medium confidence'' ). {4.3.2, 4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}

'''C.3.2''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Some coastal accommodation measures, such as early warning systems and flood-proofing of buildings, are often both low cost and highly cost-efficient under current sea levels ( ''high confidence'' ). Under projected sea level rise and increase in coastal hazards some of these measures become less effective unless combined with other measures ( ''high confidence'' ). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and planned relocation, if alternative localities are available, can play important roles in such integrated responses ( ''high confidence'' ). Where the community affected is small, or in the aftermath of a disaster, reducing risk by coastal planned relocations is worth considering if safe alternative localities are available. Such planned relocation can be socially, culturally, financially and politically constrained ( ''very high confidence'' ). {4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SPM B3}

'''C.3.3''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Responses to sea level rise and associated risk reduction present society with profound governance challenges, resulting from the uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of future sea level rise, vexing trade-offs between societal goals (e.g., safety, conservation, economic development, intra- and inter-generational equity), limited resources, and conflicting interests and values among diverse stakeholders ( ''high confidence'' ). These challenges can be eased using locally appropriate combinations of decision analysis, land-use planning, public participation, diverse knowledge systems and conflict resolution approaches that are adjusted over time as circumstances change ( ''high confidence'' ). {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9}

'''C.3.4''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Despite the large uncertainties about the magnitude and rate of post 2050 sea level rise, many coastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now (e.g., critical infrastructure, coastal protection works, city planning) and can be improved by taking relative sea level rise into account, favouring flexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) supported by monitoring systems for early warning signals, periodically adjusting decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making), using robust decision-making approaches, expert judgement, scenario-building, and multiple knowledge systems ( ''high confidence'' ). The sea level rise range that needs to be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders. Stakeholders with higher risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily adapted to unforeseen conditions) often prefer to use the ''likely'' range of projections, while stakeholders with a lower risk tolerance (e.g., those deciding on critical infrastructure) also consider global and local mean sea level above the upper end of the ''likely'' range (globally 1.1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100) and from methods characterised by lower confidence such as from expert elicitation. {1.8.1, 1.9.2, 4.2.3, 4.4.4, Figure 4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Figure SPM.5, SPM B3}

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'''Figure SPM.5 | a, b'''

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'''Figure SPM.5 | Sea level rise risks and responses. The term response is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation. (a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme […]'''
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[[File:7a27bc34a0dcbce2611bddbf41dff53e SROCC_SPM5ab_Final_RGB.jpg]]

Figure SPM.5 | Sea level rise risks and responses. The term response is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation. (a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme sea levels under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and under two response scenarios. Risks under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 were not assessed due to a lack of literature for the assessed geographies. The assessment does not account for changes in extreme sea level beyond those directly induced by mean sea level rise; risk levels could increase if other changes in extreme sea levels were considered (e.g., due to changes in cyclone intensity). Panel a) considers a socioeconomic scenario with relatively stable coastal population density over the century. {SM4.3.2} Risks to illustrative geographies have been assessed based on relative sea level changes projected for a set of specific examples: New York City, Shanghai and Rotterdam for resource-rich coastal cities covering a wide range of response experiences; South Tarawa, Fongafale and Male’ for urban atoll islands; Mekong and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna for large tropical agricultural deltas; and Bykovskiy, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Tuktoyaktuk and Shingle Point for Arctic communities located in regions remote from rapid glacio-isostatic adjustment. {4.2, 4.3.4, SM4.2} The assessment distinguishes between two contrasting response scenarios. “No-to-moderate response” describes efforts as of today (i.e., no further significant action or new types of actions). “Maximum potential response” represents a combination of responses implemented to their full extent and thus significant additional efforts compared to today, assuming minimal financial, social and political barriers. The assessment has been conducted for each sea level rise and response scenario, as indicated by the burning embers in the figure; in-between risk levels are interpolated. {4.3.3} The assessment criteria include exposure and vulnerability (density of assets, level of degradation of terrestrial and marine buffer ecosystems), coastal hazards (flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization), in-situ responses (hard engineered coastal defenses, ecosystem restoration or creation of new natural buffers areas, and subsidence management) and planned relocation. Planned relocation refers to managed retreat or resettlement as described in Chapter 4, i.e., proactive and local-scale measures to reduce risk by relocating people, assets and infrastructure. Forced displacement is not considered in this assessment. Panel a) also highlights the relative contributions of in-situ responses and planned relocation to the total risk reduction. (b) schematically illustrates the risk reduction (vertical arrows) and risk delay (horizontal arrows) through mitigation and/or responses to sea level rise. (c) summarizes and assesses responses to sea level rise in terms of their effectiveness, costs, co-benefits, drawbacks, economic efficiency and associated governance challenges. {4.4.2} (d) presents generic steps of an adaptive decision-making approach, as well as key enabling conditions for responses to sea level rise. {4.4.4, 4.4.5}

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'''Figure SPM.5 | c, d'''

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'''Figure SPM.5 | Sea level rise risks and responses. The term response is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation. (a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme […]'''
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[[File:639ee85c6aae6622274d1de479f69a94 SROCC_SPM5cd_Final_RGB-1938x3000.jpg]]

Figure SPM.5 | Sea level rise risks and responses. The term response is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation. (a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme sea levels under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and under two response scenarios. Risks under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 were not assessed due to a lack of literature for the assessed geographies. The assessment does not account for changes in extreme sea level beyond those directly induced by mean sea level rise; risk levels could increase if other changes in extreme sea levels were considered (e.g., due to changes in cyclone intensity). Panel a) considers a socioeconomic scenario with relatively stable coastal population density over the century. {SM4.3.2} Risks to illustrative geographies have been assessed based on relative sea level changes projected for a set of specific examples: New York City, Shanghai and Rotterdam for resource-rich coastal cities covering a wide range of response experiences; South Tarawa, Fongafale and Male’ for urban atoll islands; Mekong and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna for large tropical agricultural deltas; and Bykovskiy, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Tuktoyaktuk and Shingle Point for Arctic communities located in regions remote from rapid glacio-isostatic adjustment. {4.2, 4.3.4, SM4.2} The assessment distinguishes between two contrasting response scenarios. “No-to-moderate response” describes efforts as of today (i.e., no further significant action or new types of actions). “Maximum potential response” represents a combination of responses implemented to their full extent and thus significant additional efforts compared to today, assuming minimal financial, social and political barriers. The assessment has been conducted for each sea level rise and response scenario, as indicated by the burning embers in the figure; in-between risk levels are interpolated. {4.3.3} The assessment criteria include exposure and vulnerability (density of assets, level of degradation of terrestrial and marine buffer ecosystems), coastal hazards (flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization), in-situ responses (hard engineered coastal defenses, ecosystem restoration or creation of new natural buffers areas, and subsidence management) and planned relocation. Planned relocation refers to managed retreat or resettlement as described in Chapter 4, i.e., proactive and local-scale measures to reduce risk by relocating people, assets and infrastructure. Forced displacement is not considered in this assessment. Panel a) also highlights the relative contributions of in-situ responses and planned relocation to the total risk reduction. (b) schematically illustrates the risk reduction (vertical arrows) and risk delay (horizontal arrows) through mitigation and/or responses to sea level rise. (c) summarizes and assesses responses to sea level rise in terms of their effectiveness, costs, co-benefits, drawbacks, economic efficiency and associated governance challenges. {4.4.2} (d) presents generic steps of an adaptive decision-making approach, as well as key enabling conditions for responses to sea level rise. {4.4.4, 4.4.5}

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<span id="enabling-conditions"></span>
==== Enabling Conditions ====

'''C.4. Enabling climate resilience and sustainable development depends critically on urgent and ambitious emissions reductions coupled with coordinated sustained and increasingly ambitious adaptation actions ( ''very high confidence'' ). Key enablers for implementing effective responses to climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere include intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across spatial scales and planning horizons. Education and climate literacy, monitoring and forecasting, use of all available knowledge sources, sharing of data, information and knowledge, finance, addressing social vulnerability and equity, and institutional support are also essential. Such investments enable capacity-building, social learning, and participation in context-specific adaptation, as well as the negotiation of trade-offs and realisation of co-benefits in reducing short-term risks and building long-term resilience and sustainability ( ''high confidence'' ). This report reflects the state of science for ocean and cryosphere for low levels of global warming (1.5°C), as also assessed in earlier IPCC and IPBES reports. {1.1, 1.5, 1.8.3, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Figure 2.7, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4, 5.2.2, Box 5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.8, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''

'''C.4.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] In light of observed and projected changes in the ocean and cryosphere, many nations will face challenges to adapt, even with ambitious mitigation ( ''very high confidence'' ). In a high emissions scenario, many ocean- and cryosphere-dependent communities are projected to face adaptation limits (e.g. biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political and institutional) during the second half of the 21st century. Low emission pathways, for comparison, limit the risks from ocean and cryosphere changes in this century and beyond and enable more effective responses ( ''high confidence'' ), whilst also creating co-benefits. Profound economic and institutional transformative change will enable Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the ocean and cryosphere context ( ''high confidence'' ). {1.1, 1.4–1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.4, Box 3.2, Figure 3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3, 3.4.3, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.6, 5.4.2, 5.5.3, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}

'''C.4.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise ( ''high confidence'' ). Regional cooperation, including treaties and conventions, can support adaptation action; however, the extent to which responding to impacts and losses arising from changes in the ocean and cryosphere is enabled through regional policy frameworks is currently limited ''(high confidence'' ). Institutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Coordination and complementarity between national and transboundary regional policies can support efforts to address risks to resource security and management, such as water and fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Box 2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9.2}

'''C.4.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Experience to date – for example, in responding to sea level rise, water-related risks in some high mountains, and climate change risks in the Arctic – also reveal the enabling influence of taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of context-specific risks beyond 2050 ( ''high confidence'' ), and building governance capabilities to tackle complex risks ( ''medium confidence'' ). {2.3.1, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9, Figure SPM.5}

'''C.4.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Investments in education and capacity building at various levels and scales facilitates social learning and long-term capability for context-specific responses to reduce risk and enhance resilience ( ''high confidence'' ). Specific activities include utilization of multiple knowledge systems and regional climate information into decision making, and the engagement of local communities, Indigenous peoples, and relevant stakeholders in adaptive governance arrangements and planning frameworks ( ''medium confidence).'' Promotion of climate literacy and drawing on local, Indigenous and scientific knowledge systems enables public awareness, understanding and social learning about locality-specific risk and response potential ( ''high confidence'' ). Such investments can develop, and in many cases transform existing institutions and enable informed, interactive and adaptive governance arrangements ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' {1.8.3, 2.3.2, Figure 2.7, Box 2.4, 2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9}

'''C.4.5''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Context-specific monitoring and forecasting of changes in the ocean and the cryosphere informs adaptation planning and implementation, and facilitates robust decisions on trade-offs between short- and long-term gains ( ''medium confidence'' ). Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data, information and knowledge and improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems to predict more extreme El Niño/La Niña events, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, help to manage negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses in fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security, agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, conservation, drought and flood ( ''high confidence'' ). {2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 4.4.4, 5.5.2, 6.3.1, 6.3.3, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.9}

'''C.4.6''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Prioritising measures to address social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development ( ''high confidence'' ), and can be helped by creating safe community settings for meaningful public participation, deliberation and conflict resolution ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Box 2.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, Figure SPM.5}

'''C.4.7''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] This assessment of the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate reveals the benefits of ambitious mitigation and effective adaptation for sustainable development and, conversely, the escalating costs and risks of delayed action. The potential to chart Climate Resilient Development Pathways varies within and among ocean, high mountain and polar land regions. Realising this potential depends on transformative change. This highlights the urgency of prioritising timely, ambitious, coordinated and enduring action. ( ''very high confidence'' ) {1.1, 1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, 2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.3.4, 4.4, Table 4.9, 5.5, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9 ''',''' Figure SPM.5}

<span id="citation"></span>