Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.1.1 Hazards ====

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Since the mid-20th century, extreme warm temperatures have increased and extreme cold temperatures have decreased in the region ( ''medium confidence'' ). The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events have increased, but droughts have mixed signals ( ''low confidence'' ) (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Table 11.14, Table 11.15, [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Spatially variable trends have been detected for the MSD timing, the amount of rainy-season precipitation, the number of consecutive and total dry days and extreme wet events at the local scale since the 1980s. At the regional scale, a positive trend in the duration, but not the magnitude, of the MSD was found ( [[#Anderson--2019|Anderson et al., 2019]] ).

Significant increases in tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates in the Atlantic basin, highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations, have been observed ( [[#Bhatia--2019|Bhatia et al., 2019]] ). TCs contributed approximately 10% of the annual precipitation ( [[#Khouakhi--2017|Khouakhi et al., 2017]] ). During the TC season more TC-driven events of extreme sea level exceed a 10-year return period ( [[#Muis--2019|Muis et al., 2019]] ).

Massive heatwave events and increase in the frequency of warm extremes are projected at the end of the 21st century ( ''high confidence'' ). When comparing 2.0°C with 1.5°C of warming, the longest annual warm wave is projected to increase more than 60 d ( [[#Taylor--2018|Taylor et al., 2018]] ).

General decrease in the magnitude of heavy precipitation extremes ( [[#Chou--2014|Chou et al., 2014]] ; [[#Giorgi--2014|Giorgi et al., 2014]] ) (in 1.5°C projection) but increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation (R50mm) ( [[#Imbach--2018|Imbach et al., 2018]] ) are projected for both 2°C and 4°C global warming level (GWL). Strong declines in mean daily rainfall are projected for July in Belize ( [[#Stennett-Brown--2017|Stennett-Brown et al., 2017]] ; WGI AR6 Table 11.14, [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ) and decreased rainfall through the year for all capital cities except Panama City ( ''medium confidence: limited evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Pinzón--2017|Pinzón et al., 2017]] ).

The main climate impact drivers like extreme heat, drought, relative SLR, coastal flooding, erosion, marine heatwaves, ocean aridity ( ''high confidence'' ) and aridity, drought and wildfires will increase by mid-century ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 12.6, WGI AR6 Table 12.6, [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

The rainy season in CA will likely experience more pronounced MSD by the end of this century, with a signal for reduced minimum precipitation by mid-century for the June July August (JJA) and September October November (SON) quarters, and a broader second peak is projected, consistent with the future south displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fuentes-Franco--2015|Fuentes-Franco et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hidalgo--2017|Hidalgo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Maurer--2017|Maurer et al., 2017]] ; [[#Imbach--2018|Imbach et al., 2018]] ; [[#Naumann--2018|Naumann et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ribalaygua--2018|Ribalaygua et al., 2018]] ; [[#Corrales-Suastegui--2020|Corrales-Suastegui et al., 2020]] ).

Climate projections indicate a decrease in frequency of TCs in CA accompanied by an increased frequency of intense cyclones (WGI AR6 [[#12.4|Section 12.4.4.3]] , [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

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