Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.4.2.2 Wind Energy ====

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Wind power is increasingly competitive with other forms of electricity generation and is the low-cost option in many applications ( ''high confidence'' ). Costs have declined by 18% and 40% on land and offshore since 2015 ( ''high confidence'' ), and further reductions can be expected by 2030 ( ''medium confidence'' ). Critical areas for continued improvement are technology advancements and economies of scale ( ''high confidence'' ). Global future potential is primarily limited by onshore land availability in wind power-rich areas, lack of supporting infrastructure, grid integration, and access to finance (especially in developing countries) ( ''high confidence'' ).

Energy from wind is abundant, and the estimated technical potentials surpass the total amount of energy needed to limit warming to well below 2°C ( ''high confidence'' ). Recent global estimates of potentially exploitable wind energy resource are in the range of 557–717 PWh yr –1 (2005–2580 EJ yr –1 ) ( [[#Eurek--2017|Eurek et al. 2017]] ; [[#Bosch--2017|Bosch et al. 2017]] , 2018; [[#McKenna--2022|McKenna et al. 2022]] ), or 20–30 times the 2017 global electricity demand. Studies have suggested that ‘bottom-up’ approaches may overestimate technical potentials ( [[#Miller--2015|Miller et al. 2015]] ; [[#Kleidon--2020|Kleidon and Miller 2020]] ). But even in the most conservative ‘top-down’ approaches, the technical wind potential surpasses the amount needed to limit warming to well below 2°C ( [[#Bosch--2017|Bosch et al. 2017]] ; [[#Eurek--2017|Eurek et al. 2017]] ; [[#Volker--2017|Volker et al. 2017]] ). The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3°C–0.8°C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed ( [[#Barthelmie--2021|Barthelmie and Pryor 2021]] ). Wind resources are unevenly distributed over the globe and by time of the year ( [[#Petersen--2012|Petersen and Troen 2012]] ), but potential hotspots exist on every continent (Figure 6.10) as expressed by the wind power density (a quantitative measure of wind energy available at any location). Technical potentials for onshore wind power vary considerably, often because of inconsistent assessments of suitability factors ( [[#McKenna--2020|McKenna et al. 2020]] ). The potential for offshore wind power is larger than for onshore because offshore wind is stronger and less variable ( [[#Bosch--2018|Bosch et al. 2018]] ). Offshore wind is more expensive, however, because of higher costs for construction, maintenance, and transmission. Wind power varies at a range of time scales, from annual to sub-seconds; the effects of local short-term variability can be offset by power plant control, flexible grid integration, and storage ( [[#Barra--2021|Barra et al. 2021]] ) ( [[#6.4.3|Section 6.4.3]] ). In some regions, interannual variations in wind energy resources could be important for optimal power system design ( [[#Wohland--2019a|Wohland et al. 2019a]] ; [[#Coker--2020|Coker et al. 2020]] ).

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[[File:c03fe1e68939f3f24ccef6fd14c4e238 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_6_10.png]]

'''Figure 6.10 | Mean wind power density [W m''' –2 '''] at 100 m above ground level over land and within 100 km of the coastline.''' Source: Global Wind Atlas, available at: https://globalwindatlas.info/ .

Wind power cost reductions (Figure 6.11) are driven mainly by larger capacity turbines, larger rotor diameters and taller hub heights – larger swept areas increase the energy captured and the capacity factors for a given wind speed; taller towers provide access to higher wind speeds ( [[#Beiter--2021|Beiter et al. 2021]] ). All major onshore wind markets have experienced rapid growth in both rotor diameter (from 81.2 m in 2010 to 120 m in 2020) ( [[#IRENA--2021b|IRENA 2021b]] ), and average power ratings (from 1.9 MW in 2010 to 3 MW in 2020). The generation capacity of offshore wind turbines grew by a factor of 3.7 in less than two decades, from 1.6 MW in 2000 to 6 MW in 2020 ( [[#Wiser--2021|Wiser et al. 2021]] ). Floating foundations could revolutionise offshore wind power by tapping into the abundant wind potential in deeper waters. This technology is particularly important for regions where coastal waters are too deep for fixed-bottom wind turbines. Floating wind farms potentially offer economic and environmental benefits compared with fixed-bottom designs due to less-invasive activity on the seabed during installation, but the long-term ecological effects are unknown and meteorological conditions further offshore and in deeper waters are harsher on wind turbine components ( [[#IRENA--2019c|IRENA 2019c]] ). A radical new class of wind energy converters has also been conceived under the name of airborne wind energy systems that can harvest strong, high-altitude winds (typically between 200–800m), which are inaccessible by traditional wind turbines ( [[#Cherubini--2015|Cherubini et al. 2015]] ). This technology has seen development and testing of small devices ( [[#Watson--2019|Watson et al. 2019]] ).

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[[File:636879f79fab6aaa32ece8519dc633fe IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_6_11.png]]

'''Figure 6.11 | Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors, and LCOE for onshore (top) and offshore (bottom) wind power of existing power plants per year (2010–2020).''' The shaded area represents the 5th and 95th percentiles, and the red dashed line represents the fossil fuel cost range. Source: with permission from [[#IRENA--2021a|IRENA (2021a)]] .

Wind capacity factors have increased over the last decade (Figure 6.11). The capacity factor for onshore wind farms increased from 27% in 2010 to 36% in 2020 ( [[#IRENA--2021a|IRENA 2021a]] ). The global average offshore capacity factor has decreased from a peak of 45% in 2017. This has been driven by the increased share of offshore development in China, where projects are often near-shore and use smaller wind turbines than in Europe ( [[#IRENA--2021b|IRENA 2021b]] ). Improvements in capacity factors also come from increased functionality of wind turbines and wind farms. Manufactures can adapt the wind turbine generator to the wind conditions. Turbines for windy sites have smaller generators and smaller specific capacity per rotor area, and therefore operate more efficiently and reach full capacity for a longer time period ( [[#Rohrig--2019|Rohrig et al. 2019]] ).

Electricity from onshore wind is less expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels in a growing number of markets ( ''high confidence'' ). The global average LCOE onshore declined by 38% from 2010 to 2020 (Figure 6.11), reaching USD0.039 kWh –1 . However, the decrease in cost varies substantially by region. Since 2014, wind costs have declined more rapidly than the majority of experts predicted ( [[#Wiser--2021|Wiser et al. 2021]] ). New modelling projects onshore wind LCOE of USD.037 kWh –1 by 2030 ( [[#Junginger--2020a|Junginger et al. 2020a]] ), and additional reductions of 37–39% have been predicted by 2050 ( [[#Wiser--2021|Wiser et al. 2021]] ). The future cost of offshore wind is more uncertain because other aspects besides increases in capacity factors influence the cost ( [[#Junginger--2020b|Junginger et al. 2020b]] ).

The cost of the turbine (including the towers) makes up the largest component of wind LCOE. Total installed costs for both onshore and offshore wind farms have decreased since 2015 (Figure 6.11), but the total installed costs for onshore wind projects are very site- and market-specific, as reflected in the range of LCOEs. China, India, and the USA have experienced the largest declines in total installed costs. In 2020, typical country-average total installed costs were around USD1150 kW –1 in China and India, and between USD1403–2472 kW –1 elsewhere ( [[#IRENA--2021b|IRENA 2021b]] ). Total installed costs of offshore wind farms declined by 12% between 2010 and 2020. But, because some of the new offshore wind projects have moved to deeper waters and further offshore, there are considerable year-to-year variations in their price ( [[#IRENA--2021b|IRENA 2021b]] ). Projects outside China in recent years have typically been built in deeper waters (10–55 m) and up to 120 km offshore, compared to around 10 m in 2001–2006, when distances rarely exceeded 20 km. With the shift to deeper waters and sites further from ports, the total installed costs of offshore wind farms rose, from an average of around USD2500 kW –1 in 2000 to around USD5127 kW –1 by 2011–2014, before falling to around USD3185 kW –1 in 2020 ( [[#IRENA--2020a|IRENA 2020a]] ). The full cost of wind power includes the transmission and system integration costs (Sections 6.4.3 and 6.4.6). A new technology in development is the co-location of wind and solar PV power farms, also known as hybrid power plants. Co-locating wind, solar PV, and batteries can lead to synergies in electricity generation, infrastructure, and land usage, which may lower the overall plant cost compared to single technology systems ( [[#Lindberg--2021|Lindberg et al. 2021]] ).

Wind power plants pose relatively low environmental impact, but sometimes locally significant ecological effects ( ''high confidence'' ). The environmental impact of wind technologies, including CO 2 emissions, is concentrated in the manufacturing, transport, and building stage and in disposal as the end-of-life of wind turbines is reached (Liu and Barlow 2017; [[#Mishnaevsky--2021|Mishnaevsky 2021]] ). The operation of wind turbines produces no waste or pollutants. The LCA for wind turbines is strongly influenced by the operating lifetime, quality of wind resources, conversion efficiency, and size of the wind turbines ( [[#Kaldellis--2017|Kaldellis and Apostolou 2017]] ; [[#Laurent--2018|Laurent et al. 2018]] ). All wind power technologies repay their carbon footprint in less than a year ( [[#Bonou--2016|Bonou et al. 2016]] ).

Wind farms can cause local ecological impacts, including on animal habitat and movements, biological concerns, bird and bat fatalities from collisions with rotating blades, and health concerns ( [[#Morrison--2004|Morrison and Sinclair 2004]] ). The impacts on animal habitats and collisions can be resolved or reduced by selectively stopping some wind turbines in high-risk locations, often without affecting the productivity of the wind farm ( [[#de%20Lucas--2012|de Lucas et al. 2012]] ). Many countries now require environmental studies of impacts of wind turbines on wildlife prior to project development, and, in some regions, shutdowns are required during active bird migration ( [[#de%20Lucas--2012|de Lucas et al. 2012]] ). Offshore wind farms can also impact migratory birds and other sea species ( [[#Hooper--2017|Hooper et al. 2017]] ). Floating foundations pose lower environmental impacts at build stage ( [[#IRENA--2019c|IRENA 2019c]] ), but their cumulative long-term impacts are unclear ( [[#Goodale--2016|Goodale and Milman 2016]] ). Recent studies find weak associations between wind farm noise and measures of long-term human health ( [[#Poulsen--2018a|Poulsen et al. 2018a]] , b, 2019a, b).

Public support for onshore and particularly offshore wind energy is generally high, although people may oppose specific wind farm projects ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., Bell et al. 2005; Batel and Devine-Wright 2015; [[#Rand--2017|Rand and Hoen 2017]] ; [[#Steg--2018|Steg 2018]] ). People generally believe that wind energy is associated with environmental benefits and that it is relatively cheap. Yet, some people believe wind turbines can cause noise and visual aesthetic pollution, threaten places of symbolic value ( [[#Devine-Wright--2020|Devine-Wright and Wiersma 2020]] ; [[#Russell--2020|Russell et al. 2020]] ), and have adverse effects on wildlife ( [[#Bates--2015|Bates and Firestone 2015]] ), which challenges public acceptability ( [[#Rand--2017|Rand and Hoen 2017]] ). Support for local wind projects is higher when people believe fair decision-making procedures have been implemented ( [[#Dietz--2008|Dietz and Stern 2008]] ; [[#Aitken--2010a|Aitken 2010a]] ). Evidence is mixed whether distance from wind turbines or financial compensation increases public acceptability of wind turbines ( [[#Cass--2010|Cass et al. 2010]] ; [[#Rand--2017|Rand and Hoen 2017]] ; [[#Rudolph--2018|Rudolph et al. 2018]] ; [[#Hoen--2019|Hoen et al. 2019]] ). Offshore wind farms projects have higher public support, but can also face resistance ( [[#Bidwell--2017|Bidwell 2017]] ; [[#Rudolph--2018|Rudolph et al. 2018]] ).

Common economic barriers to wind development are high initial cost of capital, long payback periods, and inadequate access to capital. Optimal wind energy expansion is most likely to occur in the presence of a political commitment to establish, maintain, and improve financial support instruments, technological efforts to support a local supply chains, and grid investments integrate VRE electricity ( [[#Diógenes--2020|Diógenes et al. 2020]] ).

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